Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Total supply on Daft now over 17,000 - it's going up pretty consistently, at the rate of ~1,000 every 3-4 weeks. Below is a graph based on my own recordings (I stopped taking notes in Q4 2022 so a lack of data there.)

I viewed 6 properties this week, 4 of the 6 were ex-rentals with the landlord getting out of the business. God help any poor sod trying to find somewhere to rent, at least until all the new apartments being built come onto the market.

I'd question whether the figure of 33% of applicants not needing the grant to meet the deposit is realistic. If your applying for a grant will you be declaring all your savings for the process. A UK survey found that 2 thirds of applicants did not need the grant for a similar scheme.

Notable that those 2 reports were done in 2017 and 2021 coinciding with Brexit and COVID, 2 issues that were expected to have a negative effect on price.

Also notable that the average claim which is a percentage of the house price purchased almost doubled in the 5 years between 2017 (13,000) & 2021 (24,000+)

‘Game-changer’ First Home scheme to help bridge gap for squeezed middle home buyers

It is designed to bridge the gap for those whose "income is too low" to get them "a big enough" mortgage to buy their first home.

Typical beneficiaries of the scheme would be a couple with an income of €70,000, who want to buy a €320,000 new home.

After putting up a 10pc deposit, the most they can borrow is €277,000. This leaves "a gap" of €43,000.

The three main banks have signed up to the scheme which will see the State providing an interest-free stake of up to 30pc in the home.

one could argue perhaps people's incomes here are not too low .. many other countries differ on that .. perhaps the real problem is that house prices here are far too high ..... over valued even as alluded to obliquely by the ESRI last week .. this is just unfortunately another popular measure by government to artificially drive prices even higher .. once again the tax payer is paying the bill to further distort the market...

Builders will sign up in their droves to this and will further inflate prices. It's more developer led nonsense to subsidize the market. New homes are been snapped up in minutes as is.

The worst scheme at the worst possible time, similar to 110% mortgages before the 08 crash. Demand brought forwad

This time its different!

The minister is still spouting this spiel

First of all the HTB scheme is 50% over budget, expect the same. if not more here

75m will be on average say 20% of the house price bring that to 90% for the total mortgage state + Bank and that's well over 300million

Total mortgage market of 15billion includes existing homes. This scheme is only available for new builds. Only a third of new builds are made available for sale to the public so this scheme will have a significant impact on the already distorted new build market.

The new build market is now almost completely detached from what buyers can afford through this scheme, 0 tax investment funds, social housing purchase and long term leasing leaving very little for those that wish to go out and purchase off their own backs.

The final wind in the bubble, maximising the damage of the next crash when it comes

Does anyone know how they are determining the cost of the scheme.

Is it the proportion of the stake the state is taking in the house or the interest element or both

Does the stake have to be paid back by the recepient like a mortgage or is it recouped on sale or could it even be a gift

I haven’t read the entire report but don’t be fooled by these as they’re reflecting asking prices. EA’s will change tactics depending on markets and you’ll notice a move from pricing low to drum up a bidding war to pricing at their valuation or above to appease the vendor.

The result will be to drive apartment, small terrace houses, and duplex construction, and drive prices of those options up to the limit of the scheme.

From the Daft report.

They say 12,400 homes were for sale at the start of this month, yet today there are over 17,000 homes for sale on Daft.

Whats going on here?

If you exclude sites there's 14000 for sale currently so I presume that's the difference

I've been watching the numbers for a while, and a few thousand sites sounds about right. In terms of total properties for sale (houses and sites), it's been going up about a thousand a month for the last couple of months.