Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I know what you mean, however until there is some legal requirement to make aesthetic buildings its not grounds enough for the public to get stuff refused planning permission is it? Most planners dont really care about the look unless they actually live nearby themselves, in which case they are biased and shouldnt get a say.

New boards has no need for separate threads anymore, everything is a neverending megathread

Hard to call, could be a very mild recession up to world war 3 (non-nuclear, we hope)

The current conditions have been caused by governments and central banks. This time its countries that will fail, could they pull banks down with them? Share prices are way out of whack with historic norms so I'd expect much more losses there. Crypto has lost 2 trillion of its 3 trillion valuation last year. What potential contagion could all these correction unleash. Chinese property and banks, a bubble twice as big as the 08 collapse?

Multiple known unknowns each one with the potential to be devastating to the world economy. Could central banks krank up the money printers, of course, but where does that take us. Zimbabwe? Turkey. Alot of denial out there

It is concerning that opec is not raising production to any great degree, could there be collaboration between the big players to keep prices extremely high to counteract esg. Renewable power is a great threat to them scarce resources and high energy costs make renewable energy less likely. The last sting of a dying wasp or a changing world order?

Destabilisation in Africa, food crisis, ethnic tensions stoked and funded by The usual subjects. What your family is hungry! Come join our military and we will feed your family with food plundered from our neighbours. Syria for example

Ireland industry wise is strong with agri, pharma, med tech, Risks and opportunities from potential deglobalisation, would need house prices to drop significantly to maximise opportunities restore competitivenes

Govt debt atrocious and huge risk

That nimby video is hilarious, I actually think the guy making the videos does more harm than good to the nimby cause, it really shines a light on how ridiculous and selfish their views are.

It begins

Good to see Ireland is way down the list

surprised aus isnt higher up tbh

The problem with this chart is the rank is based on price to rent ratio, the rents here are in a ridiculous bubble propped up by government spending and squeezed by low availability of rental stock, it’s a delicate stack of cards and Ireland is exposed to the US market via MNC’s, I also think some of the money coming into the property market has been from people relocating back home from these hotspots after the COVID shock hit. That will change if other countries housing deflates.

Agreed - we got something right for once. I'd hope that anyone who was clamouring recently for those limits to be eased is now having a long hard look at themselves.

Anything goes as Boris and cronies try to survive just a little longer.....could be wrong but I see this as ameliorating a source of potential unrest in the short term and hang the long term issues....let the next ones in deal with that etc

Just a few notes on this.

Ireland is down 1 place from 22nd to 23rd on the last survey, this is despite a 14% increase in price. This seems rather odd

Credit growth is negative almost everywhere implying that the general public were aware of the risks and paying down debt aggressively. This would leave corporates and government wholly responsible for the current mess not dissimilar to the last bust, but of course they were quick to place the blame on the general populace.

Despite coming 2nd last in credit growth all other measures are flashing orange for Ireland showing the impact of investment funds driving up price and unaffordability. Were rent prices to income included it would paint a much grimmer picture for ireland

What do you mean by that. Many on this thread have pointed out that mismanagement of spending is an issue that contributes to inability to save. I am not surprised by the below. My son knows 3-4 lads that buy car tac by the half yearly and stage pay the car insurance. They have credit card bills as well.

BNPL is another element of this problem. It's a tactic by larger retailers as smaller independent ones have not the resources to fund and manage it. They usually charge a bit extra for the product as well

1 that may be the case but the 2021 report would probably have covered the worst of the lockdowns and that showed a figure of - 6%, while the current report is showing - 12.6%. This would imply that those covid savings in part were used to pay down debt

2 not disputing the impact of CBI rules, Gov had been trying for years to get a workaround, eventually they got it by bypassing them and handing the advantage through taxation to investment funds. One may argue that there carrying the risk, I disagree as they are well hedged through long term leasing and the government throwing €4,000,000,000 per year of our money at housing. As I say credit growth metric is a cold blue, the 2nd lowest of all measured while all other metrics are flashing orange, with the impact of untaxed rents not measured

35,800 vacant properties were classed as rentals, rather high figure. Most rentals must be short term now

Edit: Dublin and Galway cities have the highest proportion of empty rentals

I had an in-depth chat about this with a census enumerator. He did it in an Urban area with a village/small town in his area.

His vacancy rate was a bit above the average running at about 15%. He had 50 odd houses.

For sale was about 8-10 properties half of these needed major renovations and some were for sale 1+ years.

5-6 were abandoned farm houses of which only one was really half suitable for accomodation.

6 were council houses that were between lettings. Three were boarded up, two of the other three were being refurbished.

About 12-14 vacant rental properties it was his opinion that the owners were reluctant to relet over half of them another 4 were were in different stages of refurbishment however he taught that refurbishment costs were gone too expensive for LL to complete. Only about 2-3were really available for reletting.

There was nearly 12-14 houses where the owner was deceased.2/3 were in very poor condition and needed major upgrades. Inheritors seemed not to be interested in selling on. There was 5 I think that were in good condition. Only one was for sale and this was nearly sale agreed as far as he knew. The other two the owner had no intentions of renting or selling them he taught. There was two turned into holiday homes( inheritors held onto them as they were from the area but living,60-70+ miles away

There was about 4-5 where the owner were in nursing homes or gone to live with relatives most of these were in good condition, however there was only one where there was thinking to rent it.

He said there was 10ish pubs and shops where there was no accommodation being used over head. It was not listed as vacant or on the census register. There was four closed down pubs and another 5-6 closed down commercial premises that were vacant. While these were not enumerated he just commented on it.

Its probably fair to say any further house price growth will be very miinimal at this point

Some interesting comments from the last couple of days:

ESRI: ‘House prices are above where we would predict them to be’

Europe faces 'severe' risk of disorderly financial market correction: Lagarde

FRANKFURT, June 20 (Reuters) - The risk of an abrupt correction on Europe's financial and housing markets is high, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday.