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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭Field east


    And Ru should count it’s lucky stars that the Ukr has not seriously retaliated on a Russian soil. Say, 10 specialist individuals placing 10 + bombs in 10 strategic places and in strategic towns / utility places could send a significant message to Putin proving that nothing and nobody is safe inside the Ru border



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    Putin wouldn't give a toss if this happened.

    In fact, he probably hopes it does happen to justify his invasion.

    Don't be too shocked if it does happen, it just won't be the Ukrainians doing it rather the Russians themselves.



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    Russia hasn't even mobilised conscripts yet. They are rotating their soldiers to and from the frontline which is a luxury Ukraine no longer has. Ukraine has mobilised conscripts which is why the pace has picked up exponentially since the closure of the Zolote cauldron. The people currently being forced to the frontline for Ukraine are untrained and have no desire to die or kill like the hardcore idealist nationalist soldiers who have mostly been caught, killed or injured at this stage.

    Lisichansk fell within days and reports are coming in that Siversk is in the process of being surrounded. I have read that Bakhmut is heavily fortified and defended by a lot of Ukrainian troops and will be easier than Siversk to hold. If Siversk and Bakhmut fall as quickly as Lisichansk then the exponential collapse of the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass will become apparent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I get a bit of a laugh out of Russia using Ukrainian nationalist as a slur ...

    They're pro - the nation of Ukraine, they haven't invaded anyone - they're defending their nation... On they're own nations soil ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Russia hasn't even mobilised conscripts yet.

    So the positive point for Russia is that they haven't yet resorted the the last desperate throw of the dice? Hard a silver lining.

    The point you were replying to wasin relation to the amount of resources Russia has to expend to take these places, which you didn't address. Russia making some advances doesn't really mean a lot to Ukraine, as long as they impose losses on the Russians while minimising their own (likely why it appears easy for Russia to take some places), they are moving towards the eventual collapse of the Russian army.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,683 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ukraine still has more volunteers then they have been able to train and equip so not sure where this "mobilising conscripts" stuff is coming from. Also Russia is sending recently contracted soldiers to the front - the fundamental difference in quality between them and conscripts is negligible.

    Russia's advances have excruciatingly slow. Perhaps that will change in the upcoming weeks (I don't think so, but perhaps), but it doesn't change the reality of what has happened over the last 3 months.

    Also, I think you'll find that when your country is facing existential annihilation, the "hardcore idealist nationalist" demographic has a tendency to swell somewhat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    The US/EU sanctions are not going to be removed (imo) no matter what Russia does here, as long as Putin remains in power. No, Putin and Russia cannot be trusted but I think with a lasting peace in place Ukraine would rearm far quicker than (sanctioned) Russia will rebuild its military strength to launch another attack.

    I've thought (since this began) that Ukraine's national sovereignty, the ability to ally with and obtain weapons they need from who they want + maintain a large army post war is the main thing to secure here, even if the cost of such a peace deal is losing even more territory to Russia.

    The next time out, Russia would likely be facing an EU member (or a country well on the way to it) with a fully modernised & well armed Western military, more like Sweden or Finland's but much larger. In addition there could be some US security guarantee, but I think Ukraine's ability to arm itself may be more important than this. So another invasion of Ukraine will not be just an offensive war fought almost entirely on Russia's terms. Would expect it to be harder to conduct a brazen war of choice like this, even in a dictatorship with information control, if people are likely to experience some of it for themselves without having to sign up for Russia's army.

    That is why I think unfortunately Putin won't want to accept any peace now until he's compelled by the circumstances. He knows it is really the final crack at taking over all of Ukraine and dragging it back to face towards Russia by force. Once the war ends, it's probably just going to be too costly and risky for Russia to try this on Ukraine again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    So the Ukrainians are actually winning by constantly retreating and allowing the Russians to take town after town because they are somehow depleting the Russians resources? You really have to stop reading the Guardian.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,683 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl



    Slow, tactical withdrawals while attritioning enemy forces are so spectacularly common and frequently successful that that snide comment would only make sense if you literally never read any military history ever.

    It may not work, but the anaemic rate of advance and continued loss of men and equipment suggests it is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Ukraine isn't "constantly retreating" and Russia isn't taking town after town, any advances Russia makes are incredibly slow and uses up resources whichRussia will have difficulty replacing. Russia also has to hold any territory gains and if doing so lengthens the front line, they have to spread to avoid leaving themselves exposed.

    And again, any territorial gain can only be considered successful depending on the level of resources used in achieving it. Winning some battles is meaningless if achieving those wins contributes to you ultimately losing the war.

    And no, I never read The Guardian.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,461 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Maybe they have been reading up on the last major war in the region...

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    Anaemic? Compare the map from last Monday to today.

    Fair enough. The winning by losing tactic is definitely new to me. But as I've mentioned a good few times before, this slowly but constantly advancing tactic of the Russians is how they were successful in Syria and is specifically designed to minimize losses.

    Do you mind if I ask where is your evidence that Russia has suffered heavy losses in the battle for Lughansk? Is it from Arestovich and his "Lisichansk was a successful operation" hot take?

    I wonder which operation he now thinks was more successful for the Ukrainians. Mariupol or Lisichansk?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    'Advancing' in a war would normally mean taking five or ten miles of territory a day though. Being bogged down in a slugfest and taking a half a mile or a mile of territory a day does not exactly describe an army that is on top or securing big victories,



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    Its the most heavily fortified area in the Ukraine. It was always going to take ages. The initial breakthrough in Popasna through these fortifications happened a lot earlier than expected. After that bridgehead was established it was over for that line of defence. Even though it took over a month.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,683 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    But as I've mentioned a good few times before, this slowly but constantly advancing tactic of the Russians is how they were successful in Syria and is specifically designed to minimize losses.

    The Syrians weren't using precision long-range artillery to blow up Russian supply depots.

    Also Russia don't care about minimising losses - using their artillery superiority to level towns and force defenders to evacuate is more or less the only way they have demonstrated an ability to advance. They are occupying graveyards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭riddles


    How much of the Ukraine is currently under Russian control and how many soldiers does it take to retain that territory? How difficult is it to retain that space whilst advancing further west?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I have seen some estimates that Russia now controls around 20% of Ukraine and in general once Ukraine loses territory it will be almost impossible for them to take it back. Especially if as I have read. Russia is following the strategy of destroying as many Ukrainian forces as possible in their battles. It would take Ukraine years to recover from this war. And get there military up to a suitable standard and strength if they are to think of retaking territory.

    Hopefully by the time winter arrives, we will see more willingness from Western politicians and Ukrainian officials to come to an agreement to end hostilities which will mean giving over the Dombas region to Russia, possibly some of the coastline as well.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,683 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    This is rather undermined by the fact that Ukraine has been making gains towards Kherson for weeks now. Very much incremental gains, but gains all the same. On top of which, Russia has to maintain control of regions where insurgent activity is likely to ramp up.

    Also if Russia is trying to follow a strategy of "destroying as many Ukrainian forces as possible" they are unremittingly crap at it as they keep allowing the Ukrainians to perform orderly withdrawals.

    Unfortunately though it will indeed take Ukraine years (and decades probably) to recover from this - that is what happens when an aggressor starts levelling your cities and murdering your citizens en masse.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,326 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    And in another ~10 years, should Ukraine then give up even more territory when the Russians come calling, with whatever nonsense excuse they came up with this time for invading? All very Sudetenland.

    Why should Ukraine give over a single kilometre in the first place? What's a little more coastline between friends enemies I suppose? I think it's a little rich & glib putting the onus on "western politicians" to back down here, to show their belly as if they're the ones stoking things. There is only one invader here, and while I don't see what circumstances might persuade Russia to leave a country they have no business being in - nor should the answer be "just give Russia what it wants"



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    Of course they are stoking it. The US runs Ukraine like a puppet state with the weak European leaders blindly following along ensuring their own economic collapse in the process. Zelensky does nothing without Uncle Sam's instructions. Over the last 8 years the US has been vetoing all senior security appointments in the Ukrainian forces in order to pick compliant commanders to do their bidding. The US don't give a damn about the welfare of the Ukrainians.

    The advantages that accrue to the US with arms sales of redundant weaponry and the complete separation of Russian and European business dealings is plain to see. No American soldiers die (apart from a few mercenaries) but Biden et all still get to play the world policeman card. Its a win win. Why wouldn't they want to keep it going? Only young Ukrainian men and women die until their usefulness is no longer required and the Americans do a complete u turn like they did in Afghanistan and all the previous rhetoric just disappears and a new war (Taiwan probably) is established.

    Russia at least have interests in the conflict. The welfare and protection of their ethnic cousins. The US has other reasons for the war.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    I would disagree with all that entirely and completely, and think a lot more would too.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Deep bob deep,

    If only Russia could come up with a plan to short circuit this American scheme - you know , something like going back to Russia - that'd show those sneaky Americans ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,461 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    More lies from the proven liar of such lies as Ukraine violated the Budapest agreement.

    The welfare and protection of their ethnic cousins?

    How many of these ethnic cousins have died as a direct result of Russian actions, war crimes and atrocities in their illegal invasion?

    They didn't come to Ukraine to save anyone, or they wouldn't be indiscriminately flattening cities their ethnic cousins live in.

    Russia have interests in the conflict, the selfish base interests of a gangster fascist dictatorship on a land grab, rape and pillage.

    Russia has proven by act and deed it has absolutely zero regard for the welfare of Ukranians, or they wouldn't have launched an illegal war displacing millions of them and killing thousands of civilians.

    A pack of lies from start to finish.

    Oh and you know what country is run like a puppet state? Fellow fascist gangster dictatorship Belarus. Ukraine is fighting to avoid such a fate. Russia will only permit such corrupt puppets around it and that is what it wants to turn Ukraine back into. The US supports Ukraine as a fledgling democracy to take its eventual place as an equal member of the EU.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,326 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That's a whatabout for what was a direct response to the suggestion Ukraine should yield whatever ground Russian asks for using their Bigger Army Diplomacy. Russia has an interest in the conflict? Well yes, that's certainly one way of putting it. Ethnic Cousins? Is that how we're reframing the "Historical Russia" angle?

    But here we are again, trying to Shades of Grey a scenario that is, in fact, deeply simple if you dispense with the "well, actually, Biden Biden..." deflection. No country has a right to unilaterally invade another. Russia had outlets to help its "Ethnic cousins" but chose - and continues to choose - violence in league with Belarus (I guess Lukashenko is simply a moral man, moved by these cousins' plight when asked by Putin?)

    You know who give a damn about the welfare of Ukranians? Ukranians. And what they're repeatedly saying is: Russia can GTFO. Patronising them that they know not what they're doing WRT to "the West" is tiresome. Abstraction of this core concept is just being dishonest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Seems like some of our fellow posters are intent on putting the sick into sycophancy.

    It is for them a post truth, post morality sphere where they are free to condone naked agression and war crimes with rhetorical moral equivalence.

    Nice to imagine how their line would go down in mother Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    Once again February 24 was not year zero. Before that there was the fall of communism, a state formed with guarantees of neutrality, right wing miltia/US led coups, an 8 year civil war, the discrimination against russian culture in law, the banning of opposition politicians (Yes putin does that as well) and the signing and subsequent Boris Johnson style backing out of an internationally witnessed agreement.

    Naked aggression? None of you ever talk about the 8 year war preceding the 24th February. Thats a real Post Truth and Post morality sphere.



  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    "Is that how we're reframing the "Historical Russia" angle?"

    Its not an angle. They invented the country. Their people make up a large percentage of the population. The name Ukraine basically means "Borderland" in Russian.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,326 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Around and around we go, same old record, same old attempt to obfuscate what is, in reality, a very simple scenario.

    Nobody - nobody - you attempt to presume the thoughts of is naive enough to think Ukraine was some kind of liberal utopia, are more than aware of the various issues predating the invasion - but your constant attempts to abstract a scenario with a very clear aggressor, and equally clear rejection of that aggressor, is noted, predictable and tedious. That you can't even call it an invasion but this "February 24th" nonsense is curious.

    A gross reduction and simplification. But at least you admit you believe Russia has an entitlement towards the nation?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,461 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    More lies.

    The USSR consitution declared that republics, including Ukraine, could leave without conditions. Whatever some state soviet then had to say to leave the USSR is irrelevent, unless you want to admit gangster state Russia didn't even abide by it as the USSRs successor state? It has zero standing as a document recognised or between sovereign countries.

    Russia and Ukraine, as sovereign countries, signed the Budapest agreement. You claimed Ukraine violated this agreement yet were completely unable to explain which clause they violated. I even showed lies from the Russian foreign minister that the Budapest agreement only had 1 clause about nuclear weapons - it did not. Russia agreed to respect the territory of Ukraine including Crimea and Donbas. Russia violated this agreement. To suggest otherwise is a lie.

    Anyone who comes out saying Russia has gone in to protect ethnic Russians when they are victims of Russian war crimes and atrocities and indiscriminate attacks on civilian locations is therefore a denier of war crimes and atrocities.

    You are only here to sow and create the confusion of a post truth world and spreading a bunch of lies to defend Russian atrocities and war crimes and an illegal invasion.

    You are a proven liar and denier of war crimes and atrocities.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭bobowen


    I believe that Russia has a right to protect its people as I believe Ireland had a right to protect its people after Bloody Sunday and the Belfast pogroms. The Russians just have the means to protect their people. We didn't.



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