Russia - threadbanned users in OP

20silkcut · 05-07-2022 7:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291563#Comment_119291563

If Russia is producing more oil then the law of supply and demand will dictate that the price will drop. If they are selling at a discount to India and China then that means India and China aren’t buying it off their usual sources which means more oil available for western countries from those sources. There is no hint of any supply issues in the current price hikes. Of course the current oil price has as much to do with the low prices over the last 2 years and making up that lost ground.

I know of several large companies who bought 5 years worth of Diesel on future exchanges/ in bulk when the price was 1.30 per litre 2 years ago. That loss to oil corporations has to be paid for. That means ordinary customers like ourselves must pay for it. That’s what we are doing now.

Homelander · 05-07-2022 8:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291587#Comment_119291587

Is that a joke? Russia has displayed stunning ineptitude from the start and shown up their armed forces as a hopelessly obsolete brute-power force.

They had similar problems against the tiny Georgian army in 2008 as well. Horrible logistics and combined arms operations, incredibly poor air force relative to its size and paper strength.

Supposed to have been massive reform since 2008 and increased spending but whole structure rotten to the very core with corruption.

It's every bit as weak as it looks. Whatever about the economy, not even the most ardent of trolls could keep a straight face whilst trying to imply that this whole campaign is anything other than a monumental embarrassment to Russia.

Realistically, if the Russia armed forces were as strong as it should be based on spending, it should have flattened Ukraine conventionally in two weeks, without or without western weapons. It's military budget is about 20x bigger.

The air force is a joke and ground forces barely better. Instead we now have a WW2 style attrition conflict where Russia is just blasting Ukrainian cities and towns to dust with artillery because it cannot gain superiority in the air or in conventional fighting.

roosterman71 · 05-07-2022 8:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291641#Comment_119291641

700 Million Euros heading Russias way today, 500 from the EU and 200 from China

You keep going on about this. And I think you seem to forget that they were getting that before the war too, if not more (I don't know the numbers). And out of that money they still need to do everything they were doing that's needed to run the country (wages, welfare, police, medical, etc, etc) and now on top they have to pay for a stupid war. Plus they can't spend the money they get on anything they usually would by way of imports.

is_that_so · 05-07-2022 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291641#Comment_119291641

Nope folks time to wake up, our Western leaders have led us down another dead end, the only people in the west suffering are the ordinary man/woman/non-binary/... in the street having to pay thru the nose for ordinary day to day living expenses.

The sanctions were badly thought thru and have backfired catastrophically. Winter will expose the cracks in the mis-guided policy.

Hmm. On the one hand there's all this condescending lecturing of other posters, mostly and bizarrely with the help of the FT, and then there is this persistent and incoherent rambling about the West. The backfiring seems to inside your head. Potential issues have been anticipated and work is ongoing to address them.

timmyntc · 05-07-2022 9:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119290365#Comment_119290365

People who think objectively and with conscience are immune to it.

conscience is subjective - people who think objectively about the situation do not engage in appeals to emotion at all. Very few posters think about this subject objectively since so many use appeals to emotion about evil russians bombing innocents etc etc.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289976#Comment_119289976

Ukraine is set up for modern warfare and Russia is basically doing it WW2 style.

Interesting - is there any sources to give further reading on why this is? Surely if Ukraine were set up for "modern warfare" they would not be taking the same losses they are currently

Wibbs · 05-07-2022 9:18am

I see the day shift has started...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291625#Comment_119291625

Yet it's amazing how the "west" based and grew their economies and outpaced Mother Russia without all that during Soviet times. Well except for occasions like when the Yanks needed titanium for their SR-71 Blackbird spy plane. They set up shell companies to buy up the stuff from Mother Russia to build a plane that would spy on Mother Russia.

"We" can get all that stuff from other sources and do and always have done. Oh some of it will cost more in the short term that's for sure, but when needs must. However I guess "you won't be using" anything modern technology based today? Oh wait, you already are and Mother Russia can't make that stuff you're typing all this out on. The same stuff Mother Russia has become dependent on for digging up, refining and distributing all that stuff it sells and other than living off the land and crapping in an outhouse rural type, every single Russian uses every single day. Ireland, this little piss ant damp spot in the Atlantic can, but mighty Mother Russia can't and is many years away from being able to.

Oh China will help!! Not with majority Western licenced technology and by far and away their biggest markets they won't. Oh they'll buy your oil a knockdown prices and look to leverage the Americans to lower the trade sanctions trump brought in while smiling at you, but that's about it. India will do what it has done for decades and during the Cold War, walk on both sides of the fence when it suits.

wassie · 05-07-2022 9:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291810#Comment_119291810

And out of that money they still need to do everything they were doing that's needed to run the country (wages, welfare, police, medical, etc, etc) and now on top they have to pay for a stupid war.

....oh and don't forget the 'small cost' of siphoning off state wealth directly into the pockets of Putin & Co.

Cant afford for the cronies to have to drop their standard of living now at the expense of the peasants.

ZenNature · 05-07-2022 9:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291716#Comment_119291716

" The air force is a joke and ground forces barely better "

Ukraine forces have left the Luhansk region.

Russia has control over 20% of Ukrainian territory.

It would be funny if it were not such a serious matter that people still call Russian forces a joke.

I really think the question that people should be asking themselves is, is the Russian army and economy as weak as they think. Its too serious a matter to under-estimate your opponent.

Id suggest people face reality and dont under-estimate Russian might , maybe then we could defeat it and reach a resolution.

The strategy here seems to be calling their armed forces a joke and their soldiers clowns.. hows that strategy working out ?

The clowns and jokers (posters here words not mine) have taken all the major cities in Luhansk, with Donetsk soon to follow .

That most be embarassing to be losing ground to jokers and clowns.

Homelander · 05-07-2022 9:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291894#Comment_119291894

Hard to take these at face value.

You seriously want evidence Ukraine is better equipped for 21st century warfare than the fact it's inflicted staggering losses on a foe that has an armed forces and power projection (at least on paper) about 15x bigger.

Russia spends about $70bn on military every year. Ukraine about $5bn...and until recently they only spent about a $1bn.

The fact Russia a) completely failed to flatten them in the first two weeks b) has shown stunning ineptitude in logistics and combined arms c) it's air force is almost non existent and radically ineffective and d) has resorted to WW2 style indiscriminate bombardment should tell you all you need to know about how well the Russia army is equipped for true modern warfare.

Wibbs · 05-07-2022 9:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291810#Comment_119291810

Exactamundo. Their "strong" Rouble shows this. They're still earning about the same as before from exports, but can't spend it on imports, so the Rouble goes up. So on the one hand their supporters point to this "strong" Rouble as evidence sanctions aren't hurting, yet their own government brought in three interest rate cuts in as many months(after first raising interest rates to try and control a run on banks and other capital flight) to try to make it less "strong" because sanctions are hurting. Russian spin on this is akin to a fight where someone gets punched in the face and shouts "I hurt your hand". I'm sure it did mate, but your face hurts a lot more. A sure sign spin is being spun about something they don't like is when the one doing the spinning never shuts up about it.

Wibbs · 05-07-2022 9:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291894#Comment_119291894

Oh sure, but Ukraine were massively outgunned on paper and in reality, yet they're losing at a much slower rate than expected. Russia failed to take Kyiv and threw most of the kitchen sink at it in the attempt. Of course now they're trying to spin that as a tactic... They had and have far more of an advantage in the East, closer to supply lines, no need for tens of kilometers long of trucks, more local support, advisors already in theatre, a civil war going on for nearly a decade etc. And even with all that it's been a very slow slog. How long did they need to take Mariupol? Never mind against what they claim is a minority of "nazis" in those regions.

ZenNature · 05-07-2022 9:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291920#Comment_119291920

and here he is, he is back, they guy who says we are winning the economic war with Russia .

BanfOfAmerica released a research note last week saying World bond markets havent had a worst time since the mid 1800s !

Stocks, bonds are on track for their worst year since post-Civil War, commodities best since WWII.

S&P 500 its worst 6 months since 1970.

The US 10 Year Treasury had its worst first half of the year since 1788 .. yes folks not since George Washington has the 10-year had a worst 6 months .

COMMODITIES ON TRACK FOR BEST YEAR SINCE WWII . I wonder who deals in alot of commodities, RUSSIA , sure to reap a rich financial harvest (pun intended) from that. . Although some posters here refer to it as "Russia digs some sht out of the ground "

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3853581-stocks-bonds-on-track-for-worst-year-since-post-civil-war-commodities-best-since-post-wwii

So yer man here thinks that among other things if you ignore the bond market is at its worst since the time of George Washington, the west is winning the economic war..

So folks crack open the cans of peaches, book the holiday, fill up the car, pick up some lattes and party on, the west is winning the economic war.

People should deal in reality , dont be listening to people with their head in the sand ignoring whats actually happening , they are both clueless and dangerous.

timmyntc · 05-07-2022 9:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291968#Comment_119291968

Poster claimed that due to being a 21st century army that Ukraine will have no problem attacking and regaining territory in the coming winter - Russia's own incompetence and corruption in the armed forces thus far can explain most of their own failings, but the idea that Ukrainians are a superior 21st century military yet they continue to lose ground - but when winter comes around they will easily push back despite the problems of wet ground and poor weather conditions for drones?

Theres a bit of cognitive dissonance going on here, hopeful optimism that the Ukrainians are just sitting idly by and holding it all in reserve until winter when they push Russia back out of their country. It would be nice, but its not realistic. The Ukrainian military is just as mechanised as the Russians, reliant on tanks and BMPs and heavy AA and artillery. Even with longer range NATO artillery pieces they will still face the same weather based issues as the Russians would have early on, limiting potential avenues of attack primarily to roads unless theyve decided to enlist tractors as part of the armed forces.

zv2 · 05-07-2022 9:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291369#Comment_119291369

You're right I thought it was an impact.

wassie · 05-07-2022 9:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292025#Comment_119292025

I wonder who ~~deals~~ steals in alot of commodities, RUSSIA , sure to reap a rich financial harvest (pun intended) from that. .

Fixed that for you!

https://www.bbc.com/news/61790625

Furze99 · 05-07-2022 10:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292025#Comment_119292025

Well all I can say is that I prefer Wibbs analysis compared to your RT garbage. Of course, the 'West' is taking a hit but one worth soaking up a bit of pain for.

05-07-2022 10:03am

Military experts (actual experts) i have listened to on the radio are dismissive of the ability of Ukraine to push Russia back from territory they have lost, even if they did get more weapons. The overwhelming prognosis is a stalemate, once Russia have taken the Donbas and dug in, and years of skirmishes and shelling (even if there is a deal to give up the Donbas in return for security guarantees and a formal NATO defence pact with what remains of Ukraine, the view from the actual experts is that that won’t stop long term fighting in the east, both sides accusing the other of breaking ceasefires)

mesnwhile the rest of Ukraine dusts itself off and rebuilds, while Russia goes down the toilet

ZenNature · 05-07-2022 10:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291810#Comment_119291810

I dont think you really making any great insight there, yeah Russia takes in revenue and uses it to pay their public sector.

Thats kind of how every nation is meant to do it.

Russia's debt ratio is one of the lowest in the world at 19.48% of its GDP. Russia is the ninth least indebted country in the world.

Irelands is closer to 60%. The ratio is a number oft times debated, but its clear Rusisa is one of the least indebted countries in the world. The Financial Times didnt call their Central Bank Govenor the best central banker in the world for nothing.

Western financial media (you can take their reports however you want) reports that Russia was in budget surplus territory in recent quarters .

So yeah they have a war to pay for, they had one of the lowest debt ratios in the world, are in budget surplus and we, the EU, are sending them 500 million a day (in the summer, any thoughts what it might be by winter), and they will use that money we send them to pay for wages and warfare.

I guess your in the camp we are winning the economic war, free country go for it. To my mind its at best wishful thinking at worst its pure ignorance.

Im in the camp everyone I know in Ireland is complaining of the cost of living, and Russia has the lowest debt ratio in the world, and we send them 500 million a day , and major countries are still trading with them, and they have pivoted East and been welcomed and they are gaining ground in Ukraine and winter is coming ... you get the picture that REALITY is painting.

oh hang on I hear a chorus of but down the line x y and z will happen, the same chorus that said their troops were useless and their economy would crash right before they took 20% of Ukraine and are making more money than ever before.

Reality folks, check it out its cool and liberating once you embrace it, and it helps to get problems solved.

zv2 · 05-07-2022 10:06am

The problem with Russia was overconfidence. They thought they'd just walk in, take out some key targets and clean up. Then they got a Javelin between the eyes. Then they thought 'what now?' let's Groznify the place. But that's going at a snail's pace. I don't think gaining land is such a big deal. If Ukr. gets what it needs it can take back the south coast, with a huge price for Russia to pay. And Putin is not going to be in power for long by the looks of it. Whoever gets in power next would be wise to take the offramp: Well that previous guy was an idiot, let's calm down and fix his mess.

ZenNature · 05-07-2022 10:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292083#Comment_119292083

Are you a Russian pro-putin bot, your not allowed to point out that Russia has gained some military strategic wins around here. Posters tend to be very sensitive to pointing out facts and truth, they think all facts that dont make them jump for joy are dis-information.

I dont think NATO expands into Ukraine, they will kick it down the can. And I dont think Russia will go down the toilet either. The world and more importantly the EAST will be happy to trade with them for the basic raw materials of life on this planet. If a settlement is reached then the west will resume normal service trading commodities with Russia, we need their stuff too much to walk away from it. Their will be a lot of political posturing and statements but with trillions in resources lying in the grounds of Russia , the west money men will soon make deals. But I could be wrong on that all based on a settlement being reached soon and all based on Putin or someone like him staying in power.

Wibbs · 05-07-2022 10:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292025#Comment_119292025

Avoid my points like the plague because they're not in Mother Russia's handbook of how to deal with decadent western pigdogs talking sense. So you continue to deflect and get ever more frustrated. About par for the course Ted.

The "S&P 500 its worst 6 months since 1970", yep and it was going down before Mother Russia went on a landgrab. A goodly chunk of it to do with on over buy on tech stocks that was in dire need of market adjustment.

"Stocks, bonds are on track for their worst year since post-Civil War" yep and that was happening before Mother Russia went on a landgrab too.

You seem to have forgotten a world wide pandemic that blew up some parts of the market and depressed others. Meanwhile in Mother Russia and seeing as you like FT linkehs...

https://markets.ft.com/data/world/countries/russia

Going down like a three Rouble hooker. Including oil and gas. Inflation in double figures and closer to 20% than 10%. Imports decimated, locked out of the majority of money markets, foreign asset reserves unavailable, paper default on debts, though they can't even access international borrowing anyway, and so on. If the "West" has a migraine, Mother Russia has a brain tumour.

nigeldaniel · 05-07-2022 10:29am

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/04/asia/uzbekistan-violence-protests-karakalpakstan-intl-hnk/index.html

This kind of thing is on the increase throughout former Soviet bloc countries in the est. One wonders what is really going on.

ZenNature · 05-07-2022 10:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292164#Comment_119292164

yeah but Im not claiming that Russia is WINNING the economic war, my position is more that Russia isnt losing it or at least isnt losing it as badly as some might have you believe and that they are compensating for much of these losses by turning east and they have new increased trading partners to boot. .

Your the one claiming the west is winning, and so far you haven't been able too .

Theres a reason Russia is the home of Chess, they understand the value of a draw, reaching a point where you dont win but dont lose either and go on to fight the next contest.

Ive let the sibilings know that some people like yourself on boards think we are winning the economic war. They asked if you could pay for their increased expenses given you have the insight on how we are winning. Seems fair to me, PM me so I can send a bill for increased school expenses . one of them has to commute quite far into the city for work, would you be willing to help out with that, given your saying we are winning.

Thats mad, not since Geroge Washington over 200 years ago, has the 10 year performed so bad, and theres loolahs out there saying the west is winning .

zv2 · 05-07-2022 10:31am

Mad stuff

https://twitter.com/Pegasus15056622/status/1544245963623211010?s=20&t=SUiCROpNEhaC3xfyWesSCQ

You can see the flash, above the target, just before impact. SMArt 155 - Wikipedia

Rawr · 05-07-2022 10:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292083#Comment_119292083

It's a frustrating but likely situation for the medium / long term here. You kind of wish to be able to call out "It'll be done by Christmas!", which all history-fans know is a phrase that is just asking for trouble. Likely we're seeing a situation where Ukraine is arming to secure what's left of itself from an increasingly desperate (near feral) Russian attack.

I'd like to see them keep pushing at Kherson and get most of the south coast back. If anything to help secure safe passage for the grain. Cutting off the land-bridge to Crimea would be a great, but I feel the Russians could dig in here too, since the Dniper makes a great natural barrier down there.

But I think this is going to take years, unless there's kind of spectacular collapse within Russia in the next year or so, or some kind full Nato advance. I really hope for Ukraine to win back all of their territory and end this sooner, but I also fear that it will probably take a while.

zv2 · 05-07-2022 10:54am

Opinion | Ukraine Is the Latest Neocon Disaster | Jeffrey D. Sachs (commondreams.org) BUT, without America, we'd all be speaking Russian now.

Wibbs · 05-07-2022 11:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292219#Comment_119292219

Still avoiding my numerous points though. Not great evidence of "winning" on your part for Mother Russia's. Yes our inflation is up just under 10%, Mother Russia's is up just under 20%. Compare and contrast. As you like caps so much DOUBLE! and as I pointed out Mother Russia can't even produce the simple chip that drives the keyboard you're furiously typing on. Mother Russia's stock market is on the floor, imports have fallen off a cliff, foreign investment has fallen off the same cliff and into a hole at the bottom of it. Their selling thier oil with large discounts and it costs more for them to ship it. Their aerospace industry is on the floor, even your best pals China have closed their airspace to the Russian airbus/boeing fleet. Which BTW is an early sure sign where China's market loyalties actually lay and for good economic reasons. They've defaulted on their debt and can't access international financing, leasing insurance and shipping anyway, which are by far their bigger problems. If these are examples of Russia playing chess, may I respectfully suggest starting with checkers and working your way up?

Here in Ireland schools out for summer as the song goes and the "city" isn't big enough to commute far into. Maybe you're thinking of Moscow? I think your "siblings" have more on their plate.

dennis72 · 05-07-2022 11:04am

Russia has what the world needs and was always going to weaponize it at some point while building up an invasion force on its neighbour border

No one saw it coming ok Trump said it

Bloomberg quoting sources saying Russia will switch off gas to Europe this winter

Wibbs · 05-07-2022 11:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292384#Comment_119292384

It's one of their few sticks to wave around and worry their "enemies". Though given - and as their Russian web brigades remind us - "we're paying them to wage war while fighting them!" I suspect it's a stick they're not too keen to wave too strongly or bring down any time soon. They might if they get desperate, but if they think their isolation is a big deal now, it would isolate them even more so and for far longer.

timmyntc · 05-07-2022 11:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292270#Comment_119292270

Likely see a ceasefire and deescalation of the conflict coming up to winter for the simple fact that Europe cannot live without Russian hydrocarbons, and as the shortages really start to bite, what support they were giving to Ukraine will diminish quite quickly, and be replaced by pressure to negotiate with Putin.

The current energy crisis has the potential to destabilise the entire EU - with certain eurozone countries seeing double digit inflation already there is huge pressure on ECB to increase rates, but with heavily indebted members like Italy and Greece and Spain (and ourselves) there will be considerable pushback and risk to rate rises also. Its a no-win scenario for the eurozone, and several leaders would do anything to go back to the 2019 situation of low inflation low/negative rates. Without cheap energy that cannot happen - so the question is will the eurozone sacrifice PIIGS (with rate rises) east and southern europe (inflation) or Ukraine (pushing for a peace deal which sees them lose territory).

If theres no military result by christmas, then I know what I'd put my money on

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Comments