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Inflation

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Weetabix is very expensive In lidl, could be nearly 5 euros while u can get deals in supervalue for them. We do all out shopping in lidl and aldi but some things aren't as nice. Oven chips we buy in lidl as an example we might not finish them and reheat them the next day, they tend to be dry and basically not nice. But when we buy mccains there a nicer chip, but when u reheat them their alot better. I like my chips..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10 Pipermania


    Who would have thought that if all countries in the world turned away from Russia, then everyone would have a crisis? I definitely didn't expect this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭TheTruth89


    You ll be paying for it one way or another either with your health or your money i know which id pick.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Not pedantic at all. Just incorrect snapshot.

    We also will experience deflation, after the inflation barrels through.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It is a very pertinent counterveiling example that things are not as simple as you suggested. Interest rates (crudely new money creation) are but one variable and but one lever in the inflation / deflation cycle.

    It's not a settled science. If interest rates and tighteing monetary policy is a sure-fire way to kill inflation, we have nothing to worry about, the magic men in the Fed will raise the rates by x basis points, we can rest easily and this thread wouldn't be full of speculation. And similarly Japan (and other central banks that have wrestled with this) would have conquered their deflation and extremely low inflation phenomenon, yet it was not so. This occured in a Japanese economy with stable low employment figures.

    Post edited by Yurt2 on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 956 ✭✭✭Get Real


    I get that perhaps with more processed goods. Brand names might have less salt, sugar and fat per 100g. But plenty of goods that are way cheaper and essentially the same.

    500g Wholewheat pasta 99c VS 2.69 for Roma brand.

    1kg Irish oats 99c VS 2.99 for Flahavans

    2l milk 1.89 VS 2.19 Avonmore

    400g Chopped Tomatoes 55c VS 1.25 Roma

    400g Chocolate Digestives 39c VS 2.99 Mcvities (same calories, fat, sugar content)

    In none of those cheaper products, are there any huge nutritional variations.

    As the Irish Market is relatively small, the examples like milk and oats, all the various brands are coming from the same suppliers. A kilo of oats with the exact same nutritional value as a branded kilo of oats, a third of the price. Benefits your wallet and health.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    If I want a Donnybrook, I go to the National Stadium or indeed a cemetery Sunday in the Midlands where the masters of faction fighting bring their A game. I find the Special Offers in Aldi provide the occasional ding dong and a Donnybrook or two should some riffraff get distracted from their bargain-price nosh and attempt to swipe my riding and skiing whatnots.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Similarly, the eurozone experienced near zero inflation for more than a decade, and this with an ECB policy of rock bottom interest rates and the printers whirring, even when energy prices were bouncing around - deep into the recovery from the GFC and beyond.

    Theoretically, on the single variable "new money sets the score on inflation and that's it" we shouldn't have seen a chart like below. But we did. It's easy to forget this stuff now that we're grappling with significant inflation for the first time in a generation. Depending on your age, many Irish workers will never have seen this before.

    Much like how in the recession, the average Irish taxi driver could actually give a decent stab at what credit default swops and mortgage backed securities were, we're all going to get an education in what exactly is making this inflation cycle tick.

    It's clear that a lot of people are settling around the orthodoxy that tightening monetary policy will magic this away. If so, we need not worry, the process is in-train. I have my doubts, but of course, we'll see. Let's hope the magic men in the Fed and ECB don't kill the economy in the process.

    Untitled Image




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    I find that assiduous use of Dunnes vouchers and bulk buying works for me. é.g. I'm working my way through coffee now that I bought maybe 6-9 months ago. Built up a reserve of 40+ jars, @4.50 instead of 7.50, before the recent inflation hikes.

    That's my strategy. Shop in one, bulk buy goods with shelf life and skip them on the weeks they're dear. Then shop your pantry, as the Americans say (the clever ones, not the dumbass ones). Just like being your own banker.

    A lot of the moaning and wailing about inflation is self inflicted. No one has a buffer, of food, or energy, or money (fiat currency or the real stuff). Don't say you can't afford it as that's silly. And insulting to people who made it through the 80s, and the 50s before then.

    How can anyone afford petrol/diesel when they're up to their oxters in 'look at me lads' lease payments? My car is coming on 16 years old, it's a highly serviced weapon /workhorse. I love cars, but I prefer my peace of mind. I'll pick one up cheap inside.12-24 months. If I so choose.

    As Robert Kiyosaki preaches "pay yourself first". Simple as. Save something. My folks lost everything in the 80s calamity and were left to sink by State agencies and do-gooder charities like SVDP. As they didn't tick the poor mouth box. But they saved something, always. In horrendous times. I've often saved money for 6 months, in the past only to ebb it away into day to day when life demanded. And then make it THE priority again. But that's simply not common currency anymore. I've seen plenty of poor people save and well off people squander. It's down to your daily decisions.

    I agree with the poster above about shopping around. IF time is not a higher currency for you. If money is tight, shop around. If time is precious, work out another smart shopping strategy.

    But people have to stop looking to government for help. That's not going to be your solution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The above is good advice for the individual (sincerely) particularly the advice around saving and being assiduous in your day to day financial life in order to ride this out. We'll see a lot of people adopting this lifstyle, as they must.

    However, in aggregate, across the economy it spells disaster for demand - and that means a depressed economy and layoffs aplenty, probably kicking in across a lot of sectors towards the end of the year.

    I don't really have an answer for the macro picture. All I know is I've noticeably been a lot more parsimonious with discretionary spending over the last few weeks, and I do ok and actually usually have a (limited) bandwith to spend without thinking too much. This psychological effect repeated across the entire country (and continent) means pain for us all.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    100%. I have 100+ of such 99c Dunnes Wholemeal pasta/spaghettis stored. A steal for what they are and easy to whip up a solid nutritious meal with a few other bits added. Certainly a comfort buffer when the wheels are coming off the wagon.

    When people tíre of parading on O'Connell St like tools (they voted for Europe and the Euro and in so doing divested our government of monetary tools, so wake up), hopefully they'll examine their spending habits and cut their cloth to suit where we find ourselves. Discretionary spending (on brands) and discretionary spending on fuel to being kids to their 3rd or 4th sports activity that week is not within the gift of Pascal O'Donoghue to subvent. It's time to grow up kids. The real world of sweat and effort and deferred gratification is calling. The magic money tree is not well.

    It's not easy where kids are involved. Even people below 40.dont understand inflation effects. It hasn't remotely hit yet. But it behoves households to take their affairs in hand and regain some control over their lives. Or get steamrolled as nó government can support a nation on its own. The ECB have experimented with that parlour trick during the pandemic and we'll see how it all works out.


    To the other poster, you don't need to buy gold, or silver, or crypto. Buy stuff you need and will need and can store. In other words, liquidate your euros as soon as you get them. That's your primary defence against inflation. At the height of the German hyperinflation, the poor souls were paid twice daily. The other half would come and collect the money and it would be spent in full immediately. Do similar to offset inflation in your life. It is far higher than the vacuous CPI measure being trotted out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Might I also add that I take due note of your posts, on this subject and elsewhere. Your thoughts and posts are measured and proof of thinking. Which isn't that common anymore.


    Agreed, on the macro level, I think we're stuffed. I don't know how we get out of this one, Keynesians or Austrians! It's truly GUBU !!



  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SuperValu still doing €8 off €40 shops. If you’re good at maths on your way round you can get 20% off your entire grocery bill



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    When the rats are worrying about the quality of the meat, it's time to get off the sinking ship!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I've spoken a lot about the Japanese economy in this thread. Taken from the late 70s onwards, it's a fantastic case study in the highs and lows an economy can go through, and most pertinantly for this thread, a window for understanding the relationship between interest rates and inflation/deflation and the limits of that lever to actually get an economy into equilibrium.

    If anyone has 35 mins or so, this video is a good primer and something can be extropolated from the Japanese economy.

    I've been prattling on about the counterintuitive situation Japan found itself in where they were desperately seeking modest inflation and had a monetary policy to match to achieve it. In the 2000s (this part of the video expands on what I'm speaking to), despite low private sector debt and low unemployment, they literally couldn't buy inflation. The problem? Mass psychology and mass consumer behaviour centred around inflation expectations.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 888 ✭✭✭bb12


    indeed. i work in a manufacturing facility where we sell a premium product, but we also do different generics. the only difference between the 2 is we stop the lines and change the labels.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    The situation is different from the 70s, there's a war in Ukraine, this is increasing the price of basic food items, extreme weather drought is reducing crop yield in many county's, if oil is 100 dollars then the Fed cannot just stop inflation by raising rates. If the EU bans all Russian gas imports it will have to find more expensive sources of energy. If the Saudi, s have only 10 years of oil left why would they reduce the price. Some industry's are short of workers. They will have to raise pay rates to attract employees

    I think we might be at the peak of Western society, in terms of industrial production, and the low cost of goods, unless we take action to reduce energy use, and switch to green sources of energy

    There's no gauratee that economy's will recover

    This would require at the least close political cooperation of all EU America Eastern Europe Asia. This seems to be unlikely in the present crisis

    Saying we ll all switch over to electric cars in 10 years is not good enough

    There are protests in some country's now due to the rising cost of food bread basic items

    I think more people will simply switch over to buying non brand products I just buy Tesco bread milk biscuits etc

    There's an article on www.slate. com it says the fed can do little to control inflation the stock market sees a recession as the best solution to slow down inflation

    Even when goods are not going up in price they are reducing the no of items in the box

    We went thru this before the 70s oil crisis middle East war inflation. But we did not have extreme weather droughts or climate change to worry about I don't see any financial experts saying how we can get out of this one

    A recession for 1 or 2 years may be the easiest solution to reduce demand and the use of oil gas energy

    I think Japan is an exception in that they suffer from a falling birth rate and they were completely left behind by the silicon Valley tech boom the rise of the Web

    Working from home helps as it reduces commute times and reduces petrol consumption



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,327 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    How do you them? I have complained about my voucher allocation as I only get €13 off €120. Haven't been able to use them the last few weeks as haven't been spending that much on shopping.


    Also I do shop in my local supervalu every week. They have excellent quality meat, fish and veg. I would do a mix of branded and own brand foodstuff. Never would buy branded pasta but do like branded cereals. €2.99 for a packet of porridge is not bad value as it would last me 2 or 3 weeks. Also I'd stock up on weetabix when they are on special offer. Maybe it's on my head but to me there's definitely a difference in taste in the branded and own brand.


    Just as an aside I'm verging on my late 30's and 12 years ago when we got a mortgage we were paying 4.85% for it. We had fixed for 10 years and only came off that rate 2years ago. So it's not that long ago that rates were higher.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,237 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Does anyone actually believe that when house prices/rent practically doubled in the same period?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,654 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The basket of good used to measure CPI has been constantly changing over time, the impact property prices have on inflation is ever shrinking to make you think nothing is wrong and everything is great

    Same thing goes for asset classes like stocks - afaik they dont factor into CPI at all, despite massive inflation in asset markets over the last decade. Most new money over the last decade has gone into assets like stocks or crypto. Which is grand as long as it stays there, money in stocks or crypto doesnt really impact most of us in our day to day, but when they all start to try and cash out (such as in current crypto & stock crashes) then all that money goes elsewhere and exacerbates things for consumer goods too.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,695 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Dunnes also do €10 off €50 vouchers that you can get weekly and Tesco do €10 off €50 for online orders sporadically, along with sending out vouchers every few months. If you're disciplined and plan your shopping around the vouchers then you can make a decent saving on an ongoing basis. I tend to hop between the two.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,651 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Yes, but you didn't borrow 2-3 times the capital at that interest rate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 515 ✭✭✭TheTruth89


    Saudi Arabia has proven reserves equivalent to 221.2 times its annual consumption. This means that, without Net Exports, there would be about 221 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Ireland is not the eurozone writ large.

    A core economy like Germany experienced real estate deflation from 2000 until about 2016 and modest inflation thereafter. Netherlands the same put not quite for the same protracted time period as Germany. Spain had a deep real estate collapse and only modest real estate inflation from 2016/17 onwards.



  • Posts: 15,801 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This is a truly bizarre one

    Lenders will no longer have to check whether homeowners could afford mortgage payments at higher interest rates after the Bank of England ditched a rule originally designed to avoid another 2007-style credit crunch.

    The rule, introduced in 2014, was intended to make sure borrowers did not take on more debt than they could afford, and potentially “amplify” an economic downturn and put financial stability at risk.


    The decision to withdraw the affordability test comes despite the Bank of England having raised interest rates for a fifth time in a row to 1.25% last week as part of efforts to tackle soaring inflation, meaning some mortgage borrowers could be in line for higher repayments.




  • Posts: 9,005 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ended up leaving the HSE recently as public sector just isn't worth it with inflation at the moment. Locumming in community pharmacy now, roughly on average 70 euro/hr. Usually work at least one weekend day but only work 4 days a week (albeit long days with no lunch break). I'm lucky I had an out of the public service.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 414 ✭✭dorothylives


    The war in Ukraine is only a part of it though. Inflation was rising before it. The world essentially being shut for 2 years slowed down the coming recession but after 2 years of Covid it was always coming. I'd a quote for work done in the house well before the situation in Ukraine and the guy told me that whenever he got back to me the job would probably cost more as the price of materials was rising all the time. Governments are happy to blame Putin but it's a number of other factors. Despite this our noble leaders are buggering off for 12 weeks holiday now after a nice pay rise.



  • Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You just can't help yourself can you. Here you are again in a thread where people are struggling and the only contribution you can make is how much money you are making. Do you see anyone else making such posts? You really have the most horrible type of personality a person could have.

    I just feel sorry for anyone reading this thread who may be hungry and having to read your boasting every chance you get.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,895 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    I was wondering the same, was this that same poster. I’m fairly well paid and a few perks of my job but Christ I don’t need to go around announcing them publicly. Very much read like a rub salt in the wounds type post to me too. People are really struggling and by the grace of god it’s not one of us. You never know whats around the corner- redundancy, Ill health, major crisis or accident.



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  • Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's not even worth boasting about, that's the gas thing about it. As a locum, he'll have to pay his own accountant, full pension contributions, medical insurance, income protection, holiday pay, life assurance etc.

    Taking this into account, people working in IT or Finance, like many people on Boards, are just as well off if not more. Most don't need to go around boasting about it.



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