Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I'm sure there will be objections to migrants coming in paying high income tax and renting housing also generating an income for the state

Affordable does not mean unprofitable

It's pure loose loose, carry on with what yer doing that obviously more sustainable

What proportion of multinational employees are migrants by the way

Don’t think they will delay rate hikes to bring the ecb rate back to zero but they might pause before going positive and Instead they may focus on shrinking the balance sheet. Either way will result in higher rates and slowing down the economy and strengthening the Euro

Do you think euro stocks would be a better buy for dollar holding investors considering the euro and the still elevated price of dollar stocks

What are you basing your confidence on that a new Government would do it? Investment funds rely on REIT legislation designed to improve inward investment, without it the forward financing of developments would not exist. The scale of investment and lack to tax income is an unintended consequence, but without it, there would be much less building going on. So don’t be too confident that SF will suddenly rip it up, they are making lots of promises, but like Boris, eventually people will ask what happened to the bright new dawn that was spoken of at election time.

Do you not think that the introduction of the borrowing cap has done a lot to reduce the likelihood of that statement? I’m not sure what the recent data is, but not so long ago it was reported that almost half of property purchases were cash, so why do you think it’s our Achilles heel/we will have IMF intervention?

I can bet majority be back to office within a year. Within 2 years, everyone. Obviously hybrid model in tech was always there. So 2 days wfh per week.

Management dont care for your rhythm. My company froze all hiring from last week. I know the other big tech places froze all hiring too. So there is not that many places to go if you just average tech worker, unless you want to work for small firm. Which will force you to come in.

Those people who threaten to leave, majority will get a reality check and be at their desk by 9 am.

ultimately the voters will decide

The amount of red flags this scheme has sidestepped is astonishing

I wonder did he ask himself how there parents were able to manage it and not their children. Could it possibly be government schemes driving up price at every opportunity?

I still think the opposite will happen and the hiring freeze you speak of is part of the reason - that growth and profits will be lower. Add in the energy crisis that will hit later this year (which almost certainly will lead to government orders for those that can to WFH in order to prevent our fuel being used up on commuters (if covid does not result in some WFH rules)) and I think the nail will be in the coffin for the traditional office model.

To turn this back to housing; 300 rentals in Dublin city means that companies cannot grow headcount in Dublin or even issue full return to the office policies as there is almost zero rentals available. To think that companies will grow headcount in Dublin in the short term is to have solved the housing crisis and therefore I'd like to know what this solution is!

The way I see something like this happening comes from the massive elephant in the room that the government has been ignoring for a long time now; the corporate tax dependency and concentration risk within that dependency.

Our public spending has ballooned in recent years and yet the electorate are crying out for reliefs which means that even more public spending is needed. At the same time, for years now we have been aware our corporate tax dependency cannot remain. Should this risk materialise and our corporate taxes take a hit (the probability of this happening is ever increasing), then we will have issues (including hampered borrowing ability to replace the corporate taxes we were so dependent on) trying to sustain the public spending as well as launching massive new infrastructure projects. Our debt has been increasing non-stop since 2008 and without the corporate tax influenced debt:GDP, we will have big problems and need a dig out.

It's not incorrect to say that our economy is incredibly reliant on MNC activity between the companies themselves and the workers they employ in the country. At the moment, it does not look like the economy is that strong should we carve out the MNC activities. In response to the claim that our public debt is not that much of a problem, well when the ECB turns off the tap in order to cool inflation, suddenly it will be an issue as the servicing costs in the bond market (without ECB whale activity) will be rather unsustainable in the coming years.

It does not need to be all doom and gloom though; materially forcing down housing costs will significantly boost the resilience both at individual and national level. At individual level, people will have more cash to put towards other areas of their lives; at national level, the government will need to allocate less to housing assistance schemes but would also be more likely to succeed in raising some taxes as individuals won't feel like they have their backs to the wall already. This is why it is not really different to 08 because housing costs have consumed far too much of our productive economic activity once again and will impact our ability to weather and recover from economic storms. The sad thing is that there are quick fixes to get supply of housing increased quite easily; simply undo the anti-small landlord policies of the last few years. The small landlord is the lifeblood of our rental market and some very easy measures could be brought in to get them back involved but the will power and focus from our politicians needs to be directed towards them and not at the institutionals in order to achieve something.

In theory greater rental supply should mean lower rents, but only if supply levels reach critical mass. Ideally there needs to be a lot of new builds to supply both categories, which isn’t likely anytime soon. At the moment, with COL increases and poorly thought out legislation which discourages small investors, the prospect of an influx of small investors is near zero, no matter how attractive yields are.

It really is a unique situation where being a LL is not seen as worthwhile endeavour, even though rents have never been higher, it’s a complete clusterfuck.

I can agree there.

We have open positions for technical specialists, skilled and well paid, very difficult jobs to fill. The rental situation is insane and yet people ate campaigning about too many BTRs getting built.

We have had IRISH engineers abroad agree to take positions with us, they looked at the situation in Dublin and turned down the jobs.

Totally agree, anything to benefit small landlords returning to the market will just increase bidding wars and house prices, rents won't drop because landlords are buying at the top of the market and need top dollar rents to keep on ahead of increasing mortage rates.

How is a large employer who contributes loads of tax themselves and through their employees collapsing a good thing for the housing crisis here?

"The social media giant's largest Irish subsidiary – Facebook Ireland Limited – paid a tax charge of €266.3 million on its activities in the Republic for the 12 months ending December 31st, 2020, according to accounts submitted to the Companies Registration Office."

"The US company, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Oculus, employs 6,000 people across multiple Irish locations, including its international headquarters in Dublin, its data centre in Meath and its "Reality Lab" office in Cork. It is also developing a new headquarters building in Dublin's Ballsbridge."

source: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-state-s-top-10-corporate-taxpayers-who-are-they-1.4766017