Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Ross Byrne is good 90% of the time, because 90% of the time he's playing regular season URC games, behind a Leinster pack who always have dominance against those sides. And he's never more than a steady eddy in those games. He does what the coaches want from him and facilitates others without creating a whole lot himself. A test quality 10 playing for Leinster against bottom half URC teams should look absolutely outstanding every week. Like, could you imagine Marcus Smith playing for Leinster against the Welsh and Italian URC teams? He'd look like prime Beauden Barrett.

On Frawley, I'm not saying moving him to 10 is right or wrong. All I'm saying is, Ngatai is coming to play big games. Whether that means Frawley is going to be used more at 10, or is just dropping down the pecking order at 12.

What good will that do though? Starting those games doesn’t give him extra XP that go towards an upgrade. Starting 1 or 2 Test games isn’t what HB needs. He needs a run of games to develop his decision making etc. He’s not going to get that playing a couple of games for Ireland over the course of 15 months.

Also, Carty is ahead of HB in the pecking order, as evidenced in the 6Ns. So HB is 4th choice. Not 3rd choice.

Also, the whole “Sexton will likely get injured in the RWC” doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny. We need him fit for 2 pool games max. That’s it. After that there are a max of 3 knock out games. That’s 5 games absolute maximum that we need him for. He’s regularly managed that over the last number of years in the 6Ns. He’s only missed 1 RWC game from 3 tournaments due to injury IIRC as well.

The, “he might get injured” argument. Worked out very well for Gatland last year.

It would have been much faster to just type "I don't watch much rugby"

And nobody ever "blamed" R.Byrne for any loss. That's a complete strawman.

Back to Ringrose? The least of our problems. I would say that this summer tour I'll be pivotal for Carberry. I don't expect him to be lights out! But, if he is able to control things that would be ideal. I reckon he should get thev1st test! It's getting late in this cycle, so he needs to show something.

HB is obviously well thought off. But, has he earned this tour? I expect he starts both Maori matches. If he goes well and builds confidence, who knows.

I can't see that happening, because that would mean he'd be starting two games in the space of 3/4 days at least once, and I don't think they'd do that.

H.Byrne will start at least one Maori game, possibly both. Carbery will be getting plenty of minutes in the test matches. I can also see Frawley seeing some minutes at 10 v the MABs.

I can see Sexton starting the 1st test no matter what, as that's probably our best shot at a test win. Carbery will start the 2nd. Who starts the 3rd will depend on whether we can win the series or not. If it's 1-1, Sexton will start, if it's 2-0, Carbery will start. That's how I see it playing out anyway.

I see Sexton starting two tests, probably the first and the last. With Carberry starting the second test. That would allow Carberry to start both Māori tests. I really can’t see Frawley getting anytime at 10. Since he has only played one game there in two years. There’s more chance of Lowry being used there.

That maximizes gametime for Carberry and gives us a chance of a series win. Though I have a sneaking suspicion Sexton will start all three tests.

Fair enough I suppose, I was focusing on the 7 days before it.

I don't think it's being contrarian to say we don't know who the 3rd choice is in Farrells head but there is no reason to assume it's Carty given that HB had played something like 2 games coming into 6N selection. He was never an option while Carty was fit and playing regularly. I'm rejecting the oft repeated logic of some posters that because there isn't much between the bench of options after Sexton (and lets say Carbery also because he is clearly #2 in the coaching view) there is no point in wasting caps on them, "what good will that do" acc Molloy, his argument continues that what HB needs is a run of club games, etc. I'd offer that that ship has sailed in terms of Farrells options as a coach. He is bringing HB to NZ so clearly he continues to believe in him as an international OH, so he should give him real game time because beyond NZ we have less than a dozen tests left to figure it out. I shouldn't have to explain any further why a coach who assumes Sexton will be good to go throughout the tournament is taking a risk no coach is likely to. He is prone to injury and there is a real risk that his form just tanks due to his age. The point is that the #3 out half may well play an outsize role in the WC, and right now that's HB so give him games.

I don't think it's quite that simple. When the 6N squad was announced, Carty was in superb form for Connacht and H.Byrne had been injured a lot and not been in great form when he played.

But prior to that, H.Byrne was selected in the November squad and Summer squad ahead of Carty. So I don't think it's that black and white that Carty is no.3. He might be, but it isn't clear.

What TRC said. But I literally outlined the logic in the post you're responding to, HB hadn't played at all and Carty was cooking so the reason he was included is crystal clear, had HB been playing regularly we don't know how it would have played out. I think you said the same thing earlier. There's a habit of reading what you want to read in peoples post here.