Ireland - lack of air and naval defence.

I’m posting the tweet as it saves typing it out and gives the source simultaneously.

We will know very soon if they’re going for it or not. If they do there has been a huge U turn. That can only have been brought about by massive external pressure. The price for the Protocol and Biden hanging tough with the UK?

I have no faith in MM. He is at heart a naive pacifist and close to Home Rule/unionism and his experiences in Ukraine will only reinforce his belief that all fighting is wrong and surrender is the best policy. He will say different of course but I think he has been told by Eastern European states and others that Ireland must do more. The danger is that the more will be focussed on “peace building” and support roles (look at the PESCO tasks today) so that he can claim we’re implementing a LOA2 but gain damn all in capacity for air or naval Defence. That leaves the way open for an alliance and the continued dependency on the UK in particular. Alliances are needed. But the EU should come first.

The direction of Ireland in the 21st century in IR and Defence will be set next week. I’m leaning toward a version of the above as most likely and fundamentally a fudge.

True. December officially. The problem is commitments to spending will have been entered into by him which constrain what can be done elsewhere.

The deeper problem (I mentioned the DPER problem elsewhere) is what is the underlying vision about the country. Will MM going change much in FF at this stage? Only if there is a strong vision of an independent state within the EU will there be a strong financial commitment to Defence spending. People are forgetting that the DF are the way they are because of the political parties who are now looking at spending more. My belief and I hope I am wrong is a cleverly designed plan to remediate, to increase spending in areas that guarantee a toothless contribution to EU Defence, to increase spending to ensure peace keeping missions for access to UNSC and to enable claims of achieving option 2 (LoA2 in report). Defence has been a soft target for having its budget looted. Politicians will find that a hard habit to break. I hope I am wrong.

I’m leaving this thread now as I don’t see much point and the fundamentals need spelling out.

No major political party is committed to the state as it is and consequently Defence will continue to suffer as there will be no underlying vision.

That vision will not be possible until two things happen. First, the Protocol issue is settled either with a UK re-entry to single market, a land border, an away from border border or Ireland accepting a sea border between it and the EU. How long is a piece of string?

Second, until a border poll is held and won or lost there will be no vision possible for the 26 county state. The chances of such being held let alone won, (the Protocol is actually strengthening the union as NI has dual access) in the foreseeable are nil given that Scotland is agitating for another referendum and no Tory PM will preside over the break up of the UK.

Which brings me back to the lack of commitment to the state. During 2021-25 the govt has committed to ringfenced spending of €500 million on the shared island initiative. All of which is supposedly about integrating an all island economy and society while two distinct jurisdictions exist. Quite simply Irish politics continues to kick the can down the road and refuses to face BREXIT realities.

The vision at the moment seems to be to denigrate those who fought and won independence while turning a blind eye to the terrorism that founded NI and to seek to ingratiate with unionism. The Chair of the Defence committee is on the record as saying RIC were “murdered” in the war of independence. So given that what is the vision? It’s clear that the current govt seeks a closer integration with the UK while maintaining EU membership. From all this I believe the vision is to be a Defence dependent of the UK, to apply the GFA to the entire country if reunited as a “shared state” (FFG has floated the idea of unionists permanently in cabinet) and Protocolise the island and retain full EU membership and the status of an independent state at the UN. In short, cakeism.

The DF will remain as an international peace keeping earner of political brownie points, emergency labour, parade theatre for political spin, and supported just enough to avoid political liabilities.

I hope I’m wrong and I await Cathal Berry’s analysis of what comes forward but right now if it walks like a duck etc etc.

Edit: The one possibility of a border poll is that if the Tories realise they will win it and use it to undermine Scottish independence.