FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

A continued decline in the RedC polls might change opinions in FG. Bear in mind that Varadkar has lost seats in ever election that FG contested since he was installed as leader. Far from being some great new hope for FG, he's been a disaster. He would have been gone after the 2020 GE only for the Covid pandemic making a mess of politics. The report by Michael Ring into FG's performance in the GE that mentioned that 4 out of every 5 FG seats were in danger may have helped some FGers realise that the party is in trouble both in the polls and potentially at any future election with Varadkar as leader. RedC uses a 40K panel rather than a random sample of the electorate so FG would be foolish to place their hopes on just RedC. The B&A polls tend to favour FF and FF's support is likely to be between the RedC % and that in B&A's. If FF starts to consistently outpoll FG in B&A and rise in the others (RedC and Ireland Thinks) then FG members may be a bit more worried.

Regards...jmcc

To a pretty well-known ex-FF minister who prospered from the rise in SF support. TBH I think you are reading far too much into the significance polls. A snapshot in the middle of an economic crisis is never going to go well for incumbents. Even so, there is no election on the horizon for the best part of two years so polls just say that people are currently unhappy.

Varadkar will get his stint and most probably lead them into a 2024 election. How that goes is anyone's guess but in their favour is the obvious repeat option of a stable government. A SF return of over 60 seats neither guarantees government nor stability so both traditional parties may well be able to limp into another five years in power, even at lower rates of support.

I wonder what that report is based on. I suspect it may have been put out there to dispel complacency among FG TDs, even those holding what might be perceived as 'safe seats'. Certainly even FG 's poorer opinion poll results don't suggest seat losses on anything like that scale.

This guy is predicting slight seat gains for both FF and FG in the next election, with SF's seat gains coming at the expense of the rest of the left.

IMO he is underestimating SF's gains but even if FG were to come in a bit down on that in the low 30s under Varadkar, it think that would be a decent showing, given they will have been in power for nearly 15 years at that stage, and economic conditions are likely to remain turbulent between now and then.

Jesus this Navan hospital situation is so chaotic. Minister Donnelly seems to be completely ostracised.

Is she the weak link on their party ticket though?

I would imagine Leo does a lot worse than her in elections, I think he got in on the 4th or 5th count? She was only a one-term rep due to Leo. As for Petty - Leo much? Are you forgetting his tantrums? Her paranoia seems to have been justified... IIRC many of her constituents were on the radio during the by-election saying that they wanted to vote for her. Leo had convince Eoghan Murphy to run again when all he wanted was out. Couldn't handle the pressure.

Leo didn't even get the overall FG majority vote for the leadership. I would imagine he is a very weak ticket, The elections that they have lost under him show that.

I'm just talking about in that constituency and she was by far the weaker of the two candidates. She was a one term rep because of Chris Andrews and the rise of the SF vote. FG were still in around 28%-29% share for both elections but Andrews went from under 10% to 16% in 2020. Varadkar does what he needs to do in a competitive constituency. Do people genuinely do the top of party vote? Mostly I see local preferences at work.

FG got nearly 28% share in 2020. Murphy got 16.03% of that. Andrews on his own got 16.07% so it's pretty obvious it was nothing else. As for the toxic thing well that's a price any party would pay to stay in power for up to 8 years. There are many ways to power and he is aided by the public who will not be specific enough on what it is they want. Bear in mind, the PDs, with never more than 10 seats, were in 4 governments.

I'm not so sure about that. If FF essentially face a choice between putting SF and FG into power there'll be a big onus on them to go with the former. By that stage FG will have been in power for nearly 15 years and will be looking very jaded. Whereas SF will have a massive bandwagon behind them on likely 70ish seats. If FF cut another deal with FG in those circumstances it'll look like the establishment parties ganging up to frustrate the wishes of the people...

If the people made choices other than AB(FFG) one would respect it but they don't and then they get annoyed when parties have to sort out the business of forming a government they say they didn't want. SF really can't win 70 seats plus off 36% and they will be back down by election time. I think FF will favour the status quo over giving up their Republican party claim to SF.

If I commented on some particular aspects of her being female, you may have a point. For example, there was a big pile on Helen McEntee when she announced her pregnancy, people commenting on her hair, her ability to do her job as a mother and being missing from her post because of her having a baby.

THAT is misogynistic.

I can't see them getting 70 seats but if they got late 50s, I can't imagine FG and FF combination are much more than that. They're 72 now isn't it and they likely drop seats from that based on their performance and people's anger, and Greens drop too.

Can't they? FG won 76 seats in 2011 on the back of 36% of FPV. People keep saying SF have peaked in the polls but they keep rising...

Tut Tut (Again)