Housing supply issues affecting Europe -why?

Taking in millions of refugees is going to affect available supply surely?

Easy credit to buy cheap **** made in china.

The rise in prices in dublin. started about 4 years ago, I saw houses going for 100k to 150k in 2015. Affordable by ordinary workers, now gen z is screwed, unless they live at home, pay no rent, then they can maybe save up a deposit , houses go up due to lack of supply, plus inflation, building materials costs are up by 35 per cent , so we have 1000s of people bidding on the few houses left for sale

They simply cannot make high rise accommodation which is affordable to anyone else but millionaires. The building industry in Ireland is stuck firmly in the past and they neither have the skilled labour or infrastructure needed to build high density housing. It simply costs to much to make flats.

Ireland boasts about its modernity - but its all lies.

I agree, but it wont happen with the building industry we have who are incapable of delivering to the required specification at an affordable cost.

Its simply a pipe dream to imagine that it will happen.

hahaha, jesus, these lads truly are mental, sealioning, and wokeism, fcuking hell!

once again, the so called laws of economics such as supply and demand are not actual laws, as they have never been confirmed, by any sort of rigorous processes, similar to scientific laws have been....... they are in fact a myth, i.e. there is no such thing as a market equilibrium, fact!

There are a combination of factors at play in Ireland that have led to the current supply crisis, since the subject is Europe the one thing we all have in common is the European Central Bank and its enablement of magic money theory (MMT) for the past decade. Ireland's 20th century housing boom took off on the back of economic reform following the disastrous inflationary policies of the Irish government, late 60s, & 1970s that led to a grinding recession during the '80s that forced that reform. In '90s Ireland, we have favourable demographics (often coined as the Popes Children), collapse of the communist bloc, a technology revolution in communications and the anticipation of the Euro (people old enough might remember the '92-'93 ERM fiasco, currency pegs don't last!), after that the interest rates came down and stayed down since. After 10 years of the boom there was no shortage of housing supply, in fact during the 2000s we ending up building houses to house the people who came here for the purpose of building said houses. There are other local factors at play in supply especially the consequences of the 1963 planning act, the psychological effect of the Ballymun project on high rise in Ireland, the specification inflation in building standards (you cannot build the house your parents did decades ago), plus the upfront cost of infrastructure services to the building plot and the issue of non functional property management companies, there are other factors if you want to dig.

The actual consequence of cheap credit is the lack of affordable housing or shelter since anyone at the end of the credit chain cannot borrow at the cheap rate the developers do or compete with cash rich international pension funds that have lots of retiring boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) to service and need an 8% yield. This is where ECB MMT comes in to play and clashes with the policies enacted following the bubble burst in Ireland to create the situation we have in Ireland today. Why are German and Israeli funds buying up pre '63 property on Dublins North Circular Road and across the city?

The ECB's low interest rates in the early 2000s facilitated a speculative property bubble in Ireland. A few years in the aftermath of the crash, the Central Bank of Ireland policy changed to set the mortgage rules to keep the price of properties down, once the oversupply of properties from the previous boom had cleared and both prices and rents started to rise again circa 2014/2015. That policy put a price ceiling on domestic buyers and investors and limited their activity in the Irish market.

In 2014, the ECB began its MMT experiment and Mario Draghi introduced negative interest rates and it's asset purchases collapsed the sovereign bond yields (i.e government debt). That left pension funds and insurance companies in trouble, insurance companies responded by raising premiums, and the pension funds who need the yield moved in to property. In 2013 the Irish government introduced Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) as a means to re-float the property market and resolve the banks bad balance sheets resting in NAMA as a consequence of the cheapest bailout ever!

Another consequence of the central bank policy is the increase in rent prices. The policy goal was to limit the prices at which residential properties can be sold, as a consequence dis-incentivising developers from building and by extension reducing the supply of rental accommodation, so prices continue to rise. Now lets throw in rent pressure zones (Introduced in 2016 and expanded since) in the mix, some of the landlords did survive the crash, but were renting at below-market value in 2016 (and were trapped indexing their increases to this below-market rent) - they are now selling out. This is why the foreign funds are buying up the North Circular road. What's the solution? Oh I know, lets tax vacant land, i.e lets add another cost to the business of property development - wonder how that works out . . . . the investment funds buy it up.

Essentially in Ireland and much of the EU we have government and ECB monetary expansion policy conflicting. In the process we are being ground up by a combination of MMT and Irish government using price controls to a point that suppress building below the costs of supplying housing. I don't know the other property markets across the EU, I suspect similar conflict between property price controls and monetary expansion is playing out.

There is a sting in the tail to all this, people who vote in Irish elections are angry, while people who don't vote are buying the property.

What do you think a woke national socialist government is going to do after they have established a grip on power? The first issue Sinn Fein (and their coalition partners) in government will face is bringing the establishment to heel, the Irish establishment has long been at war with them. If they succeed, their power is consolidated, they are going to move on to "nationalise" like Venezuela did.

Ultimately I expect an EU sovereign debt crisis is baked in, timing I can't give you, the EU's Green new gravy train is an attempt to stave it off an EU credit collapse. In the meantime while investment funds can get what seems like "infinite" cheap funds, buy up the NCR, then rehypothecate it. There must ultimately be a collapse, the investment funds probably don't realise that North Circular rent yields drop substantially when a recession hits and they will be forced liquidations, but who will the buyers be?

100%, id argue its been brewing since truly the 90's, but of course thats debatable....