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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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    #1142
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The French government is a majority shareholder in EDF. However the government at the start of the year they imposed a max 4% price cap on energy bills.That is why France's inflation rate is so low.

    So since then the company / government has been funding the excess. Also half of the nuclear power plants are shut due to technical problems due to under funding over the years.

    No idea how it works with state aid rules but the company has been bust for months now.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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    #1143
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119299556#Comment_119299556

    So you reckon 50% drop in property prices?



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    #1144
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300027#Comment_119300027

    Let's look to the basics and points from were Irish growth came from.Please don't forget that Ireland was one of the poorest countries in Europe before.

    The main drivers of the Irish economy is multinational,cheap experienced and qualified labour from Eastern Europe and investment from abroad .

    The only source Ireland can offer to the world is island and stones .

    Taxes and qualified labour from Eastern Europe brought investment to Ireland.Whole country been built from EU and US money.

    Country got to expensive to live and multinational companies started moving to India ( PayPal did first step)

    Cheap and qualified labour from Eastern Europe gone home ,got old and life in Ireland with small Irish wages not attractive anymore.There is no houses for rent left for labour from Brazil. Unfortunately labour from Brazil not so much educate and qualified as Eastern European.

    In my town around 60K population and only 8 houses for rent.At the moment there is 123 houses for sale when before month there was only 76.

    Once people will lose them jobs they will go home ! Because nobody will survive with today prices in Ireland without job !

    PayPal moving to India were more qualified and cheap labour.Microsoft and Facebook stopped hiring in Ireland.Tech startups started closing down in Ireland because no more cheap money coming from investors.The Minimal Corporation tax clicking over at same when recession started .

    There is only matter of time when coockoos from abroad will start pumping money out and not invest (already started)

    I think average person in Ireland still doesn't understand in what mess this country are and that there is no more another Eastern Europe were cheap labour which will pay rents in Ireland will coming from.

    Afrika , Brazil ? Unfortunately we all know about level of them education.When person from Eastern Europe which came to Ireland when he was 25 now are 45 ! And no more coming because there not much children born and those who did getting jobs at home at same money minus rent in Ireland !

    Don't forget Debt of Ireland and what PIGS mean ! The debt is still there and are higher !



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    #1145
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300129#Comment_119300129

    so thats a yes then :)



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    #1146
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300156#Comment_119300156

    No one will survive when unemployment will rising and cheap labour with multinational will start leave country.

    We been lucky during 2008 when multinational was staying and giving jobs.But now they getting so heavy losses that I don't think Ireland will offer anything special keeping in mind Minimal Corporation tax .

    Housing market so wrecked that I don't think any unemployed will survive from doll here .

    Look at labour shortage in Ireland at the moment and same UK.This gonna be worst when recession will start ! That why government paid PUP because they learned from previous 2008 recession when labour left !

    I don't think Ireland will make trough this recession.This gona be end.



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    #1147
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300197#Comment_119300197

    So what Ireland just disappears? What countries do you think will be fine during a recession?



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    #1148
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300243#Comment_119300243

    I have no idea.But this country will not survive without cheap and qualified labour and multinational with today prices.

    Also I could imagine the size of taxation for those who will stay when Ireland will have service country debt.

    For many Irish families will be better sell property in Ireland and move to smaller taxation countries.



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    #1149
    bb12
    Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300318#Comment_119300318

    While I do agree with a lot of what you say, I think you forget or perhaps don't know how bad Ireland was in the 80s and we got through it. Yes, it was bleak at times and the young had to emigrate, but I think that all fed into the booms which followed. So I wouldn't quite write off the Irish people just yet...there may be a shock in store for the millenials( maybe its the best thing that could happen to them) but the older crowd have been through it before and I think even in all the good times, we've always been mindful that we could lose it all, so in a way we've always been preparing for it in the back of our minds.



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    #1150
    euphreve
    Registered Users Posts: 8 ✭euphreve


    As bad as things might get, they are unlikely to be as dire as 2008-12.



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    #1151
    bb12
    Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119301575#Comment_119301575

    I actually think its going to be a lot worse than 2008. we're looking at food shortages as well as energy shortages plus add in sky rocketing inflation...all hitting at the same time...add to that job losses etc...i think it's going to be a lot more akin to the 80s than the naugties



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    #1152
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119301638#Comment_119301638

    think it will feel worse than the 80s because of the relatively luxurious and wealthy position that we are falling from. And I think we collectively have nowhere near the resilience



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    #1153
    riclad
    Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Some people will be delighted if there's a recession if it reduces rents or brings down house prices and makes it easier to hire workers recessions are good for some people one example 2 euro shops , maybe some people will. Buy a bike instead of buying a new car booms only last so, long before there's a bust or a recession

    I think tech firms and any firms that sell crypto bitcoin are laying off staff



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    #1154
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.npr.org/2022/07/04/1109743558/biden-urges-unity-in-july-4th-speech-while-acknowledging-the-countrys-sour-mood

    Biden July 4 speech says plenty about things coming.

    6 more houses for sale per last 24 hours on my location.Looks like those sellers missed them train.So what about " shortage of supply" which experts was singing about?


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/07/07/over-half-of-governments-corporation-tax-receipts-might-be-unsustainable/

    That's mad.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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    #1155
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭brickster69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119300243#Comment_119300243

    Hungary has good potential. Fixed long term energy at far cheaper cost than everyone else. It would be no surprise at all to see energy reliant corporate's setting up there, probably quite a few in the process of planning it. They will have a huge advantage when you think about it

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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    #1156
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Once cheap money from coockoos will stop coming from USA due with higher rates and inflation the building sites in Ireland will be stopped .Those coockoos has investors and once they will start pooling them money out the coockoos will start property sell off in Ireland.

    Sisk turned out of social housing projects due with cost inflation so government will probably buy property for social housing at high cost from coockoos.Sisk could be not the one.

    Kingspan sales falling badly what show slow down on sites already

    All this will hit rental market were labour from abroad paying rents when they will lose jobs on sites.

    Multinational hiring on halt.PayPal transfering number of positions to India.Many foreign workers working in those companies what will hit rental market also when they will leave country due with high cost of living .

    Cheap money from USA doesn't come to tech sector.Many let staff go.

    Inflation.Unemployment started to rise.

    What will happen with economy of Ireland next year ? No need to be big expert to understand that.



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    #1157
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0707/1308866-us-federal-reserve-minutes/


    US central bankers last month flagged the concern that sky-high inflation could become a permanent fixture, and stressed their readiness to continue raising interest rates to tamp down price pressures.

    They will do what it takes to bring inflation down - they will induce a recession.

    Lagarde meanwhile is flicking her beans.



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    #1158
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119299943#Comment_119299943

    I'd imagine the EU will have something to say - that kind of national run companies doesnt fly anymore in EU for the most part, state aid and all that.

    Although when one of the big players is doing it (france/germany) maybe they'll turn a blind eye



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    #1159
    tom1ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,377 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302429#Comment_119302429

    yeah so wasn’t the ESB broke up at the behest f the EU due to them having a monopoly and it being unfair competition for prices.



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    #1160
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,299 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302405#Comment_119302405

    theyre all flicking their beans, particularly the males of our central banks, it ll be interesting to see how much damage will be done from these rate hikes, since inflation has virtually nothing to be doing with our money supplies!



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    #1161
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302283#Comment_119302283

    You are correct with a lot of this. It has always been the case though. Boom to bust.



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    #1162
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302835#Comment_119302835

    rate rises impacts spending power which impacts demand for oil and gas. Our inflation has everything to do with the money supply, as its the money supply that chases the now limited supplies of oil and gas. Less money will always mean less inflation



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    #1163
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,299 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302906#Comment_119302906

    ...the only problem is, most money created in both the public and private domains hasnt made it into such markets, it is primarily remained within our financial sectors, (re)inflating asset prices, our current inflationary issues have largely nothing to be doing with the money supply, its primarily due to supply and energy market shocks, increasing rates is only going to further compound the problem, by increasing the likelihood of defaults and non performing loans, the most vulnerable being in the private domain....

    i.e. inflation can be caused by a multitude of effects, from excess money creation, and to other economic phenomenon such as supply and energy market shocks, as is currently the case.....

    ...i.e. prepare for something serious.....



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    #1164
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302946#Comment_119302946

    Supply and energy markets aren't changing anytime soon. The only option left is to increase rates.



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    #1165
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119302946#Comment_119302946

    ....there's 23 billion euro sitting in peoples bank accounts in this country.

    There's far too much money around.

    Anything that can be bought on credit has been ballooned up in price because of low interest rates. Houses, cars, machinery are all outrageous prices yet people are still buying them.



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    #1166
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,299 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119303049#Comment_119303049

    ....or is it! how about introducing other polices along side rate hikes, to reduce the negative effects of these hikes! yes supply and energy markets are more than likely gonna remain in a mess for a while, so maybe we should try to reduce their severities!

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119303075#Comment_119303075

    ...by any chance are non savers represented by that data?

    ...how come so many are starting to struggle to pay for their most critical of needs?

    ...yes, one the primary goals of credit is in fact to inflate prices, so ta-dah! again, only those that can access credit, are doing do....



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    #1167
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119303125#Comment_119303125

    ...how come so many are starting to struggle to pay for their most critical of needs?

    They're not. There's a massive amount of poor mouthing going on. Pensioners are always saying they can't pay for the heating yet they're the ones with 60k under the mattress.



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    #1168
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,299 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119303242#Comment_119303242

    ...again, is this a perception, or an actual fact?



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    #1169
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119303242#Comment_119303242

    Ahh come on.


    While you were at it. Why didn't you say that they have 300k under the mattress.



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    #1170
    bb12
    Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119303489#Comment_119303489

    from my experience, if pensioners have any money put aside, it's usually to pay for their funeral. that's usually their top priority for any savings



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    #1171
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Chemical giant BASF talking of shutting down production if energy levels decrease much more. Hard to see how they stay open with Nord stream 1 closing completely for at least 2 weeks on Monday. Can you imagine the ammount of companies who rely on a company like that for products worldwide.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-germany-companies-idAFL1N2YA0G1


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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