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Irish birthrate slumps 22% in a decade

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,009 ✭✭✭conorhal


    At least the 'xenophobic Irish first nonsense' is efficient, compared to your nonsense, which will take at least several more decades to turn Ireland into a third world country. Perhaps instead, we could address the fact that we have allowed corporate interests to transform work and society into an utterly hostile envirornment to the very concept of family.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,606 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'll believe it when I see evidence. In my experience, this tends not to be forthcoming.

    Corporate interests didn't turn work and society into a hostile environment as you say, conservatives did.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Amazing that the birthrate could fall so much in a decade.

    I'd expect that quite few working people nowadays would have a house or a child by 30. Until relatively recently it'd be unusual for a woman not to have any children by age 33, but that wouldn't be a bit unusual now. Things have changed hugely really, large families are not very common anymore, four would be seen as a big family now, whereas once it might have been about average. The UK used to have smaller family sizes than us, but more and more Ireland is like that with fewer kids very much the norm.


    One concern I'd have is that culture doesn't encourage having children nowadays. I think many younger people, even my own kids, don't realise how rewarding it is. It strikes me that many younger people only see downsides, even though being a parent is fantastic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Increase in education levels, especially among women, is correlated with smaller family size. As is increase in prosperity - prosperous parents have fewer children. And, it's a cycle - fewer children means lower expenses and a better lifestyle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,566 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    It costs money to have a child. A lot. And many people just have it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,766 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,766 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    A nice study of fertility:


    A new era in the economics of fertility

    Matthias Doepke, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermann, Michèle Tertilt 11 June 2022

    As fertility rates have declined in high-income countries, the cross-country relationship between women’s labour supply and fertility has reversed. Today, in countries where more women are working, more babies are born. This column suggests that classic models of fertility no longer explain ultra-low fertility rates in high-income countries, where the compatibility of women’s career and family goals are now a key driver of fertility decisions. The authors highlight four factors that facilitate combining a career and childbirth: family policy, cooperative fathers, favourable social norms, and flexible labour markets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Shoog


    If you misidentify the source of a problem then you will propose ineffective solutions. Immigrants are not the source of the Irish housing crisis - the cause is the response to the financial crisis of a over a decade ago. Cheap money for the super wealthy means they can buy up all the assets, including houses, and rent it out to everyone else at vast profit. Thats what heppens when you allow a sector to monopolize an asset. Government policy encouraged this.

    Immigrants don't buy houses - they rent houses - if there are no houses to buy then you have to ask who has them and why.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭Greyfox


    Those possible downsides should not be ignored as parenting is very hard work. Parenting is not for everybody and I'm glad more people these days are weighing up the many pros and many cons before deciding.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,639 ✭✭✭completedit


    Revolution is in the air. 10 years I gave it unless they've placated us so much with their entertainment products. The show is up and Russia Ukraine and the loose monetary policy combined with the global warming is gonna change our society in a way that we haven't seen since the French Revolution.

    The capitalism we have had since the 80s has benefited capitalism itself and the ultra rich. It feeds into our lizard brain though because those who do well think they are the winners and in some ways they are. They then enjoy the fruits of their efforts and the cycle repeats itself like a virus. If you step outside the game you're a loser. We are all complicit in this bullshit. And what we have to show for it is the anericanisation of the globe and a Starbucks on every corner. **** that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr



    A hundred thousand PPS numbers issued to non Irish last year, apparently this is not the major driver in the availability of housing because.... they werent buying houses 😂

    I'll give the Irish left one thing, their commitment to the reciting their lines regardless is exemplary



  • Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭spontindeed


    If demand for housing outstrips supply because of the immigration surge, it's common knowledge that Irish people and couples won't be able to find housing or even rent. The only way to curtail demand for housing is to curtail non-EU migration here thus making it easier for professional working people to find housing/accommodation. We can't keep paving over our countryside. If anything, I think we will need legislation to take down the SDH high-rise developments that were previously granted between 2016 and now and use some of the Apple Tax to compensate the owners fully or partly (depending on whether or not they're individuals or cuckoo funds). This would be retroactive and it can be legally done, because it would be in the public interest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Shoog


    So you do not see that vast tracks of housing have been bought up by vulture funds for rental at exorbitant rates ?

    Your only able to see the issue you want to focus on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭Hamachi


    If you can’t understand that the exorbitant levels of inward migration to this country aren’t a significant contributory factor to the housing crisis, it doesn’t say much for your powers of comprehension.



  • Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭spontindeed


    We can't keep paving over our countryside. There seems to be a simplistic solution of 'more housing' but no matter how much housing we keep building, we will never be able to keep up with demand if we don't curtail non-EU immigration here. We would just be building all over the place and that's not sustainable. The Government needs to make multinationals and cuckoo funds pay higher taxes or force them to pay potential back taxes in order to cool the overheating economy while at the same time using the tax money to target Irish professional working people to procreate. Only working people should be entitled to it, like for example in Hungary.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,443 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    So what is your excuse for the housing crisis in the 50s, 60s, 70s…… beyond pretending it never existed. Ireland is a wealthy first world country that could go along way to solving the housing crisis if it followed the same approach as other EU member states, but that is not what the voters want.

    The voters want/demand that the solution to the housing crisis must be that everyone should be able to own a house at a reasonable cost. That has never worked in the past nor for that matter in any other Anglo sphere country and it is not going to work now either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,566 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭Mike Murdock


    I agree @Jim2007

    Security of tenure when it comes to renting is critical. Not one-year leases, but three to five-year leases with no rental increases allowed during that period and a subsequent cut in the tax that Landlords have to pay. It's around 40% now, which is insane.

    But, it will be difficult to change a culture that believes that "Rent is dead money".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...again, what people are truly looking for is 'security of accommodation', hence why theres a want and need for ownership, as its an attempt in doing so, again, ownership in ireland is actually on par with european averages, but since we ve also imported modern ideologies such as financialisation of our property markets, we to are now also experiencing its dysfunctions and failures, primarily serious supply problems, along side hyper inflated prices.....



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,009 ✭✭✭conorhal



    Add a million people to the country in a manner that is utterly inorganic and difficult to plan for, be surprised there is a housing shortage and pretty much all other services come under strain.

    Add hundreds of thousands of migrants that (as you point out) rent and then watch the building sector pivot to build lucrative buy-to-let shoebox properties to accomodate that market, be surprised that there are no houses to buy.

    Import hundreds of thousands of wagie's to do minimum wage jobs, people who pay little tax and expatriate what megre saving they make and are a net drain on the economy, be surprised that immigrants aren't actually going to 'pay for your pension' and the age at which you will qualify for one goes up despite all the migrants that have arrive tp 'pay for your pension' as we keep getting told.

    Reduce your society to nothing but an economy of transiant workers and citizens to nothing but a PPS number, and be surprised when social cohesion collapses.

    I could go on, and on but it would probably be fruitless. Mass immigration is nothing less then a pyramid scheme.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...again, immigration is a consequences not a causation!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    There is some frustration in this thread and I think it's understandable.

    It's a pretty sad indictment of Ireland at the moment that people in stable relationships won't have children because they can't afford a house.


    In my local paper today I saw that the county of Clare's population has increased by 40% since the 90s, no doubt this is the case across most of the country. Of course there was very little planning for this and houses have become very expensive. The fall in the birth rate is almost certainly tied up with this.

    Someone else said that there could be a revolution. I wouldn't be as dramatic as that, but if SF come to power promising to promote cheaper housing and more protection for workers rather than encouraging FDI it'll be a huge political moment. I'd be very cynical about SF, but if people can't afford basics like a house and feel they can't have children then there is a huge need for an upheaval.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,766 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I can't see how there can be a different income tax rate for rental income versus all other types of income.

    There might be other tax changes possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ah tis in the post now, it ll be interesting to see how sf get on, but you can already see peoples expectations of them are already too great, they re gonna struggle to live up to them....

    we need the fdi, but their interests should not exceed our needs...

    i found this times podcast equally interesting yet disturbing at the same time, you can see how lost our main parties are with this....

    https://player.fm/series/irish-times-inside-politics/do-fine-gael-get-it-una-mullally-debates-neale-richmond



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Expectations are way too high for sure. They could find it very hard to make house prices ten per cent more affordable, if they were to achieve that I'd count it as an achievement. But one way or another the demand for a strong left wing party is here now, I doubt it'll go away either. To bring it back to the thread, if people in their 30s find it so hard to afford having children then society does need to be reset to some extent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    im not convinced its possible to significantly reduce the price of housing, in fact, it may remain climbing, governments have limited abilities to control such prices, sf would probably be better off significantly increasing output, but keep the majority of these new properties in public ownership, place these new assets in sovereign wealth funds, this will help to provide us with our future needs, and offer these properties for long term rent. this would solve many issues, the most important being providing, 'security of accommodation' to those that need it...

    yes anger is peaking now, but expectations are to, these issues will not be resolved quickly, they ll take many years to attempt to, sf will require a couple of terms to try, but the electorate may not give them that, that leaves the door open for the extremes! we really do need to be very careful what we wish for here!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Irish left: We don't understand that demand is a critical factor in pricing 😂

    So much fun to see the Irish left performing all sorts of acrobatics to protect their sacred cows



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...and many dont understand, ignoring the overall money supply, in particular the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, and its dangers, leads to catastrophic failures!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    "Lists and graphs and GDPs and indexes and stuff" says Una Mullally on that podcast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, our political system and the metrics it uses to reflect on progress, have virtually disconnected from whats actually occurring, and they are digging their heals in, simply not accepting our reality, i.e. theyre done!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Yes, yes, I'm sure the NERI will give you chapter and verse on the evils of anything other than planned economies

    All of which has nothing to do with the endless demand for housing driving up the cost of housing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    You keep repeating yourself like its a mantra to ward off evil, despite the fact that it's not relevant to the topic at hand. You're blathering about macroenomics to avoid doing simple maths.

    Do you accept that our massive immigration levels are a key factor in driving up the cost of housing?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    really! so the money supply, in particular the private sector money supply, i.e. private debt/credit, has had little or no effect in our housing markets, otherwise know as financialisation of markets!

    yes, immigration is indeed adding to the problem, but it isnt the causation of it!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    So you're saying its adding to the problem but is not a cause of the problem, which is contradictory

    So if we revoked every visa issued in the last three years and an absolute stop to all immigration for the next year, our housing costs would not decrease then, as per your contradictory analysis?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    of course its not contradictory, is clearly obvious, we ve been experiencing serious property problems, long before many of these folks turned up, this is clearly obvious!

    no, probably not, as theres clearly many younger citizens, still unable to get access to our property markets, noting, we re still giving birth!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    That's funny because a few posts back you were claiming that immigration is a consequence of the housing crisis and not a cause.

    If you have a housing market above capacity and add a hundred thousand people to the market in a year, does that increase the demand for housing?

    It's very, very simple but despite your predelication for banging on about macroeconomics, you have to dance around it.

    Weird.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Bying up assets is how monopolies control demand and price



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    immigration is generally due to multiple consequences, from wars, to deliberate crushing of economies, climate related, etc etc, but it is not causing our property problems, its just adding to it!

    again, yes, immigration is adding to it, but not causing it!

    ....and again....oh why bother!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Immigration, over a long period of time, since the mid 90s, has been quite high. It absolutely is a major reason for the shortage of housing now, maybe the biggest single factor.

    Between 2002 and 2012 there was a population gain of over 300,000 through immigration. As lately as 2019 there was a nett gain of over 33,000 due to migration, so using the average household size as a guide, 12,000 new homes were needed that year to keep pace with immigration.

    That's not to say that immigration is undesirable, but it most certainly has been a huge factor in rising costs of housing.

    I also think it's important to have an honest dialogue in the country about immigration and the overall impact. There are many skilled immigrants, many very hard workers, many who add hugely to Ireland. Not of that is in doubt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    for someone with a yen for economics you're a bit shaky on stringing coherent responses together


    Another lad who can only reply by repeating a stock response like he's reciting the rosary. Simple question, can't answer.

    If you have a housing market above capacity and add a hundred thousand people to the market in a year, does that increase the demand for housing?

    Argue that it doesnt, gwan.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The primary reason for housing shortage the shear number of vacant units. It shocked me walking around Dublin recently as to the number of obviously vacant units in not terrible areas, especially those above ground floor commercial premises. And in commuter towns and villages no one wants to live on the street anymore.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭Mike Murdock


    Well if you believe Varadkar, which means taking a politician at his word which is a dangerous, some would say foolhardy, thing to do, then the Government are looking to decrease the level of tax landlords will have to pay.

    But again, this is a politician that blithely tweeted out 6 years ago, that his Government would scrap USC.

    So take it with a ton of salt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,566 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    48,000 dwellings that were recorded as vacant in 2016 remained vacant in 2022. There are 7,995 vacant houses and 16,321 vacant apartments in Dublin city centre alone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭donaghs


    Haven't there always been vacant dwellings? Perhaps stats will say otherwise, but with current property prices and rents, I'd imagine they are at a low point - but are still there.

    My memories of 80s Dublin, parts of the city centre were so vacant, they were practically falling down. Less people wanted to live in the "inner city" back then. Abandoned houses in suburban areas were more common then. I can recall 3 in the 1950/1960s built estates around where i grew up.

    Edit: the stats above seem to show that vacant dwellings are at a low point, compared with 5 and 10 years ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Your referenced figure of 100,000 new PPS numbers issued has accounted for the to the 60,000 births that took place in 2021 ?

    That leaves a maximum of 40,000 immigrants - which in turn most will be for EU citizens.


    You can try to focus on immigrants as the source of all your grievances - but don't expect to be taken seriously by anyone with half a grey cell to apply to the issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Yes it does, 100 thousand PPS issued to non Irish. When we were in lockdown. You're also assuming that if a birth that takes place in Ireland it means the child is Irish

    None of which explains why you can't figure out an answer to a simple question: If you have a housing market above capacity and add a hundred thousand people to the market in a year, does that increase the demand for housing?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,187 ✭✭✭Shoog


    My answer is consistent here - address the issue of vulture funds sucking up all the available property and renting it out at rates beyond the means of the average wage earner. This is a policy issue which is in the hands of the government to control - but instead they chose to encourage it because they are the beneficiaries.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Can't answer a simple question, dodge dodge dodge instead



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