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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You don't seem to understand if I took that bet and you won it still wouldn't make you right to say you KNOW prices are going to drop. Some of of us are old enough to remember the people who were sure prices would drop every year until it happened and these people all claimed they were right when it did. They were wrong longer than they were right and then they were very wrong about them thinking they could buy once prices dropped. Prices can drop and it could still be more expensive to buy and/or more difficult



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Seeing a few more alerts come in for me. I have alerts set up for properties up to 250k so prices went above this limit a lot in the past couple of years.

    These are the stats on the number of alerts received over the past year and a bit.

    April 2021: 6

    May 2021: 6

    June 2021: 6

    July 2021: 8

    August 2021: 5

    September 2021: 11

    October 2021: 8

    November 2021: 7

    December 2021: 0

    January 2022: 6

    February 2022: 4

    March 2022: 3

    April 2022: 12

    May 2022: 4

    June 2022: 8



  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    Hmm - it's not a very clear trend, I'd say. If you get the monthly average for the first half of this year, and the second half of last year, they're roughly similar, I think..?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Yeah nothing major really. I think Apr-June last year had 18 alerts and this Apr-June had 24



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707




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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Interesting comment about the Swedish house market - apparantly it's been tanking.

    Dude you’re asking advice from people who have no idea about the Swedish housing market. FYI to everyone, Swedish housing market is collapsing because they have an age old system where they essentially never pay off the loan and just pay low interest for 50 years which of course inflates the prices ESPECIALLY when rates are low. No one knows how low those prices will go if this bubble starts to really burst.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Have had 3 alerts for July already in 6 days. Prices are still way too high for what you get though. They'd need to come down at least 12% to make me even think about looking at them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Viscount Aggro


    These people are sitting on a loss of 15K

    Inflation.

    Cash is like holding melting snow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Depends what your cash is for.

    You're right in regards property for the last number of years, as I know only too well, that cash has lost loads of value.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    and almost every commodity which has been subject to huge inflation in recent times (?)



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It is, but the argument for holding it now is that your downside is limited to the amount of inflation. There’s arguably a lot more downside in most other asset classes right now (plus must consider needing liquidity in a turbulent time)



  • Registered Users Posts: 722 ✭✭✭drogon.


    Could have been worst, imagine some sod put 150K on crypto and is probably worse off now. everything has risk attached to it.

    GPU were being sold for crazy markup, right until the crypto crash and guess the market will be flooded with GPUs in the coming weeks and months. I say buy gold bars and bury it 😎



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭SummerK


    Perhaps the reason is that people look at monthly payments and payments look low because of current interest rates and very high tenure of 30+ years. What i am amazed by is some of my friends choose 35+ years of mortgage and i can't imagine myself paying for that long.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    They probably don't plan on using the full term like most other people. As time goes on many people get salary increases and pay off lump sums reducing their terms down. It is very sensible economic planning. I put extra money into my pension and then the tax return off the mortgage. A bit easier to do as self employed but not difficult to work out and apply.



  • Registered Users Posts: 341 ✭✭DFB-D


    Absolutely, shares and Crypto have tanked, and its been a long time coming.

    The US market has been inflated for the last while, it was a question of when rather than if...



  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭ARJn


    I work in software and in my space I can tell that there are lots of people (just in my office) with combined salaries of 150k+ and sitting on 100k+ cash just waiting for anything which is a good deal .Specially immigrants look for new homes and also try to use HTB whenever possible

    consider dublin for example , if you need a 3 bed house in south dublin (new+ HTB enabled) you will have to go to atleast wicklow town at today's prices . Some still take that deal , some just kept renting hoping prices will drop and they maybe able to afford something decent in city or commutable outskirts

    My experience so far has been that older houses in city which usually are available to buy are in very bad conditions and the once that are in better areas or in good turnkey condition still have a bidding war .Also generally the homes that are going for sale in last 2-4 months look more like speculators who believe we have reached the top and tipping point hence in daft today we see 17.5k+ listings



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,345 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Those sort of eaners are few and far between. They wont stop a market falling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 722 ✭✭✭drogon.


    Honestly if you are on €150k+ and have €100k in the bank affordability isn’t an issue.

    The idea that someone with that much salary and saving, waiting on a 10%~20% drop to buy something while paying huge rents doesn’t make sense. Plus people in those categories will always have access to cash and chances of any price drops in high end market will only be at the end.



  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭ARJn


    That's my exact point, affordability is not a problem but even a 150k translates to a max of 600k home. They would not buy a 2 bed apartment in Foxrock for 580k for sure , all these people want 3-4 semi-D at minimum , and for reference a 3bed Semi in Cherrywood village was selling for 675k last week

    Also all first time buyers want to use HTB benefits (saves 30k) on deposit , hence they want to limit their purchase to 500k which makes most of Dublin and commuter towns out of budget , if there is a 10-20 drop these 3Bed/4Bed houses may fall back to HTB level and that is what people are waiting for .Not everyone who has 100k in account wants to use the entire 100k on the house (post purchase cost of a new build is in order of 30k currently)

    There was a launch today in Tinakelly park Rathnew and new houses 4 bed were 495k . They have been priced this because somewhere the Developer knows that people will still buy it for availing HTB even if they have primary jobs in Dublin



  • Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭PSFarrell


    Have been looking for the fast few months and finally saw a house that ticked 90% of the boxs for me and herself last weekend. Put in an offer of asking and looked to arrange second viewing. Got an email that it was already 65k over asking yesterday. Bidding wars on houses in good nick in the D7,D3 and D9 areas have not slowed from what im seeing. Its only places that need tons of work where im noticing some softening.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    I understand the 35 year rationale. You can always choose to pay off earlier if want. The person taking out a 35 year mortgage can also aim to repay within 25 years through just adding monthly overpayment. But the difference is down the road they can take a break if circumstances require it. The person signing up to 25 years from day one must repay over 25 years.

    It also can help borrow more day one as repayments lower. If in morning all mortgages went to max 25 years I would imagine it would have negative impact on house price growth



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,561 ✭✭✭wassie


    The fact that borrowers on 6 figure incomes with a 6 figure deposit are eligible for 'Help to Buy' in the first place is just another example of why successive Govts have a housing crisis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,450 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...cause the aim of the game is continual asset price inflation, cause everyone's a winner!



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭SummerK


    I completely agree that they can pay early but I asked them and they said they did not think about it. Some of them were offered €400k+ mortgage and they got HTB and bought a house for around 450k in Cork just because they were eligible for a higher mortgage and this was in last year when there was some availability in the new build.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tar.Aldarion


    People waiting for a hopeful drop also to try and save 30k while spending 30k on rent and not building equity, all the while the houses won't even fall that far because loads of people are waiting. Speculatory nickel and diming hurting their current living standards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭DonnieCorko


    Pretty much my thoughts. How much will a 250k property come down in a crash over the next few years vs how much I am paying in rent. At worst, its breakeven, at best, I save on my monthly outgoings on rent and build equity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    There are people with less than 50k savings for whom the 30k HTB is the difference between being able to buy or not.

    For these people it's not a case of trying to save the extra 30k, it's that without the 30k they can't buy at all. I personally know a bunch of people who were able to buy in Wicklow with less than 20k deposit, all because of this extra 30k.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,713 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well there can be more factors in play than price tag on the property. A person might not currently be able to afford a house in the area they want to live. They might hope that the difference between buying now and buying in a year might be living where there want to live instead of being stuck 50 miles up the road in a commuter town having bought a house and furnished it and be stuck there for a few years at least



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Well I wouldn't be buying now for the next 6-9 months at least. If you've waited this long you can wait another while to pass through the potential recession.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 722 ✭✭✭drogon.


    But I think the comment was in reply to a guy who was claiming he had friends who were on 150K salaries and had 100K in the bank, hoping prices will drop below 500K so they could avail of the HTB scheme.

    Assuming the person at the moment is renting out a house or an apartment in a decent part of Dublin, paying over €3K~€4K of rent a month and then hoping to save 30K when the price drops is just mental to comprehend.



This discussion has been closed.
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