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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    On the face of it yes but look at some of the alternatives


    Put it into housing.........questionable as an investment now especially given how one sided the law is in favour of tenants vs small landlords and the price its at....if you are going to live in it and mortgage less than rent + it's a more secure environment then fine but some of those buyers may be sitting on fence expecting it to be cheaper albeit with higher interest rates on any mortgage


    Stocks/shares/etfs ...... not a favourable tax regime for individual investor in this country + they could be taking a bigger haircut in the near term given how inflated their value has become due to money printing QE .....


    Crypto ponzi......better have inside info to not get burned or know the horse to back and be a true believer in a particular utility to be satisfied there.


    Precious metals.....not great performers


    Govt bonds....perhaps but you are locked in for a term afaik? Some may think there's going to be a wallop soon and better to be liquid


    If you haven't started a pension and are eligible for the high tax relief it might not be a bad shout (depending on personal circumstances)


    Prizebonds maybe....they ain't keeping up with inflation either


    From this amateurs perspective thats about it ..... some might rather gamble, keep funds liquid in an account and wait.......for an opportunity that may never materialise admittedly



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Lagarde's new plan is to buy more toxic debt if the bond rates go high enough. Seen as no one else is buying them, she is openly suggesting price manipulation of the financial bond market's. They will be doing it with the stock market next.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    **** me Japan's 10 YR bond just went up 80% in 10 minutes. Unreal times !


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    That's the yield going up right? So everyone is selling them? Why the 10 year though? Surely it would be the 2 year one? What are they buying instead?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,963 ✭✭✭kevthegaff




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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    You know what I've noticed in our business in the last couple months, alot of our suppliers are reigning in our credit terms and limits. It's getting jittery out there and the risk analysis is don't carry so much debtors. I haven't seen this since the last recession, it's a big indicator to me of the direction of the domestic economy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Some hedge fund, called bluejay, are putting pressure on the Bank of Japan.


    It's may only be a Matter of time before someone calls out the complete lunacy of the ECB and Euro and gets into a pissing contest as they try to make an epic fortune.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Cash flow is a real problem for people, well the worry of it rolling too far.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Whatever about your claims having no evidence, why would you want them to be true in the first place? Do you honestly believe the life of the average person would be better under the influence of Chinese and Russian government?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,386 ✭✭✭GiftofGab


    The yield is pretty much the return on your investments.

    During times of stress, there's a flight to quality, so investors will sell risky assets and purchase safe assets such as the US Treasury Note or Bill.

    Here we're seeing sellers lowering their prices of Japanese bonds so they can purchase more safe assets. The lower the price, the higher the yield.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Which is why institutional money is pouring out of the markets and crypto.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    More cyncially, there's some funny business going on with a hedge fund who have taken a massive short position against Japanese government bonds via derivitives.

    Essentially they're trying to Gamestop the Bank of Japan.

    Now whatever your opinion on short-selling, it's one thing trying to short Tesla (which short sellers lost their shirt on after a huge battle to the delight of Musk) but to it to the third largest economy in the world...

    There was a big short-sell play against Japanese bonds earlier on in the year in which the short sellers had to admit defeat



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,067 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    inflation will ease with interest rate hikes but we are already seeing damage it can do ! Cost of living can be handled in multiple ways..just coz it will erode cash value does not mean people deploy cash in risky investments..risk aversion is a thing !



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Inflation will not ease unless energy costs fall, I don't see that happening. The days of cheap energy and goods look to be over.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Interesting comments from J Powell in the US 🤔

    Bolded piece I think is VERY telling. Meanwhile the ECB are "warning" of a house price correction if they raise rates 🙄

    "We saw [home] prices moving up very very strongly for the last couple of years. So that changes now. And rates have moved up. We are well aware that mortgage rates have moved up a lot. And you are seeing a changing housing market. We are watching it to see what will happen. How much will it really affect residential investment? Not really sure. How much will it affect housing prices? Not really sure. Obviously, we are watching that quite carefully…It’s a very tight market. So prices might keep going up for a while, even in a world where rates are up. So it’s a complicated situation and we watch it very carefully. I'd say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again."




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Do most young people want to return to what affordable housing means?


    There is a lot of positions and views on society etc that will have to be dropped if they want it and a functioning society and economy in a world where free money on tap is not available for every initiative or cause.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Japan hold's interest rates as before. Looks like never ending money printing, falling currency and rising prices for it's citizens. They are trapped as well.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Japan hasn't had inflation to speak of for nearly 3 decades.

    The inflation they are experiencing now (around the 2 percent mark), actually suits them for the moment and is something they have been targetting for a long time. They've got it in a roundabout way so it wouldn't make sense for them to hike interest rates.

    Japan is a very different economy with a unique set of challenges. I wouldn't take what's going on in the US or or eurozone as a guide for what Japan should be doing.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Has Japan not been in stagflation for decades? I was obver there for the world cup(maybe not comparative to normal living) and I found it crazy expensive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Stagflation persisted for a number of years after their bubble popped in the 90s.

    But meeting any sort of inflation targets has been a struggle for them for the last decade and a half or more.

    Japan isn't as expensive as many would imagine any more (bar some odd items like fruit which remain ridiculously expensive).



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Recession starting not when politicians says It Started.

    Recession starting when everybody start speak about recession.

    So basically recession are here already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Reminds me more of those WW2 movies from the Pacific when they were flying planes into battleships screaming " BANZAI "


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Recession is not a subjective thing. Recession has a specific definition and you are either in a recession or not.

    We are not in a recession now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Can we do the same graph for Ireland ? Because interest rates are going to rise with the caveat of public spending increasing and tax cuts for workers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Remarkably, Japan's debt over the years is sustainable and serviceable. It does mean their domestic economy continues to be sluggish and has exhibited low-growth. But how the Japanese economy is structured is pretty unique on a number of levels.

    They are deeply invested in the health of the US dollar and own trillions in extremely safe US Federal debt.

    Their financial institutions are huge, have diversified investments all over the world in critical sectors, and bankroll their large corporates to weather almost any storm (to the point of keeping uncompetitive firms on life support, but stability is the order of the day). There is an extremely high degree of coordination between their financial institutions and the government to ensure they don't go off the reservation.

    There may be a reckoning day for the Japanese economy given their unfavorable demographics and unwillingness to reform their labour market etc, but it seems a long way off for now.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We Are

    Ordinary question Do you believe what government officials and main media experts are saying ?

    Just Simple and short answer please Yes or No.

    If you will answer Yes we will finish talking about recession

    If No then you should understand that we are in recession and all what government and media which represents business do is try tell lie to avoid panic and save financial stability wining little bit more time saving or earning money.

    And if any politician from majority which will open his mouth will loose his seat on next election ?


    Read this carefully please :


    The bad news is that GDP is increasingly removed from the real feel of the Irish economy and the upcoming period will probably see household budgets fray even if the headline indicators stay positive. 

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Paschal O Donoghue standing there and saying the economy will continue to grow is just spouting the GDP. A GDP that is so pumped up from multinationals running their global profits through Ireland will never tell the true picture. It ignores what is really happening on the ground.



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