Share Picks 2022

I think the crash still has further to run my guess is another 4-5 months. I think it will bottom out when the predictions of a recession prove to be accurate (ie recession is confirmed)

The speed and degree of policy tightening may prove too much for economies to handle, particularly given the commodity price shock currently in play,” economists at NAB bank in Australia said in a note on Friday. “As a result, recession risk for several of the major advanced economies, including the US, is uncomfortably high.”“David Bassanese, chief economist of Betashares in Sydney, went further and predicted a US recession “within the next 12 months” due to persistent inflation and the Fed’s pledge to raise rates until the inflation genie is back in the bottle. As a result, he said that share markets in the US had further to fall. There seems scope for equity markets to fall further. My base case is the ultimate peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 will be 35%, implying a decline to 3,100 from its closing peak of 4,796 on 3 January.” It closed at 3,667 points on Thursday.

This is implying a further 15% fall in S&P which is likely to mean a larger fall in Nasdaq. For those looking to get in the market my advice would be pick a number that you think is going to be the bottom then start buying when the number is hit.

I would wait for the next 75bps raise in a few weeks time before buying anymore risk assets. Then go from there to see where things are.

Ok, don't go changing your alias in the meantime

In its simpliest form; 'cheap' stocks can get a lot cheaper than anyone realises and 'expensive' stocks can go a lot higher than anyone realises, you have to know where you are in the current market cycle. I'm not going to buy stocks in a bear market, nor am I going to buy new positions late in a bull market. It all comes down to risk management and compounding out your gains, it becomes very difficult to compound when you keep averging down. Buying beat down stocks appears ok if you are an extremely passive investor, i.e. your just chucking money in the hope to make something, but then your stock selection needs to be impeccable as a lot of these beat down names will take many years to recover and many will never reach prior highs again, the odds are stacked against you.

There's a big debate between Value and Growth investors, it's best to figure out which style suits your personality and focus on that. You'll never make money if you try to force a style that does not agree with your beliefs. For me, buying beat down names would never work, I'm an optimist and believe in strength and innovation, that's backed by over 100 years of research that's available for study. Every cycle has new leaders that nobody will have heard of, leaders from the old cycle very very rarely lead a new market, that's a fact and I'd rather have facts and proven history on my side than my opinions.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Buffett is just one style of investing and is what most people are introduced to when they first look into the space. Some of the considered greatest investors of all time are not value investors. Growth stocks grow earnings at a much higher rate than value stocks and in a bull market growth will far outperform value, on the flip side, in a poor market, like we have now, value will typically outperform so that's why it's important for growth investors to understand market cycles and know when to sit on your hands. Value is often referred to as defensive stocks where funds, who need to be invested at all times, can park their money in poor markets while they wait for conditions to improve. This may sound a bit oversimplfied but you don't have to buy stocks cheap to make money, you just need to sell them for higher than you bought, and you do that buy buying correctly at the beginning of a new uptrend.

To be honest you really don't need to understand what growth investing is all about if you are a value investor and if that strategy is working for you that's all that matters. There is an unlimited number of ways to make money in the stock market and trying to understand every way is not possible, all that matters is you focus on one style that works for you and you keep what you make 👍

Not too many days you see google up 4% and meta down 4%

Meta seems fantastic value. Basically it is pricing in zuckerberg just blowing all that free cash

This may not be the right place to look for help but...

Im trading on degiro, I want to buy providence resources, but I cant find it can anyone help ?

Some day on the markets. Back to green this week

"headwinds are fierce"..."serious times"

And the share price doesn't move... must be because the market loves companies cutting back on opex and increasing FCF