FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

GFS ensemble for the next 2 weeks is as wet as i've ever seen for 'summer'.

I'm starting to get a real Summer of 2007 vibe from the latest set of charts/models. This is going to be a wet June. I think it's safe to say the year long relatively dry and warm pattern is well and truly over since the 3rd week of May and this looks like continuing well into June, possibly getting to the 3rd week of June.

GFS 00z gives a slight hint towards things settling down at the very end of it's run. It stays very unsettled until June 18th and finally we get a ridge in from the Azores by the 20th. Some very small baby steps towards summer.

The CFS extended is also looking to build some warmth and high pressure around a similar time. It's worth noting this is very unreliable stuff.

I feel like it's mid winter and i'm back clutching at straws again wishing against the power of the Atlantic.

GFS is starting to hint at an improving situation in the weather after a very dissapointing start to the summer so far. Up to a day or two ago, this coming weekend was looking like a washout but not it's not looking too bad and could stay mostly dry. Great news for those heading to the Duran Duran outdoor gig on Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure should keep us mostly dry from Sunday afternoon and much of next week is looking dry especially in southern and eastern areas.

Monday and Tuesday should stay dry throughout the country courtesy of that ridge. After Tuesday things get a bit uncertain in how settled we get or does the Atlantic roll in. Currently it's looking like the Atlantic may actually have a battle on it's hands with this high pressure. The GFS 6z keeps the ridge going over eastern, southern, south-western and central parts of the country.

The far north and north-west of the country may be more unsettled with Atlantic systems closeby to our north-west during Wednesday and Thursday. It remains to be seen if the high pressure will win and push these frontal systems away from the north-west or will the Atlantic win and topple over us resuming an unsettled pattern.

On This mornings models the high pressure wins the battle for a while and briefly introduces medium to signifcant levels of heat throughout the country next Saturday. For now I would still take this with a major bucket of salt. It wouldn't take much adjustment for these big lows in the Atlantic to cut us off from the warmth and sunshine.

Temperatures would reach mid to high 20s widely across the country next Saturday if this verified with a 30C possible for Shannon Airport. In reality we are unlikely to get this lucky and even if we do, this warm pulse of air won't last very long over us.

In terms of rainfall the next 10 days could be largely dry with most of the rain falling between now and Saturday night. There is a chance southern and eastern areas will remain fairly dry throughout the coming week.

From next Sunday the models suggest things will be turning signifcantly cooler again as the Atlantic wins the battle at the very end and we are instantly cut off from any warmth.

In the very extended range we open up the artic expressway with a direct notherly plunge, the sort of thing we dream about all winter and never get.

If this verified it would turn things very cool indeed and plenty of showers or rain as it isn't the dry northerly topplers we get in winter. This would be a snowmaker if it was November to March with those areas of low pressures d.

We finish up week 3 of June on a very cool and unsettled note.

Difficult to determine how next weekend will pan out. Could be a case of 2 halves, warm and settled on Saturday and cold and wet on the Sunday. We will need a few more days before we know what will happen. From Sunday it looks mostly dry but the models do indicate things turning unsettled very quickly through next weekend as we get a sudden breakdown from very warm to cool and this could be potentially thundery as well.

From midweek temperatures will lift up, but there is alot of scatter involved in how warm or even hot it could get by Friday or Saturday. Thiswarm spell looks rather short lived maybe not lasting more than 2 or 3 days at most but we are looking at anything from low to medium level warmth up to high level.

let's see what this evenings ECM brings. ECM this morning was also very warm for next weekend but more high pressure orientated rather than plumey burst of short lived heat.

Been away for the past 2 days and only taken a first look at the charts since Friday night. The following few days will warm up particularly across southern and eastern parts of the country. Unfortunately it does look like the far west and north-west of the country will not get any of this warmth so the country will be a north-west to south-east split up to Saturday with temperatueres generally 19 to 22C across the south and east from Wednesday and possibly getting to 24 or 25C on Friday. A 26C may happen in one of two places.

Temperatures on Wednesday getting up to around 20C from Limerick to Dundalk and it will remain mostly dry throughout this week, however a few light passing showers may occur if they get inland far enough. North and West of that line it will be cooler 13C to 18C and more unsettled with showers particularly across western coasts and Donegal.

Thursday will see the warmth build across the south, southwest, midwest, midland and east with temperatures generally 19 to 23C. A 23 or 24C is possible at Shannon Airport on Thursday. In a line north and west from Galway to Dundalk temperatures generally 12 to 16C with some showers or possibly longer outbreaks of rain coastal parts of Donegal.

Friday will be the final day of proper warmth, again in a similar position to Wednesday and Thursday. In a line from Shannon to Dundalk temperatures could reach 21 to 26C particulalry during spells of sunshine. It should remain mostly dry on Friday but there is an outside chance of a shower or thunderstorm across eastern and southern areas as the cooler air from the NW moves south-east.

North-West of this line will be significantly cooler, generally 11 to 17C as a sharp temperature gradient between the hot air which by this stage is quickly moving east against the much cooler maritime air across the north and west.

Edit: The GFS is rolling out and restricts the warmth on Friday even with midland and north Leinster perhaps into the cooler air.

Up to Saturday looks mostly completely dry across a large part of the country with mainly coastal parts of the north-west getting some measureable rain.

Saturday will see it much cooler across the country as the hot air is swept back into SE England and on into the continent. Showers or thundery rain could affect southern and eastern parts but that remains to be seen. Temperatures generally 12 to 16C across the country so feeling much fresher.

From Sunday and into the following week looks to remain mostly dry away from the north and west with high pressure in control for much of the time. However the winds will be from a western or northwesterly direction around that high, so temperatures won't be that warm but should feel pleseant in the sunshine across the south, east and midlands.

Temperatures may warm up to high teen to low 20s across the country as we enter the second half of next week, but this is a long way off.

After Wednesday pressure could remain fairly high with temperatures possibly getting to the low to mid 20s once again. If these charts verifiy the north-western areas may also see an improvement in temperatures and settled conditions with high pressure dominating the weather.

The GFS 6z keeps things mostly dry and settled until the end of the month where a break in the weather may happen.

It has to be said take everything past this Saturday with a pinch of salt, this mornings GFS is a bit of a warm and settled outlier in the second half of it's run. The 12z could look cooler and more unsettled for next week on the next run.

Turns out both the GEM and CFS are currently also going for a build of high pressure once we get the Spanish plume and cool weekend out of the way.

Next week is still a bit of an open book. Currently it looks like temperatures will be average to warm at times but great uncertainty after Wednesday and into next weekend. Yesterday the models were showing a very cool and unsettled change in the weather from Thursday and into the weekend. This mornings models are showing it staying warm and settled for the most part but this is an outlier so unlikley to verify.

The GFS 6z shows temperatures of 21 to 25C next weekend, yesterday it was showing temperatures of 12 to 16C and plenty of rain. Perhaps by Sunday or Monday we should have a much better idea what is in store throughout next week and into the weekend.

Deep out in FI signs of things settling down and warming up with an attempt from the Azores high.

The high comes under pressure around the 6th of July but stays mainly intact to the end of the run.

The GFS has been doing this over the past couple of runs but these are tending to be warm or settled outliers. Hopefully more models will latch on to this idea because by July 2nd we will need this warm and settled spell after a possibly very unsettled final week of June.

The ECM goes with a fairly different solution to warmth towards the end of it's run, with very warm to hot air dragging up from central Europe and a volatile area of low pressure moving towards Ireland from the Bay of Biscay.

GEM goes for a similar solution as the ECM with warm air dragging across Ireland briefly before a volatile low sets up over us and turns us cooler.

The ECM long range 42 day forecast is throwing up quite a few surprises. Basically it looks cool and unsettled over the coming 7 to 14 days no surprises there, but then around the 2nd week of July things start to warm up and settle down. The big surprise is the final week of July and the first 2 weeks of August the ECM wants to anchor high pressure right over Ireland and the UK which would bring very warm or hot south-easterly winds. MT has hinted in today's forecast that August this year could be fairly warm and settled. Could we be starring into a back loaded summer this year? I certainly hope so but of course the exended range ECM is far beyond the reliable timeframe so a huge pinch of salt for now.

Hopefully by this time next week we will start to see a big improvement in the charts across all the models.

Models continue to show an improvement in our weather from next weekend and into the following week. While this sounds like great news this isn't going to be a prolonged dry spell and the placement of the high to our west will mean that winds will be from a north-westerly direction rather than a south-easterly, so temperatures may not get that high, more like high teens to low twenties due to us being on the cool side of the ridge. July could be another mixed month but hopefully with more influence from high pressure, hopefully not as unsettled as May or June, both of which I have to say have been fairly poor for a large part of Ireland.

As of now it looks we will stay in the current cool and unsettled pattern until at least Friday or Saturday. From Sunday high pressure will ridge in from the south-west with the winds coming around the top of the high across Ireland from a west to slightly north-westerly direction.

As this is the cool side of the ridge expect the onshore westerly winds to keep things relatively cool along western and north-western coasts generally 14 to 18C. Slightly warmer than this across the south and east maybe 17 to 20C with 21 or 22c possible in the far south-east.

As we move into the middle part of next week the high may position itself closer to us, this would allow higher temperatures as we would lose that westerly or north-westerly wind direction.

This would allow temperatures rise into the low to mid twenties across the country away from coastal areas.

As we approach the following weekend, the high may begin to come under pressure from low pressures to our north once again.

Low pressures diving from Greenland/Iceland could well end this settled spell but at the moment we might get a relatively short one week spell of dry and settled weather. The positioning of the high is key to what sort of temperatures we can expect. If the high stays to our west we would end up on the cool side for the most part. If the high positions over us temperatures would definitely then become a bit warmer but it remains to be seen how successful this high sets up close to our positon and how long it can influence our weather.

There is still a good chance that the high will eventually break down with us going back into a similar pattern of weather that we have right now. The washing machine of low pressures may well get another go over us but we shall see.

The ECM and GEM not as warm as the GFS and keeps the unsettled weather going into next weekend and struggles to get the high pressure in over us next week so I think this high pressure solution from next Sunday still has some ways to go before we can be certain of a decent repsite next week.

The ECM 42 extended has been updated again (updates twice per week) and it is contuing it's trend from the last update which is a warm up during July and for the month to be fairly dry overall. End of July and first 2 weeks of August (as far as the modeling goes to) looks signicantly warmer than average and rather dry too. Of course a 42 day extended forecast cannot be relied upon as everything past day 5 is generally unreliable but good to see that 2 updates in a row now look promising for a chunk of this summer to turn out warmer and more settled.

The ECM short range models are starting to pick up on the drying and warming trend beginning from Monday with a switch from the current cool and wet setup to something much more like summer next week.

Above ECM ensemble shows the upper air temperatures will remain below normal until about Sunday or early monday with wet conditions at times. From Monday the upper air temperaures will go from several degrees below normal to several degrees above normal and we become much dryer as we head through the 1st and into the 2nd week of July. Perhaps things may turn more unsettled again by the middle of July but that's along way off.

In general I think next weeks dryer and warmer spell will be 4 to 5 days at most and then we could be back into the autumnal/Greenland lows for another spell during mid July. This battle between unseasonable summer cold and proper summer warmth has been raging since mid May and we've been on the cold side of the battle for the majority of it. If we are to see temperatures going above 25C at any stage this summer it will be either final week of July or sometime in first half of August. Next weeks dryer spell will be warmer than average but I don't see temperatures going much higher than 23C or 24C. A real possibility we'll have to endure another cool and unsettled Atlantic dominated week like this one during mid July.

The GFS operational posted above is not an outlier until the plumey end around 11th of July, that bit is a definite hot outlier.

The ECM 12z very similar to the GFS, builds in the high pressure over us but we can't see any further than 240 hours.

UKMO also on same track but stops at 168 hours. GEM builds the high pressure towards us but is more like yesterday's charts which keeps us in a cooler westerly flow so it's not as warm as the GFS or ECM.

Very good cross model agreement now that things will settle down and warm up from about Monday into Tuesday and on into the rest of next week. This is shaping up to be the first slice of summer this year, let's hope the models stick with this and we get at least 4 to 6 days of warm and sunny weather after a fairly delayed start to the summer.

The main question now is will the high just slide towards us from the west and then retreat back into the mid Atlantic or will it actually sit over us for a few days to bring us properly warm or very warm days.