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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,336 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I would disagree. I can foresee a massive level of external investment into Ukraine, with a goal to secure their resources for a Western market. Quite likely to be a competition between Chinese and Western countries for those rights.

    It would satisfy as a symbolic rebuke against Russia, and serve to create a powerful buffer against them, in addition to helping ensure food security for Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The Russian fascist regime will be paying for the rebuilding of Ukraine, not the EU. All of the damage and destruction wasn't accidental - it was deliberately carried out by criminals and the debt will be hanging over them until it is fully repaid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    Actually the narrative was that Russia would roll over Donbass - yet 4 weeks later and despite pouring all their reserves into it, Russia still hasn't even captured Sievierodonetsk.

    Meanwhile, Ukraine has been getting closer and closer to Kherson.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    After WW II, Germany was flattened, and people were destitute and starving. The country was divided into four regions and occupied by four foreign armies, who although allies to defeat the Nazis, were not actually that much in favour of each other in peacetime - USSR vs the rest.

    Then what happened next? Germany was divided into two separate states, one controlled by the USSR. That one was a prison with high wires and guards with machine guns keeping the locals in, and shooting those trying to leave.

    What happened next? A cold war and arms race followed that bankrupted the USSR and led to the collapse of the USSR.

    What happened next? Germany was united again within the EU and prospered.

    Germany is currently one of the most successful economies in the world.

    What happens next? We will see.

    Now Ukraine wants to follow this line.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭jackboy


    That’s a fair long shot. It can’t happen unless NATO marches on Moscow and occupies all of Russia. The EU will give it some support as a candidate country but a lot of Ukraine will just be left in ruins to sort out themselves.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    "guards with machine guns keeping the locals in, and shooting those trying to leave."

    Just like the "good" Nazi's of the Azov Battalion in Mariupol then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    The Czech EU presidency put post-war recovery as a point 1 on the program...I'm sure that is a majority (but not unanimous) view in the Commission and the Council.

    Another important task of the Czech Presidency will be the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, focusing on restoring critical infrastructure, ensuring basic services, strengthening resilience and economic recovery and stability in Ukraine. Strong EU cooperation with Ukraine and securing the necessary financial resources across the free world will be crucial.

    Priorities (europa.eu)

    Yes, it will take 10+ years for Ukraine to become a member (provided Russia is neutralised).



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Exactly my thinking. If Russia is neutralised and Ukraine Eastern flank heavily defended, I can see a serious investment boom in Ukraine, and this will be aided by Ukraine's work on EU acquis "chapters" and convergence with the EU law.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Noam Chomsky remains a grade AA piece of shi7.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,464 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    What that Russian propaganda cue has to do with the previous post is anyones guess.

    How about your good Nazis in the Wagner Group?

    How about denazifying yourself first?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    A good report on potential approach to post-war reparations:

    CF (ceasefire.org)

    Freezing assets (Russian mafia federation and also oligarchs') is listed and obviously most palatable given the high likehood of RF not cooperating.

    Anders Aslund suggest this should be a priority, and I agree too.

    https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1537832931728797696?s=20&t=Gl5zOecpNPkvXQaCwl3-fQ



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    To make Germany prosper it took the greatest default in history, only superceding Germany's default after WW1.


    On top of that it took an incredibly favourable trade terms and a massive transfer of wealth, an unprecedented transfer.


    No one will be able to match the amount spent to Germany motoring again in the 50s.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,327 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Disagree with which bit? One presumes the hardware and intelligence that has been coming Ukraine's way has significant IOUs attached. Eventually Ukraine will need to remember who supplied those toys.

    The irony in Russia's invasion is that the outcome will be to entwine Ukraine further into the EU, manifest in reconstruction work or funding. But when it comes to greenlighting the actual membership to the EU? My prediction will be a very long game, with a constant kicking of the can by Brussels (assuming Poland and Hungary can be persuaded to say Yes in the first place). This is an exceptional circumstance, but as I said Albania only got to start negotiations 11 years after first applying (haven't dug into the rest of the active candidates mind you).

    Ukraine as an EU member would also be a n interesting, somewhat seismic shift in the power balance of the EU.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think that whatever it took, it took it and Germany prospered. The same logic that got Germany to where it is now could get Ukraine to follow the same path, assuming the logic applied to them.

    Who pays? Where does the wealth come from?

    Ukraine's natural resources. And Russia perhaps - they have gas and oil to spare, and the stolen Russian state wealth that litters all the tax havens around the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    The poster was implying that post war Ukraine could be as successful as post WW2 Germany was after they had stopped being Nazi's.

    I was implying that the opposite was true because the Ukraine are still glorifying their Nazi's who behaved in Mariupol in a way that the poster had accused the Russians of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,464 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Germany was run by Nazis. It was a Nazi regime.

    Ukraine is a democracy fighting to defend its freedoms against a fascist invader Russia. It will prosper once it frees itself from Russian subjugation. This is what Russia fears most.

    And the USSR signed treaties with this Nazi regime to invade its neighbours.

    Something its sick successor state Russia denies. It is one of its sicknesses and the opposite of what is needed in a free country. It glorifies those who were complicit with the Nazi regime and denies its enablement of it.

    So denazify yourself.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I never suggested the Ukraine regime was ever a Nazi regime.

    They may have been in the past, but were/are currently following a democratic path, only prevented from doing so by a war perpetrated by a Nazi/nasty regime next door intent on subjugating and obliterating their nation.

    Their best policy in surviving as a nation is to look west and hope the EU and NATO can assist them enough to survive as a nation, and hopefully rebuild and prosper.



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    See this is what is wrong with the discourse on this war. Everything that is actually attributable to the Ukrainian side is just flipped on its head and attributed to the Russians.

    The Ukrainians have an openly Nazi battalion with Nazi emblems, youth camps and members who film themselves executing captured Russian Soldiers and dipping their bullets in pigs blood so that the Muslim chechen fighters they kill don't go to heaven. All in plain sight of the world.

    Yet you flip it and bizarrely call the Russians Nazis despite the fact that they fight alongside Muslim soldiers and lost 20 million of their population in WW2 to people with the same Nazi belief system as those currently in positions of power within the Ukrainian Armed forces.

    Its very strange logic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,464 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Oh look it is more Russian propaganda lies from a proven liar and the same source who runs away every time Wagner Group is mentioned.

    Russia lies about denazification while deploying Wagner Group Nazis as mercenaries to commit war crimes.

    Russia commits war crimes like Bucha

    Ukrane is led by a Jew. Russia bombs Holocaust memorials and kills Ukranian civilians who survived the Holocaust.

    Remind us again of us your lies about who violated the Budapest agreement.

    Denazify yourself. If you want to denazify anywhere Russia has enough.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But the Russians seem to think they can go into a neighbouring country without warning or provocation, deliberately inflict a trillion Euros worth of damage on that country and there be absolutely no consequences for doing it. That's not the way international law or the international order works - their actions are illegal and criminal and totally pursuable by legal means.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Why not? There's many legal ways... See my post with the report on future Ukrainian war reparations.

    Freezing assets is the most obvious way in current situation. But there many ways to finance the recovery.

    Ukraine absolutely won't be left to "sort out themselves". They've made many friends, very good diplomacy if you ask me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Marshall's Plan was a big part of Germany post-war recovery.

    Germany after WW2 was completely flattened and on its knees. That's not the situation we might expect in Ukraine unless Russia starts using nuclear weapons.

    We're not comparing apples to apples here.

    Some sort of a mini Marshall's Plan will be needed though and both the US and the EU will contribute. There will also be significant war reparations paid by Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Can’t see it. I’d say the EU and the US will help in a small way but most of the demolished cities will just be left as they are. We may help by permanently keeping their refugees. Yes, we may be able to squeeze some money from Russia using legal ways but that will be very small and take a long time. This is all moot unless the west helps Ukraine win the war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Stalin still is a national hero in Russia BTW. Absolutely shocking.

    That guy was a mass murderer responsible for dozens of millions of dead people and probably the most vile evil psychopathic dictator the world has ever seen (by stats - people enslaved or murdered)....



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    They lost 20 million people because most of them were shot by the monstrous Bolsheviks, let to wait starve, exiled to Siberia to die in, were let to be captured by the Nazis or were let die in battles due to inhumane/stupid/drunken/wicked "strategy" of the Red Army generals and/or lack of proper training, equipment or supplies.

    This is the reality. Not the Russian lies about their "Great Patriotic War".

    Stop talking, because you talk like Russian propaganda bot and you're exposed.

    You can't mislead people who know the truth (the real history) with lies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Lenin and Trotsky are lauded by many here and in Russia.


    Putin isn't even a tenth as bad or murderous as either one in Ukraine and especially in Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Let's say the US accidentally shot down a Russian passenger airliner in 2021 with a missile killing all on board. They would 100% be liable to pay damages to Russia on foot of their negligence.

    The idea that Russia can invade Ukraine and 'deliberately' inflict around one trillion dollars worth of damage to the country and its infrastructure and escape any consequences is far fetched. It would be like me as your neighbour going into your house with a baseball bat while you're out, smashing everything to pieces and then somehow thinking there won't be any legal fallout for me afterwards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    As some one said, fascism is just Communism for those who don't like Killing so much.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭jackboy


    That’s valid only if you truly believe the EU and the US rule the world and decide on things like that. Could Russia even afford to pay trillions to rebuild Ukraine, I think not, it’s not going to happen. Lots of countries in the world are given free reign to bomb out cities without talk of reparations.



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