Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I don't think many posters read that article in full. Increased costs were fully offset by efficiencies elsewhere with margin now over 20%

one could suggest that "more choice" is a kin to either less demand or with the current increase in small landlords selling ... more supply in the market .... more supply with a recession on the cards has to have some impact on price ..

It has to start somewhere. The more savvy EA's will start by getting sellers to be "more realistic". I am noticing now some re-listings on myhome at reduced prices so they are not coming up in the price changes searches.

In the US it took a number of months from mtge rates to go up to a noticeable shift there. In many areas there inventory is up considerably YoY but it is only in the past couple of weeks widespread news of more realism by sellers is seeping out.

Around the same time period interest rates have been falling, multiple other factors also such as grants and shared equity, tax free investment funds et al, but I'm pretty sure the funders of such schemes will also be affected by rising rates

Not really though, the government/SHBs are still buying up full estates off the books and will keep doing so for the foreseeable future and they don't care about prices so that's one big source of demand.

All I see on the private new build market is new houses getting smaller and smaller to stay within what is affordable for people so 350k might have bought you a 4 bed semi a year ago now only buys you a 3 bed semi.

Your points on Ukraine are nonsense. Grabbed from somewhere with zero understanding of Ukraine, its war, and internal relations with russians.

In addition, its been shown numerous times, that contrary to major belief, one of the better hedges against inflation is cash.

Secondhand houses will stop that from happening though - why pay 350k for a 3bed when there are 2ndhand 4beds for that price. You get away with a certain price difference for the new nature of a house, but when it gets smaller and smaller eventually the demand drops off entirely.

That’s thanks to the inverted yield curve which normally is a sign of recession

That is an interesting take, one that I find hard to believe. Do you mean physical notes, or cash on deposit? If the price of goods and services are increasing, the value of both would appear to go down rather than up as both buy you less than they did when goods and services were less expensive. I could understand it if you said Gold was one of the better hedges as traditionally people invested cash in gold at times of economic instability. But cash? Hard to see how that stacks up unless you are talking about the grey economy where paying/being paid in cash avoids taxation.

Sean, are you planning on posting loads of adverts for houses for sale and then commenting on each one? Another poster used to fill pages with their posts like that and it’s not at all interesting unless you are planning to buy one. It just means they were overpriced to start with and the owner has either realised it, or is dropping to generate a bit of interest. Hardly a sign that a crash is nigh.

Oh, and it hasn’t been 16 yrs of continuous property price inflation since 2006.

Euro falling towards parity pain point (Rte)

The euro has lost 10% compared to the dollar this year and at $1.0238 is close to the psychologically crucial parity point it last saw in mid-2002, when it was just three years old.

However, Nomura said that $0.95 was not that important historically, noting that the euro fell from $1.17 after its creation to $0.82 in October 2002.

Extrapolating backwards using its legacy currencies, the euro traded as weak as $0.6444 in February 1985, they added.

Economists expect the euro area to slip into recession faster than rivals. Nomura expects the euro economy to fall into recession by the third quarter with a total decline in GDP of 1.7%.

difficult decisions ahead for the ECB they need to raise interest rates (substantially) to combat inflation and falling currency but at the same time dont want to aggravate the coming recession or spark another debt crisis in Greece, Spain,Italy,Portugal, Ireland ..

just a sign of serious tight rope walking going on across many global economies ..

make one nervous buying houses at the moment

An example of what quantitative easing achieved. I recall Tottenham hotspur's Daniel Levy getting one of those loans during the pandemic

Happy days the extreme wealthy can make a killing, while we all pick up the tab through inflation

Nice bit of business from the developer here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/07/02/german-investor-pays-42m-for-malahide-road-apartments/

get the state out of desperation to lock into a 25 year lease (likely inflation linked) and tick a box on the social housing provision which makes it likely to be ESG compliant and bang, flip it to the Germans for a chunk of change. With the state underwriting asset values like this from general taxation and acting as dumb money it's hard to see a fall in prices.

I personally don't see this having any major positive effect on the property market and definitely won't be the game changer the political parties (especially the opposition) make it out to be, more a political soundbite to say they did it.