FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Generally the same as what the charts were looking like yesterday except maybe a touch warmer from next weekend. The high will move in sometime between Monday and Wednesday with temperatures slowly rising to high teens and low twenties. From Friday onwards mid to high twenties look likely and this lasts untill the 11th or the 12th of July before much cooler weather takes over from the Atlantic. This is based on the current GFS 12z which is still rolling out. Somewhere between 4 and 6 days of warm to very warm weather with locally hot conditions by next Sunday/Monday before the breakdown.

GEM is still cooler than the GFS but alot better than recent GEM runs with low to mid twenties possible by next weekend. The GEM still looks a bit on the cooler side for the north-west with the core of high temperatures in the southern half of the country.

UKMO looks good and in line with the GFS up to next Wednesday which is still the early stages of this high pressure. Can't see further than that till tomorrow.

This mornings ECM run also in line with the GFS and temperatures lifting up properly by next weekend. This may not be as hot as last July's heatwave but wouldn't be far off it if the GFS verifies in it's current form.

Still plenty of time left for more upgrades or the dreaded downgrades. This is still a week away from beginning so will be keeping an eye on the models throughout the next few days but for now the cross model agreement is fairly decent.

That's a France 2003 special right there. Of course this will be nowhere to be seen on the next run but it is fun to see these crazy charts and this is what make FI the home of broken dreams.

2 Days ago when the GFS first showed high twenties for Ireland next weekend, I said it will be gone on the next run. We've had about 8 GFS runs since and the high twenties are still there! GFS has been very consistant with the high pressure warmth potential over the past 48 hours.

I mentioned a few times that the ECM extended is showing some very warm anomalies for second half of July and into the first 2 weeks of August. CFS models also going for a very warm second half of July. Now we have extreme heat making it's way into the end of the short term models. None of this may verify but there is certaintly some evidence now that summer is about to step it up by several gears, after a very cool June north of the English Channel.

Northern Spain and the north-western half of Portugal is finally going to get it's summer back too after 2 weeks of Irish style bad summer temperatures.

Very interesting model watching ahead.

The GFS 00z was another crazy hot one with 30C over Leinster at times and a 41C for London before the breakdown. The current GFS 6z seems much more sensible and delays the warmth for next week with the high pressure only starting to make a move by Wednesday. It won't be until Thursday and into Friday before the high set's up over us and temperatures generally low to mid twenties next weekend and a breakdown on 14th July.

The ECM ridges the high over us a bit earlier, around the Tuesday into the Wednesday. The ECM keeps trending warmer too and many of it's ensembles want to bring at least a week long warm spell which includes some days getting into the high 20s.

If that control run ends up verifying be prepared for a very warm to hot second week of July.

Everything still on track for next week and weekend. What happens after Monday 11th is still a big question. This mornings GFS is backtracking on it turning cooler and fresher after the 11th with an increase in model runs becoming even warmer towards the middle of July. We may have a temporary 2 day period where things try to cool down from the north before temperatures take off again and possibly a reload of heat.

I hope the 12z continues to increase the chances of heat from the 11th July onwards. ECM is very similar, basically going for at least a week of warm to very warm weather and no real signs of a proper cool down at the end either. By the time I next look at the models the pub run will already be rolling out so will check back on things later tonight.

This mornings GFS 6z is similar to the pub run from last night but changes the position of the high pressure to allow cooler winds from the north-west to topple over the high into next week so gone are the high temperatures. However this GFS run keeps us generally under high pressure for a much longer period and it does get properly warm eventually, but the real warmth has been pushed out by another 4 or 5 days instead of having it starting Monday 11th.

High pressure sets up this weekend.

On this GFS run the high does not centre over us, it stays to our south and we stay on the cool side of the high with winds in from the west or north-west. This turns parts of the north-west fairly wet on the Monday and temperatures overall reduce nationwide to the 17 to 20C range instead of the high twenties which the GFS seems to have completely dropped.

This is a fairly signifcant change for Monday the 11th of July compared to any of the models I've looked at over the past week. As this is a new turn of events from the GFS i'm not sold on how cool and unsettled these charts are showing.

Tuesday 12th is another average day with temperatures generally 16 to 20C but much cooler across the north-west and west with north-westerlie winds around that high.

Wednesday 13th see's the high re-establishing itself over Ireland and it is only from this point that we start to see low to mid twenties across Ireland.

By the weekend of the 16/17 July mid twenties across the country with a few places possibly seeing high twenties.

Tuesday 19th of July sees the breakdown to much cooler Atlantic conditions.

If you like high temperatures, looks like we will need a little more patience to finally get there. I'm a bit surprised by the blip Monday/Tuesday 11/12th July but it seems the ECM is doing this too.

ECM isn't looking great for next week with a good deal of support to end the warm weather around Sunday 10th of July, keeps that jetsteam far too close for comfort with the high too far south to tap into any real warmth.

An update on the extended range forecast covering the next 16 days or so.

Up to Sunday 10th July:

I have covered this section on the up to 120 hour thread but basically high pressure becoming established over the country with sunshine becoming more widespread. Cloud will vary from place to place and this will play a part in where see's the highest temperatures. Temperatures generally 19 to 24C, warmest from Friday to Sunday. The north-west will be cooler and more cloudy up to Friday but it does look like the good weather will eventually get there by the weekend with temperatures 14 to 19C up to Friday and 16 to 22C over the weekend.

Monday 11th to Sunday 17th:

Next week is looking warm to very warm right across the country with all areas enjoying some very warm and sunny weather. There is still some uncertainty with how warm it could get but generally temperatures between 22 and 28C can be expected this week with a few locations possibly getting up to 30 or 31C under extended spells of sunshine with minimal sea breeze influences. I'm thinking either Shannon or Mt Dillion would be the official stations that might reach 30C once conditons are perfect as long as the models to continue to verify about next weeks warmth.

There are currently several GFS hot outliers going for hotter conditions than what I'm suggesting where low 30s would be widespread but these runs are too extreme for me to take them seriously.

The models also suggest little to no rain over the coming 12 days with a possible breakdown beginning sometime between the 15th to 18th of July. As of this morning this spell of warm to hot weather is shaping up to be similar to the very warm spell we had last July, however the models are still getting to grips with next week's potential so expect anything from not as intense as July 2021 to more intense or somewhere in between! Either way this is shaping up to be a very warm July and the first half at least very dry.

Currently the GFS is showing between 2 and 5mm of rain over the next 16 days with some higher totals across the east and south at the very end of this period, but these rainfall totals are relying on thunderstorm activity during the breakdown stages of the high temperatures so there is a fair chance many areas could escape without any rainfall until the 3rd week of July.

There is a chance that this breakdown could be temporary and it's possible there could be a reload of very warm weather during the final week of July. The long range models are starting to suggest that August could be fairly poor and Atlantic driven so make the most of the lovely weather over the next 10 to 14 days, especially after the poor June and dissapointing first few days of July.

Big change on the GFS 12z. The high pressure breaks down from Monday and we go back into a cooler north-westerly Atlantic driven flow and no heat at all next week! Think the GFS might be having a fairly major model wobble. Could be a cool outlier will have to wait and see when the set of runs complete.

We will probably need a few more days to see are we in for a cool Atlantic driven week or will we maintain the high pressure and possibly pull up some very warm south-easterlies for a time. Could this be like the run up to the great bust of Christmas 2021 all over again!

GEM 12z keeps the heat throughout next week.

A possible warm to very warm spike for next Friday and Saturday. Will need to be watched. For the Uk this could be excessive heat but for us it should be something much more manageable, around 23 to 26C possible over the Friday and Saturday.

Those temperatures look on the low side considering we have close to +20 uppers across the country but perhaps the briefness of it all limits the temperature potential. Still looks like next weekend will be fairly warm to very warm after a cooler interlude from Tuesday to Thursday next week.