Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

It is more likely to end with Russian occupying most of Donbass, but not progressing to Kramatorsk/Zaporozhe.

When winter comes gas and oil will become really big ticket issues, and most of EU will push for a settlement of some sort. Barring a total collapse of Russia or some big regime change in the next 6 months, Ukraine do not win this war or win back most of the occupied territory.

Germany and Italy are already in emergency states for gas supply, and its the middle of summer. They simply cannot fill reserves before winter which leaves them totally screwed. No amount of coal or lignite will save Germany now, they've made their bed essentially. No amount of pro-Ukrainian rhetoric will keep the german citizenry happy when energy prices skyrocket well beyond what they have now, and if god forbid gas rationing comes into play.

With Ukraine now officially approved for progression this has become all the EU's war, so we're all screwed together but either we hang together or we hang separately.

So you're saying they can fly them only twice before they're shot down?

It is not me saying this. Ukrainian drone pilots are saying this. They are hesitant to fly more expensive drones which are armed with missiles requiring to get less than 5 km to the target. They hardly survive more than 2 missions on average. They would prefer one time solution like kamikaze drones which are way cheaper and have bigger chance to actually get to the target.

‘UKRANIAN drone pilots are saying this’. Is there anything the UKranian army will not tell the Russians?

While you're here @Manic, will the (4) HIMARs make any difference on the battlefield and where and in what capacity do you expect them to be deployed?

How do the HIMARs do target acquistion, will the lack of drones in any way impact that? Or do they get co-ords from radar/satellite/other?

No it's Russia's and Putin's war of course, but it seems war is now decidedly interested in the EU + its member states (thank you, Russia!) even if the EU is the last body on Earth that would ever have been interested in war.

While Ukraine and the EU are not in any way ready for Ukraine to join today or tomorrow even if peace broke out, sainthood is not a requirement for joining up.

How about...

Maybe you could answer this Cuán?

No one can have a balanced view if they only hear one side of the story. 

I have no doubt on the resilience of the Ukrainian people, but situation is complex and has many layers.

There is little question that Putin is perceived as a bully, but that doesn't by default make the Ukraine president a Saint. It is not a my guy is good vs your guy is bad. 

Consider : The western world has kept Ukraine as the poorest country in Europe due to the World Bank loans hoisted upon it by corrupt politicians. You can look up Ukraine debt, its horrific. 

Ukraine with a very educated population, rich in engeneirs and technicians, with a wealth of resources, with great infrastructure, rich soil and agricultural potential and yet, is poorer than Bolivia.

 Ukrainian national recourses have been virtually given to foreign investors, sold for an egg and an apple as the locals say, and this is also easy to verify. The horrifically cruel intense beef cattle breeding as practised in the USA is now common in Ukraine. Most grain is now GMO grown in mega-farms, but there are almost no traditional ukranian farmers involved, they were all forced out, also easily verifiable if you want to. Most farms belong to group of six or so ukranian billionaires with links to Monsanto. 

The reason for the poverty being that the loan interests suck the wealth from the coffers, and produce no income as the loan money went into the pockets of the elite and the bankers, and foreign nationals own most of the countries recourses often through proxy oligarchs. Look it up, it's easy! 😊

Hunter Biden, Paul Pelosi Jr - Kerry's son and a string of offspring of American politicians hold directorship in Ukrainian banks, Energy companies, bio labs etc. Look it up!

Ukraine donated nearly a billion dollars to the Clinton foundation and no one queries this. Look it up.

Even today Ukranian oligarchy buy the infantile 'art' that Hunter Biden churns out paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in return for favors from daddy. You can see his art on Google, I think Coco the chimp's paintings are better. 

Have you wondered why the poverty? 

Well poor people everywhere are vulnerable, so beautiful Ukrainian women are coerced and shipped off as prostitutes all around the world where they become entrapped as sex slaves by organized mafia and are kept drugged up to their eyes so they can never escape . This is also verefiable, they are known as Russian prostitutes, they are not, they are ukranian. 

Ukraine is the biggest supplier of child prostitutes for the elite - not yet provable but I'm hoping evidence will surface. 

Kiev is also the center for money laundering for drug dealers, arms smugglers and prostitution rings through Ukrainian banks some of which have American directors. All this happens under Zelensky 's watch, and whose personal net worth has rocketed to over US$ 1 billion since he came into power. Just Google it, it's that easy! Yes Putin is rumored to be richer. 

The USA has 25 pharmaceutical bio laboratories in Ukraine, where desparate people allow themselves to be injected with experimental drugs with no recourse. Let's not speak of the organ harvesting. Or the bio weapons, which can no longer be dismissed as propaganda as there was admission of this by Victoria Newland in congress a few weeks ago, and there is a panic that MSM is trying desperately to ignore this, just like they try to ignore a certain lap top. 

Most of Europe benefit from dirt poor ukranian workers who work for slave wages so they don't starve, they have no rights, who cries crocodile tears for them? 

The democratically elected Ukraine government was deposed by the CIA using the AZOF Battalion, and they put Poroshenko in power, one of Ukraine's richest oligarchs. Oh and Zelensky had the opposition politicians jailed recently jailed. Not much of that in MSM. 

The signed Minsk agreement was never honored. Russia does not want hostile missiles on its doorstep, just as Kennedy did not want Soviet missiles in Cuba.

The 14.000 Donetsk residents killed by Ukraine army. The children's beach cluster bombing by ukranian forces, there is a memorial for the 100+ child deaths when Russian speaking children were on a national holiday Non of it appears in any of the media, no one cries for them either. 

My deep feelings go to the suffering and brave Ukrainian people who are just as in the dark about what is happening, but anyone who supports the current ukranian government is blind to the fact that they may be supporting the true dark ones. Why does anyone support this most corrupt regime with no questioning? Ask yourself why when Rand Paul suggested in congress the aid given should be monitored the majority of senators said no, why?

Did you know at davos the head of the atomic control board Rafael Grossi of IAESA publicly disclosed that in secret and against all laws, Ukraine was enriching uranium and plutonium to weapons grade. Russia siezed hundreds of kgs that was concealed in Chernobyl, that's why they went there and then left. What for instance would the world say if they discovered such a case in Iran? But hey, the western media said nothing! 

This war is big profit for the weapons manufacturers who are rubbing their hands in glee as they use your tax money for javelin missiles instead of nurses wages. Oh yes, someone is paying for it! 

These are the easiest to prove facts, there is much more and worse to be said, and maybe some will be disclosed one day.

Putin is no Saint, and I doubt very much that he is doing this purely to liberate the Ukrainians from the big American corporates, but the truth be told, I hope he kicks every one of the cabal of evil out, and hopefully the long suffering and beautiful ukranians get a government they deserve.

So don't just dismiss data that doesn't fit your favorite narrative as fake, rather encourage others to learn to think for themselves, to do their own research and reach their own conclusions.

We need people to wake up not just repeat what they have been told. 😊, even if you totally think this is propaganda, hopefully if you have read this far, I have planted a seed.

Some copy and paste job.

At least be man enough to write your own views.

Taking that aside, you think all of the above justifies Russia dropping bombs on kids and blowing their heads off their bodies?

We might differ on the "soon" (for me that would be about 10 years...), but it (another EU expansion) probably has to happen and the clock is ticking on it.

Forgetting about Ukraine, the EU is not ready for it now though imo (even if all the members agreed). If it tries to expand any further without changes to the veto in particular, and also continues to be expected to take on all these new roles its doing in crises (like the Russia sanctions, helping Ukraine + before that tacking a pandemic), it will be gridlocked or fragment or most likely both - a period of stasis resulting in growing anger in groups of members being vetoed, followed up by ultimatums and fragmentation into sub-groups to go ahead with the things being blocked.

That process is going to be acrimonious, likely quite damaging and harmful for Europe. This happening to the EU is not in the interests of either the current members or countries that wish to join it. Yes the structural funds might be attractive but doubt they will want to join a dysfunctional organisation that can't do anything new, or change and adapt because of deadlocks, or ends up blowing apart into factions blaming each other.

Your above scenario relies on Russia turning off the gas supplies completely to Europe. Tell us the technical implications of that for the Russian gas wells. Take your time and think it through fully.

Why would anyone be bothered singling you out + abusing you 4 months or so into this? 1 of a multitude.

The endless stream of posters that parade about on here with the knowing, smirking pro Russia views is just a little bit sad now, whatever the truth of who or what they are.

I think the worst possibility is taking posts at face value, alot of them are not Irish, but do live here among us, likely biting their tongues hard while holding us in contempt and taking us for utter fools really. If so, that's a bit galling + wose than actual "bots".

There could be lots of colonial admin jobs opening up in Ukraine if Putin gets all he desires. If they still really believe he + Russia have been maligned + they are doing God's own work over there bringing this bright "Nazi"-less future to Ukraine, maybe they will pack their bags and f-ck off (but chance would be a fine thing).