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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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    #6092
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206742#Comment_119206742

    Told by who? I've heard numerous Ukrainian officials say the war could easily go on for another six months or a year (or even longer) and they were saying this many weeks ago, not just now. I don't think I heard a single one claim the war would be over soon.

    I'm pretty sure too that Biden said a couple of months back that he thinks the war will last a year or more.



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    #6093
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    They're banned from Wimbledon.

    Which is pretty much a complete outlier and not without controversy. That other tournaments have not followed suit is an absolute nothing story.



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    #6094
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    So long as the political and military leaders of the US/EU/UK keep focus on helping Ukraine and finding ways to hurt Russia more + disconnect us from it, getting Europe ready for what could be a difficult winter energy-wise if Putin decides to cut off the gas, that's the main thing.

    Doesn't matter if people in this very small corner of the internet (or any where else) are still commenting on it all or even paying attention.

    There's been pages and pages of comments on this thread and little else to be said that isn't repetition now is there (?), barring some significant new developments.



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    #6095
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Amnesty International had observers in Ukraine and have published a very detailed report about it. It's just about Kharkiv and it is very detailed and very disturbing 😒

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/research/2022/06/anyone-can-die-at-any-time-kharkiv/

    The report is focusing on usage of banned cluster munitions. The conclusion is that the Russian army and its leadership are grossly violating international law and perpetrate serious abuses.

    Ukrainian Army transgressions are noted for completeness but are nothing comparable in severity or extent to the Russian ones.

    Post edited by McGiver on


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    #6096
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Czech EU presidency started today.

    The motto is Europe as a task: rethink, rebuild, repower.

    https://czech-presidency.consilium.europa.eu/en/programme/priorities/

    Here is the program:

    During its presidency, the Czech Republic will focus on five closely linked priority areas:


    Managing the refugee crisis and Ukraine’s post-war recovery

    Energy security

    Strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities and cyberspace security

    Strategic resilience of the European economy

    Resilience of democratic institutions

    Ukraine, defence and EU energy security. All very relevant in this Ukraine war situation.

    Sweden is taking over in January.



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    #6097
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    So Gazprom (=Russian mafia = Putin's mafia) cut Nord Stream 1 flow by 60%...

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-minister-accuses-russia-finding-excuse-cut-nord-stream-1-gas-2022-06-15/

    Now, the German minister is pissed off and doesn't take the Russian bull about "maintenance".

    "The Russian side's argument is simply a pretext. It is obviously a strategy to unsettle and drive up prices," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said

    Let's watch Germany what they do. It would be a good outcome if this pissed them off so much to finally do something about this strategically stupid energy serfdom.



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    #6098
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Latest ISW report about Russian annexation plans.

    Russian authorities may be accelerating plans to annex occupied areas of Ukraine and are arranging political and administrative contingencies for control of annexed territories. 


    Russian military correspondent Sasha Kots posted an image of a map that was displayed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum depicting a proposed scheme for the “administrative-territorial” division of Ukraine following the war on a three-to-five-year transition scale.[3] The proposed scheme divides Ukrainian oblasts into Russian “territorial districts" and suggests the manner in which Russian authorities hope to incorporate Ukrainian territory directly into Russia. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko additionally outlined a series of indicators that he claimed suggest that Russian authorities are planning to annex occupied Donetsk Oblast as soon as September 1, 2022.[4] Andryushchenko stated that the leadership of occupied Donetsk has entirely passed from authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) to Russian officials and that Russian educational authorities are already referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson as regions of Russia. Andryushchenko additionally stated that the financial and legal systems in occupied Donetsk have already transitioned to Russian systems. Despite the apparent lack of a Kremlin-backed mandate concerning the condition of occupied areas, Russian authorities are likely pushing to expedite a comprehensive annexation process in order to consolidate control over Ukrainian territories and integrate them into Russia’s political and economic environment. However, the Kremlin retains several options in occupied Ukrainian territory and is not bound to any single annexation plan.



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    #6099
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 8,163 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208632#Comment_119208632

    A continuation war or even a guerilla war would make all those plans redundant.



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    #6100
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208632#Comment_119208632

    Here is the link:

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14

    They publish daily reports.



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    #6101
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Brave people indeed, you're at risk of life or exile in Siberia under Russian regime for doing this...

    Russian authorities are continuing to face difficulties implementing their occupation agendas due to pro-Ukrainian pressure in occupied areas. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that unidentified Ukrainian partisans targeted employees of the Russian Emergency Ministry in Mariupol on June 9 and 11.

    The Ukrainian Resistance Center additionally claimed that Russian occupation authorities are unable to open schools in occupied Berdyansk due to resistance from Ukrainian teachers, who are refusing to teach under Russian curricula. 

    Such pro-Ukrainian action will likely continue to disrupt Russian efforts to consolidate full-scale administrative control of occupied areas and Russian annexation agendas. 



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    #6102
    ilkhanid
    Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194401#Comment_119194401

    Bizarre. It wasn't that long ago that Chinese and Indian forces were fighting each other along a disputed border. Countries that have reason to fear Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea (Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philipines,Indonesia, Japan, South Korea) won't be joining any alliance. China has border disputes with other countries too. All this seem to have gone over Chomsky's head.



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    #6103
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206246#Comment_119206246

    He has a point, sanctions are already cracking.


    Shur nearly every thing Russia sells is essential, they don't sell much but what they do tends to be highly sought primary resources...


    It's why the continental approach, bar the East, is so hard to understand.


    Killing a many Russian soldiers as possible is vital.



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    #6104
    SomewhereInTheMiddle
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭SomewhereInTheMiddle


    Noam Chomsky: "WAR in Ukraine is "AN INSANE EXPERIMENT" by the USA! (05/2022)"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCVN7iV5kVo




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    #6105
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208582#Comment_119208582

    OK so Gazprom not only cut German gas by 60% but also cut gas deliveries to Italy by 15%.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-gas-flows-europe-fall-further-amid-diplomatic-tussle-2022-06-16/

    Russian mafia clearly manipulating the gas prices. Gas price on the EU exchange has increased by 30%.

    Russian mafia justification from the mouth of Mr Peskov (the chief archliar):

    Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said reductions in supply were not premeditated and related to maintenance issues, a reference to earlier comments saying Russia was unable to secure the return of equipment sent to Canada for repairs

    Here's a complete statement of the German minister, he knows they're lying...

    "The current reports clearly show that the Russian side's justification is simply a pretext. It is obviously a strategy to unsettle and drive up prices," he said, adding that Berlin and Brussels have established that "the maintenance of these facilities is not under sanctions. I have also personally confirmed this to Siemens. We are in discussion with the Canadians about the extent to which, according to Canadian legal standards, the sanctions allow that.”



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    #6106
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    So Mr Lavrov did an interview with the BBC. And he lies. Pathological liars, it's ridiculous and bizarre at the same time...

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61833458

    "We didn't invade Ukraine,"


    "We declared a special military operation because we had absolutely no other way of explaining to the West that dragging Ukraine into Nato was a criminal act."

    Conspiracy theories, lies, one after another. And the arrogance. One feels really ill listening to this. 🤮

    But at least he shows he has absolutely no regard for human life, like the whole Russian kleptokratic mafia.



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    #6107
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,902 ✭✭✭✭josip


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119213836#Comment_119213836

    As regards the gas flow I have 2 thoughts on this.

    Firstly, I don't think Russia are turning down the gas supply to increase price, although it probably is a welcome side affect. I think they are trying to prevent the EU countries from fully replenishing their storage before the winter. Russia will be hoping that if Germany has a gas supply crunch in November/December that they will put a lot of pressure on Ukraine to agree a peace deal where they surrender the Donbas and the coast as far as Kherson.

    Secondly, as long as Russia are supplying the minimum amount of gas they are contractually obliged to, then there is nothing to stop them from adjusting the flow rate as and when it suits them. Even if they do breach their contracts, then some blame must be taken by Germany, Italy and friends for becoming so dependent on a single supplier for a key resource.



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    #6108
    amandstu
    Registered Users Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭amandstu


    I wonder what Ukraine's realistic strategic options are?

    They seem dependent on military aid for survival against a vicious enemy(obviously)


    Is time in their side if their foreign supporters show fortitude?


    Assuming time is on their side but that Russia does not collapse politically or militarily, do they still have to trim their (righteous ) expectations and where might those (unthinkable) lines be drawn?



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    #6109
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If the Ukraine start to reverse the Russian gains in the Donbas, and the Black Sea coast, at what point will Russia attempt to use the threat (and actual use) of nuclear or other unthinkable weapons?

    Will NATO then rethink its non-intervention? If so, is that it - WW III?



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    #6110
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,327 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Looks like it's official: the EU Commission recommended that Ukraine - and Moldova - be given Candidate status for EU membership.

    Now, in essence that doesn't mean anything right now, ask Albania how their Candidate Status is going, having become an official candidate back in 2014 (with talks only beginning in 2020). Still, as poltiical symbols go, it's quite potent.



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    #6111
    bobowen
    Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214709#Comment_119214709

    Are you reading news reports from the start of May when the media were still pretending that Ukraine was about to defeat Russia perhaps?

    It's mid June now. Everyone else has moved onto what will happen after Ukraine retreats from the Donbass. Including the western media.



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    #6112
    patnor1011
    Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214709#Comment_119214709

    Ukraine to reverse russian gas - is that a joke?

    And where do you think they get gas from?



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    #6113
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,902 ✭✭✭✭josip


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119215299#Comment_119215299

    "Russian gains".

    That's gas.

    :)



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    #6114
    amandstu
    Registered Users Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭amandstu


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119214709#Comment_119214709

    Well,the frontline is not fixed in stone as the battles carry on .So Ukraine is presumably gaining and losing various territories on an ongoing basis.


    If the front line can be pushed back to its 2022 state then Russia might be forced to accept that.

    But this is such a murky ,if alarming question that I have no real answer

    Ukraine has the right to self defense and the prospect of Russia rolling over other neighbouring states after it digests Ukraine is more than unpalatable to Western Europe and its allies in Nato



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    #6115
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Truly amazing how much shite can come out of one persons mouth, in Von Der Leyen.

    She reckons the Ukrainians have shown they're willing to die for the European perspective. Or maybe they're just willing to die for their country once it gets invaded.

    Ms von der Leyen said Ukraine had "already implemented roughly 70 % of rules, norms and standards.

    Georgia wasn't given the same status though? A third former Soviet republic, Georgia, was asked to meet certain conditions before being granted the same status.

    Ursula just wants her greasy mitts on Ukraine's natural resources.

    Anyways, Ukraine can never be an EU member unless it agrees borders with Putin. That's why Serbia and Montenegro haven't been accepted as members yet, their borders are contested.



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    #6116
    patnor1011
    Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119215561#Comment_119215561

    Lol you are right. Complete gas, should have gone to specsavers.



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    #6117
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 29,464 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216395#Comment_119216395

    I thought this was some new angle of attack from Russian propaganda!

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #6118
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119215858#Comment_119215858

    Von der Layen - Amazing how much Scheisse can come out of @Pussyhands.

    Georgia isn't in Europe. Borderline case depending on definition, in one of the most ethnically tense and dense regions near Europe.



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    #6119
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119215229#Comment_119215229

    The Commission supported it all along because unlike the elected Council they don't have to be cowards with no balls afraid of losing the election and can think long term.

    Very glad that Macron, Scholz, Draghi tow the line because there was no alternative, not accepting candidate status would be a huge strategic mistake that could even lose the war (lost Ukrainian morale, enhanced Russian morale).

    Excellent news, historical moment 🇺🇦🇪🇺

    Post edited by McGiver on


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    #6120
    Field east
    Registered Users Posts: 2,582 ✭✭✭Field east


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119215269#Comment_119215269

    The western media do not have to withdraw. They will be thrown out , jailed , sent home in a box if they fall out a window, etc, etc.



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    #6121
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,327 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119216981#Comment_119216981

    Its important but for now it's purely symbolic - which of course has power in of itself for morale as you point out.

    But the reality as I see it is once Ukraine survives, maybe even retaking lost territory, the rebuild alone will shutter EU membership for decades. God knows there's enough pushback when subsidising the poorer nations - imagine a postwar country! Said rebuild will no doubt come from European contracts, but I can't believe Ukraine becomes part of the EU in my lifetime. And god knows what Russia will do in that equation.



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