Russia - threadbanned users in OP

It’s not going well on the ground for Ukraine according to the Guardian.

" .. you subscribe to this whole feint buisness .. "

You need to read my comments better, I never implied I subscribed to that idea .. which is why i said MIGHT and HAPPENSTANCE ...It might have been intentional, or just happenstance.

But your missing the strategic difference that it has already caused, in recent months Russia has for sure made advancements in the EAST and consolidated positions that would not have been possible if the Ukrainain forces in Kyiv had not been tied down. The historians can write the books after and nail down exactly why things were done, for now its best to deal with the result of whats happening and deal with the reality.

Yep the Ukrainiains are able to rotate in and rest up and Russian soldiers dont have that option. Im not sure the Russian leaders care that much about their soldiers, its not like Russia has a great history of treating their frontline combatants very well, many nations have failed on that. When the Ukrainian soldier returns to the front line, the front line will have moved WEST not EAST. Thems the facts folks, I dont like it, but its REALITY.

So its a choice between a Ukrainian soldier resting up whilst they are losing ground and territory, or a Russian soldier not resting who is winning ground and territory.

Either way a Russian springtime offensive that has made inroads in the East and gained cities and territory will now have to be removed during a winter time campaign, else we have to wait till next Spring. Taking a city in warfare has always been a major issue for every nation, sure Russia is losing forces as they fight street by street, but Ukraine will have to retake those and may suffer the same losses. Rains and cold will start late August, early September, from a military perspective things become more complicated to oust a position once winter sets in.

Perhaps Putins forces have learned from their Kyiv attempt, and changed their tactics . Its what happens in warfare, not my rules, just thats the way it is. All military campaigns do this. You know better than most the American military have probably perfected the art of making monumental fk ups in war and then changing their strategy.

Lots of similarities to the Battle for Kiev in 1941. Obviously not an exact replay. James Holland (Military historian of note) did a podcast about the Battles for Kiev in 41 and 43 and made alot of analogies. In that instance German First Panzer division encircling Russian forces , resulted in one of the largest battles known to mankind, 700,000 Russians captured and Germany once it had completed its usual massacres of civilians, continued onto Leningrad and Moscow. Stalin had been told to pull his forces back but he didnt . But in this instance it was possible a battle Germany would have been better off losing, as it meant they over ran their culmination point and over extended. Plus they loss of a German soldier was more impactful to them than the loss of a Russian soldier. Seems Putin attempted a Panzer like attack on Kyiv, suffered losses but actually pulled back his forces before it was too late unlike Stalin in 41, and meanwhile made some progress in the East and Russian tank command has adopted its tactics since. So maybe was Kyiv 22 a battle that Putin was better off to lose from a military perspective. No need to get upset with me folks, its what James Holland (war historian) not me refers to as " winning themselves to death, no point in winning battles if you are destroying yourself "

Its all fascinating, lots to be learned from it, this war really is a condensed proxy of everything.

Anyways lets hope Ukraine does its version of the Red Armys Battle of Kiev 43 and retakes their lost territory and we dont have to wait 2 years.

Long live Ukraine.

Russian GRAIN harvest is projected to hit or be close to a record this year. Rusisan grain is not under an embargo per se, I believe they can freely sell it on the open market (open to correction) .

So Ukrainian grain is being left to rot (calm down Im not sowing dis-information about Ukraine grain its President Zelensky words not mine) in warehouses in Ukraine , the ports in the East are mined, seaborne transport of grain is limited, rail tracks in Ukraine are of Russian guage and trains cant run into the EU all grain most be unloaded again at the border for transport to EU. Obviously the planting season in Ukraine is under sever pressure, with about 95 percent of Ukraine wheat is winter wheat, planted in the fall and harvested during July and August of the following year .

Meanwhile Putins regime is locking in a bumper harvest, and will export this when prices will be sky high. More revenue for Putins regime.

Has Putin thought this aspect of how the global food system works, thru and is he playing a long term game with the west knowing he holds strong cards regarding food commodities. If this war goes on into 2023, we may look fondly back on 2022 prices in the supermarket.

When people are starving in the developing world they wont care who they have to pay for food., would you ?

I dont think our Western leaders response , sanctions etc are doing much, other than raising the cost of a loaf of bread for the man in the street.