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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    Up to 40 of them, and maybe a few more according to the report.

    I don't doubt it with them and a fair few in Europe variously pretending to be natives of whatever country their in, getting a toehold in areas of interest and or ever so innocently promoting the motherland and Putin on social media and elsewhere. A watchful eye on social media by Europol etc could yield a lot of interesting results imo



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 155 ✭✭I Blame Sheeple


    GCHQ/NCA will have pulled out after Brexit, leaving us in a very bad spot but there will be no wholly-Irish agency stepping in to fill the gap. We simply don't have the resources or personnel available.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Disagree that we don't have the personnel available. New Zealand (a country with the same population as us and a smaller economy) have a modestly sized intelligence agency of about 300 people. If we had 50 people between AGS and the military working on these matters at the moment I'd be surprised.

    Bring the current expertise over to the dedicated new agency on secondment to manage it at a senior level and start hiring linguists, cyber-defence talent etc.



  • Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Dublin is like an even lighter-touch Vienna with the added benefits of the CTA with Britain and lovely Irish passports.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,178 ✭✭✭thomil


    I'd say the bigger problem is that there's still no awareness amongst political circles about the volatility of the current world situation and the precariousness of Ireland's position. To say nothing of the ignorance and intransigence of the general population. I'd say that, combined with a dysfunctional political system that rewards short-term vote getting over long-term plans, is the main block to ANY major changes in Ireland's security policy.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Agreed. An intelligence agency that is dedicated to detecting live threats and pre-empts and briefs on medium and long term economic and political security would go a long way to resolving our current stupor on this front. There's also the problem that we're a dedicated member of the EU but we don't pull our weight.

    Some of this work is likely being done across various departments and in AGS and the military, but I'd imagine it's horribly under-resourced, disjointed, and not taken seriously at the heart of government.

    On a practical front, how were the Dutch able to root this guy out immediately (he was stopped at Schipol and Dutch intelligence knew he wasn't legit), but he was swanning around Dublin for 4 years undetected and was furnished with a visa on a (again I'm presuming here) counterfeit Brazilian passport?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2 Skinupladdy


    Putin hasn't long left so it makes no difference to him if it escalates,to nuke warfare, everyone is watching Russia,China is also trying to take land but force tiawain so it t can control the waters around their coastline, Yemen the dirty war that has been going on for near if not more 20years again American armed,same as talabian they are better equipped than Russia and Ukraine soilders,or meceranairy lads the assif battery,WORLD ABOUT US=BAD WAY



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Who would ever hurt Hobbiton/PixieLand, shur aren't we harmless & insignificant over here! I think that might sum up alot of the public attitude to such matters. Probably think its kind of funny or all a bit of a laff that a Russian spook studied in TCD for years building up his back-story. Possibly a bit cynical...but 🤷‍♀️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    30 or 40 years ago they may have had a point. As our economy has grown, we have become far more central to European affairs (without overstating things too much) and particularly the fact we have globally critical industries doing significant operations here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes, the mind set hasn't caught up with the both fact that we are 1) not quite so insignificiant any more as we were during the Cold war (70s/80s) and 2) entering a new reality of a deteriorating security/international situation, which Ireland will not be immune from (we are part of the EU and the wider West irrespective of neutrality & not having a military to speak of). Will probably take some sort of shock event/crisis closer to home than Ukraine (or at home...) for it to sink in. I really hope not though.😕



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭ZeroThreat



    Nothing short of a violent invasion and long brutal occupation would move the ostriches in this country from their ultra-complacent mindset.

    I



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,544 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,178 ✭✭✭thomil


    Just regarding your point about the Dutch making a move on him so quickly, it stands to reason that they, and possibly other intelligence agencies, have been following him for a while. From what I've been able to gather, at least from books and other third-hand accounts since I'm not involved in the intelligence community myself, the general principle seems to be to just keep an eye on foreign intelligence agents unless they're about to either uncover something important, penetrate a particularly sensitive area, say, the inner circle of a head of government, or because you need someone for an exchange with whoever is on the other side.

    This way, you're able to find out more about their networks, any informants they might be cultivating, their own contacts and handlers, and so on. Remember, an agent may operate alone, but they're always going to be part of a network. Also, every time you apprehend a foreign agent, you run the risk of accidentally disclosing your source, whether that's because you've been tracking their handler, one of their sources, or have gotten it from other sources, such as cracked codes or similar. My personal suspicion is that the guy was simply not considered a risk whilst he was mooching around in college but only became a concern when it became clear that he would want to get into the ICC. Once that happened, it was decided that taking him down presented less risks then letting him set up inside the ICC and possibly start cultivating sources in there, so they moved in. Having witnessed myself how the Dutch Police take down suspects they've been looking for at Schiphol, I'm pretty sure it was a VERY rude awakening for the guy.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    That I suppose makes sense.

    I have seen articles which suggests what limited counter-intelligence resources we have that is directed towards hostile intellegence agencies is very 'hands-off', as in observing from afar and doing very little to no disruption.

    Although I'd emphasise that an article about our friend in Trinity in the Irish press said that our services did not know this gent was Russian intelligence, and the first they got wind of his status was when the Dutch moved on him.

    Which doesn't fill me with confidence. It would rather suggest that Ireland is regarded as a safe space and playground for hostile intellegence to be warehoused and do their activity in the UK and the continent unmolested.

    We can grasp this nettle ourselves, or we can outsource it to the British / French / Germans / Dutch to operate on our territory. I'd much rather we did the former.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,739 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    id Say it will take a dressing down from Brussels or some sort of major incident before any serious change in posture on Irish intelligence.

    I often think of the interaction between the American ambassador ( I think ) and DeValera during world war 2 where the ambassador asked de Valera what he would do if the Germans arrived at our shores and De Valera answered “ I don’t know” . We have not moved on much since then IMO, and I can see that De Valera mindset reflected in many of the older generation today. They just can’t perceive the threat from such a distant foreign country and often are not interested in discussing it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Given that Russia sought to do that creepy embassy expansion, it's safe to say that their espionage operation has been underway here for a pretty long time, or at least since Putin's speech at the 2007 Berlin conference where he made it clear of his upset at NATO expansion. In that sense, I don't think Ireland has been immune from soft Russian aggression. It's a well-known fact that Ireland is militarily neutral, but far from politically neutral. Even if Dev expressed a condolence over Hitler in 1945, when push came to shove, Ireland as a state has sided with Western powers since its foundation.

    As far as anything more concrete, like a direct military attack, it's safe to say that if Russia ever decided to start lobbing missiles at Ireland, we'd be in a situation of direct hostilities between the West and Russia, and the whys, whats and wherefores would be of little concern vs. digging the hole in the garden and roaring about who had the iodine tablets last.

    "I PUT THEM IN THAT DRAWER BACK IN 2002, AND UNLESS SOMEONE MOVED THEM, THEY SHOULD STILL FECKIN' BE THERE!!!"



  • Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yeah I'm way beyond giving Irish authorities of any kind of benefit of the doubt that they're secretly amazingly competent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Quite (!), however there's a fair few possible steps on a ladder of aggressive and hostile acts we could suffer from between being "just" a kind of spy nest where the final target(s) are perhaps not Irish or even based in Ireland, and suffering any sort of direct military attack. This space between is the kind of "shock" event I was thinking of.

    Some of those steps may be very unpleasant and damaging for Ireland in their own right, so hopefully such threats will be taken more seriously (by govt. of course, but it was mostly the mindset of a big part of the Irish public as regards issues of security & defence I was criticising in my posts - a kind of belief we are exempt from or even above worrying about it).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    The Irish ambassador during World war 2 was a headbanger that got the job as he was related to Roosevelt. He wanted Ireland pulled into the war ASAP, it was the Irish American political block that countered his ravings to Roosevelt. His own lot wanted him gone after a while, he was holding **** seances for intelligence gathering.


    More importantly, what business would Brussels have giving a National government a dressing down? Last I checked we don't report to Brussels



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Depressing coming back here. Nevertheless, any thoughts on :

    and

    It seems we're escalating the conflict against Russia. Damascus airport was bombed by Israel with the US saying it helped. Russia may have to send forces to Syria. Lithuania opens the prospect of a NATO conflict.

    https://youtu.be/hjWkfCSF52g

    From the. BBC lavrov interview, Russia are not backing down. They outline their complaints. If you want details, look at the escalation logged by OSCE prior to the Russian invasion.

    I wonder what's next, nuclear war?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    The US are led by a war mongering arms industry more powerful than any government on the planet. I find it mad when people are up in arms about Russia, and supportive of the states. Both destabalise the world for their own gain and we shouldn't take either side, they're both horrible.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Long may Pax-Americana reign. It's the reason you grew up in a liberal free Europe out from under the jackboot of both fascism and Stalinism.

    They're not asking for a thank you card by the way, but it's the fact of the matter. And it's the only thing standing between a Europe being swamped by another fascist creep, this time in Moscow.

    Think about that the next time you curse the "military industrial complex" you read about in a dog-eared copy of some Chomsky pop-politcal theory book.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,939 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I don't particularly take a side between america and Russia -

    But I definitely take a side when Russia invaded Ukraine again - remember Ukraine were neutral when Russia invaded the first time ( well the first time this century ... )

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    I find it irritating that our media is parroting the NATO talking points without any push back. The BBC lavrov interview is quite good, Lavrov looks a bit stupid talking about Nazi's but makes salient points around the Minsk agreement.

    IMHO, we need to challenge NATO and Ukraine the same way.

    Look at the OSCE ceasefire violation before the war.

    The OSCE is there at the request of the Ukranian government to monitor ceasefire violations. Zelensky should be asked about this. He outlawed russian and arrested the opposition leader. He should be questioned about that too.

    As it stands, the pro Russian press use logic to justify the invasion whereas the pro Ukrainian press is awful relying on Putin being mentally unstable and Ukranian war victories many of which seem unverified. It is a mess telling us Russia is close to economic collapse while it's currency soars despite our sanctions which seem to backfire. It seems anti logic and while it may be on the right side, it needs to give real professional analysis.

    IMHO, the West should be pushing both Russia AND Ukraine to de-escalate and we should probably tell the USA to **** off as they only seem to make things worse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    It's understandable that the public is not going to be generally worried about a potential event somewhere in between soft-touch espionage and hard ordinance. Not because nothing can happen but because life would be un-livable to think too much that way.

    The big one I can think of as far as "Intermediate" threats go is cyber-attack. At least some of this threat can be mitigated by continuing to educate the public to "think about that link" and enforcing good safety practices in government departments. There haven't been any massive cyber attacks in the West, that I know of, since this invasion began. I would say it's something the USA is keeping a real close eye on and is disseminating advice to allies and partners on how to protect themselves.



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So much wrong with this post. Economics not an expertise of yours then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    This is unvarnished Kremlinite wheeze.

    The thread has been going a long time, more sophisticated peddlers of this stuff and merchants of doubt were sent packing with their tails between their legs.

    Don't be among them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Ruble at five year high against Euro.

    80% of world not sanctioning Russia, e.g. Briics.

    I mean your post is pathetic, like those people that respond to any sceptical questions about the war to say the questioner is Putin's puppet.

    Imagine if science was like that. There would be no special theory of relativity. No nothing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The rouble is a dead currency. It is not tradable internationally and no one wants it.

    Want to know how strong the rouble really is? Check out the parallel black market exchange rates in Russian cities (toilet paper) - it's a fully managed currency like the North Korean won, a potemkin currency.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Pax americana? Tell that to the Vietnamese, Koreans (evidence emerged of biological weapon use by USA recently), Libya, Iraq, Nicaragua, etc.).

    The Russian's are literally the reason Hitler was stopped.

    Jackboot? I think you've been reading too much Tom Clancy.



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