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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭Field east


    If that is the case , then fair dues to American - it picked A very , very, very good “A” team to defend Ukr -Its incredible how Ukr have held out for so long and is still holding out



  • Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well why break a habit of a lifetime.

    Reading earlier about the calls to civilians to evacuate Donetsk so that the military can concentrate solely on operations. Probably a good move given the Russians have targeted the main market and surrounding areas in Sloviansk and will repeat the same in other large towns and cities.



  • Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    There are a good couple of articles and podcasts on War On The Rocks about the conflict. One interesting one that I read recently was about air supremecy or rather the lack of it, and how other countries should learn from the situation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    Yeah - if America was really able to do this, then really, they should be left to do it again and again - there are lots of states (Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc) that could do with similar regime change.

    This is something the world should really support - Afghanistan was merely an unfortunate aberration



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    "Information overload" (aka "fill the air with as much all sorts of contradictory shíte as possible") is exactly the Russian troll tactic.

    These novel disinformation campaigns exploit the increased information overload experienced by people in the digital world. They flood the information space with a multitude of lies, half-truths or absurd news. It is not at all a question of disseminating new knowledge or arguments about an event or aspect. Rather, it is a matter of unsettling citizens as information consumers by intensified "information noise." Facts that have been confirmed are lost or devalued as one of several possibilities.

    When you see this happening online you know that:

    It's either trolls in the service of Kremlin, directly and willingly spreading Russia state propaganda.

    Or as useful idiots just playing for Kremlin on their own volition for whatever reason.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    A long thread from a logistics expert describing Russian "tactics" and how backward they are.

    https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017?t=OYJlgkoJmQacNqUympKrEA&s=19

    Meanwhile Ukrainian partisans strike railway targets (for a reason - Russia uses railways to supply and now even to deploy)

    Ukrainian partisans in and around occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast are increasingly targeting Russian rail lines. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans blew up a railway bridge about 25 km north of Melitopol between Novobohdanivka and Troitske on July 7, likely further obstructing Russian resupply efforts from Crimea to the Zaporizhia Oblast front line. Ukrainian partisans had previously blown up a rail bridge near occupied Lyubimivka between Melitopol and Tokmak on July 3 and derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    The Russian invasion is grounding to a halt by all accounts. The Ukraine now has a chance to turn things back in their favour.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    One obvious point. The Ukrainians have welcomed NGOs such as Human Rights Watch,Amnesty International and UN investigators to Ukraine. Have the Russians followed suit? It would show confidence that their version of events is the true one to make a hostage to fortune by allowing investigations into crimes they are accused of committing. Or astonishing stupidity. Are the Ukrainians stupid? Which side have acted like guilty parties? Innocent parties have nothing to hide.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Unfortunately, Russians use human bodies as a cannon fodder and attack as insects. They will keep throwing poorer and poorer recruits (forced) at it at a massive cost and losses. That's how they did it in WW2 and one of the reasons they "won". Millions were used to swarm.

    Thankfully, it's not 1942 and they don't have million of men to throw at it. The still have loads though.

    This could go on for a long time, unless Ukraine gets superior tech in large numbers. In modern warfare the tech actually matters...



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I call bull to anyone who thinks there's gonna be some peace talks or that Ukrainians would cede territory or whatever. Completely incorrect and misunderstanding of Ukrainian vs Russian culture. Russians don't negotiate unless completely hammered (see Chechen war 1) and Ukrainians don't give up and resist (see Ukrainian history of last 300 years).

    From Ukrainian Center of National Resistance website

    We are Ukrainian resistance. This site was created by the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to support and coordinate all those who wish to fight for the liberation of our land from Russian invaders. Together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we will imperceptibly destroy any enemy who came to our country.


    We're going to do it where he doesn't expect it, where he feels supposedly safe. We will teach you how to conduct intelligence and transmit data about the enemy. Let's tell you how to effectively resist nonviolent resistance, because sometimes there are situations when there will be no weapons in your hands. You will learn how not to leave traces on the Internet, so as not to have problems with the occupation police. Now you will know how to provide first aid to the wounded.


    Yes, we are at war with a strong enemy, it outweighs us in number, it can temporarily seize a particular city. But he will never be able to hold it, because in every house we will wait for him. And we will free every meter of our land, step by step.


    Together we will turn the lives of the invaders into hell!

    Join!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭Field east




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭Field east


    Ooo



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Security Service: Russian forces attack their proxies in Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on July 10, citing intercepted phone calls, that Russian troops had bombed a battalion of their proxies from Donetsk Oblast fighting on their side. According to a phone conversation by one of Russia's proxies, the battalion was trying to withdraw from the frontline near Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, when Russians attacked them.

    Some up-to-date news on the invasion of Ukraine.

    Also, the US defence office says if the Ukraine can arrange it, an attack on the Minsk Bridge is fair game. It would however require a long-range weapon of significant power.

    Dan.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This is an excellent video by a veteran war reporter and by most accounts is a good journalist.

    He is right. We really are being bombarded with propaganda from both sides so it's almost impossible for us civilians to have an informed picture about what is going on on the ground.

    Some of you may not like it, but I tend to side with the opinion that Ukraine has taken heavy losses and is overstating their victories and is the country putting out the most propaganda.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭amandstu


    This is not some kind of a bragging rights contest.


    Russia has no business in Ukraine and Ukraine is entitled to do all it can to repel the invader


    Other countries have a moral obligation to give Ukraine what help they can ,in the knowledge that by doing so they are also acting in their own self interest .


    Only naive fools believe what either side of a military conflict say without a grain of salt


    But this does not establish any kind of a moral equivalence between Russia and Ukraine (other than that both countries are victims of the same criminal cabal in the Kremlin)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Countries have no moral obligation to help each other. Remember countries don't have friends, just interests. A country is not a person after all. And to be honest, in my opinion the only reason Ukraine is getting so much coverage is because firstly they are white and secondly they are fighting Russia who many categorise as an enemy to the west.

    Hopefully this war won't drag on for too long and eventually both sides will have to come to the negotiating table. Personally, I feel we will see more movement towards this in the winter, especially if it is cold and energy prices really start to bite the population of Europe and maybe to a lesser degree the USA.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Countries have a moral obligation to protect themselves and this is what both the Ukraine and we are doing.


    Tactics are a different thing and fish can be fried in many ways.


    But allowing and rewarding barefaced territorial aggression is something that only the naive or the cowardly would advise.



    We ,like Ukraine have little choice but to stand up to crude and barbaric aggression.


    For us ,moreso than Ukraine the costs are not so high when placed against the cost of failure


    (for Ukraine the costs of success and failure are both intolerably high and theirs must be the judgement which course to take.We must support whatever they decide)


    Our energy security should have been arranged before this conflict showed it up and would have had to be addressed anyway in light of the climate emergency.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ Chaya Slimy Fax


    Ireland is neutral and doing nothing except for taking care of the refugees



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭amandstu


    By "we"I was not referring to Ireland specifically-I meant the democracies.


    Do you think Ireland should do more?

    Is Ukraine asking for more from Ireland?



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ Chaya Slimy Fax


    I think we should probably not be a neutral country, what Ukraine needs is military assistance, Ireland could provide some if we wernt neutral



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Interesting stuff from latest eurobarometer polls.

    While 59% of people in europe see preservation of European values as priority, (as opposed to maintaining prices and cost of living), in same survey 59 and 58% are not ready to face a rise in food and energy prices respectively, as a consequence of sanctions against russia.

    Cost of living crisis certainly starting to bite, and this survey was only done in April-May. Ukraine need a big win before winter or public support will dwindle



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    The fact that there is propaganda doesn't make it impossible to be informed about what is happing. It just makes it more difficult. Ukraine has without question taken heavy losses. The civilian and economic toll alone is massive - far greater than the impact of sanctions on Russia by an order of dozens, or perhaps a hundred times. As for military casualties, you aren't onto some kind of secret and unpopular opinion to say that Ukraine has suffered heavy military casualties, indeed as many if not more than Russia has over the last month. The President of Ukraine has come out and said that:

    Likewise, there have been a lot of false stories in favour of Ukraine going around e.g. the Ghost of Kyiv. However, and I think it is important to stress this, those were stories put about on social media by who knows who. When it comes to Ukrainian official data, this is reasonably indicative of the correct position. Sure, they will for morale purposes minimise their own casualties while taking an optimistic view of Russian casualties, but such is not propaganda so much as a way of reporting. For example, if 100 Russians are injured, Ukraine might report that as 100 Russian casulaties, even if some recovered from their wounds fairly easily. We can also have confidence in what Zelensky says because, as per above, when it is going badly for Ukraine, he says as such and doesn't try to hide it. When someone admits their own difficulties as well as their successess, you can trust them a lot more than someone who only ever points to their successes and denies their failings.

    By contrast, the stuff coming out of Russia is propaganda. When Putin claims that Ukraine is not a real country, or that the conflict is a proxy war with NATO, we know that these statements are not true and are mere fantasty. When he or Kremlin backed newspapers then put out a story with no evidence, such as the chemical weapons plants in Ukraine, given their history as unreliable narrators, we tend to disbelieve them.

    So ultimately, yes, there are conflicting reports from both sides. But that doesn't mean that we can't trust anybody, or that people are free to just randomly pick a side they want to believe in, so to speak. We must assess the reliability of the people who are saying these things. What Ukraine says may not always be true, but its a lot more likely to be so than what Russia says.

    The Ukraine are getting so much coverage because they are in Europe and were attacked by an aggressive neighbour, yet are putting up a stout resistance. It's not a race issue.

    And as regards Russia being categorised by "many" as an enemy to the west, Russia is an enemy to the West. That is beyond dispute. And it was Russians themselves who have created this emnity. We know this because Putin himself has labelled the West as his enemy. It's not a mutual thing. The West, particularly EU countries like Germany, have extended the hand of friendship to Russia, but the Russians interpret this as weakness rather than friendship.

    As regards both sides coming to the negotiating table, this is interesting because, according to Russia, the Ukraine is a failed Nazi state and they are not at war with them, but just conducting a special military operation. How does a country not at war go to the negotiation table, or was that just lies from Russia about it not being a war?

    Be careful what you wish for re: energy prices stating to bite the population of Europe and the USA. This is predicated on the mistaken belief that Ukrainian resistance is done as a proxy or puppet for the EU or USA. But it is not. The Ukrainians and only the Ukrainians decide whether they will keep fighting or not, and the choice for the EU and USA is whether to keep supporting Ukraine or not. If the population of the EU and USA want to see an early resolution to this war, the only way they can do so is by increasing the support for Ukraine in order to drive the Russians out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Took a quick look at the questions on the Eurobarometer Survey (think it was this one) https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2792

    Seems pretty clear that "values" and defending them are being put above any economic factors across the majority of the EU at the moment, as they linked them directly in the key question.

    From the summary:

    Freedom is not for free – and that is OK. Nearly six out of ten respondents (59%) say the defence of common European values such as freedom and democracy is more important than maintaining prices and the cost of living. This is also the relative majority view in 20 Member States.

    QA15 is a Likert scale running from 1 (The defence of our common European values such as democracy & freedom must be a priority, even if...) up to 6-(Maintaining prices and the cost of living must be a priority even if...)

    Most respondants are falling on ranges 1-3 (59 %).

    In any case how does a 180degree reversed European approach to Ukraine actually fix any of this (energy costs and shortages) without also creating some bigger problems down the line? Kow-towing (that's what it will be) to Putin/Russia now is very much a can kicking exercise. How it works to benefit Europe apart from perhaps some cheaper energy in short term is never explained. If you consider what will probably happen after stopping the military support of Ukraine and ending the EU sanctions for more than 2 seconds, it is clear its a very bad idea. That's leaving aside bone fides of the people who argue for/promote such policies or why they do so (not for our benefit imo).

    The above posters point (be careful what you wish for!) is a good one as well. If the US/EU really start finding the global economic costs and stresses of a prolonged war in Ukraine mounting and becoming intolerable (inflation, energy shortages this winter, potential famines??) later in the year, they could decide the best option is to ramp up the military support for Ukraine and the economic warfare on Russia even further, ignoring all the (not so veiled) threats of military escalation and retaliatory actions by Putin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Nonsense.

    Yes, Ukrainian does some war propaganda (in its original well intended meaning) to keep its population morale, keep good spirits and celebrate heroes. That doesn't mean Ukrainian sources are lying.

    Russia doesn't do propaganda in this sense - it creates an alternate reality constructed from lies upon lies upon lies, contradictory lies and conspiracies.

    You can't compare the two. Anyone who does is an idiot, a provocateur with an agenda or a Kremlin agent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Thankfully, the most pro-European Czech government in 20 years is taking up the EU Presidency after the French is going to make sure there are further EU sanctions and EU military action 👍🏻 Incredibly lucky it's this government and not the previous populist one. All the populists now in the opposition are showing their feathers talking about how consumer prices should be the focus and not Ukraine and that essentially Ukraine should be left to rot.


    Post edited by McGiver on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    That sounds really positive, though expect that sort of programme (focussing on collective defence, increased military support for Ukraine etc.) being pushed in the EU will make this country and its politicians squirm hard. That is no bad thing at all though IMO.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,440 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I think it's time to challenge the taboo of Irish fake neutrality. Or however you call it. Let's call a spade a spade.

    Getting more involved in EU defence leveraging and complementary to NATO would probably be a good choice for Ireland as I thought because I expected it would be very palatable to Finland and Sweden also but that's changed. Now the whole EU is in NATO essentially bar Cyprus, Malta (microstates), Austria and Ireland. So the only one to work with on EU defence is Austria, erm not so sure this is the way but.

    April 2022 visit to Austria:

    Last month, on a visit to Vienna, President Michael D Higgins warned: “We must not allow ourselves to be mired in militarism.”

    One thing is militarism, another is defending democracy, freedom and human rights. The latter can't be defended with words. Austrian army isn't great but is it a 3 times active personel and 15 times reservists of Ireland. Irish army is essentially a joke, especially if you are "neutral".



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Always thought we should be aiming to have a "normal" European military for size & wealth of the country (we've a long way to go there) and participate in any EU collective defence efforts. Would not have supported Ireland joining NATO at all pre this war and I am still doubtful about it (but less than I was). The public support is definitely not there for it anyway, it is not at all certain IMO if it will be there for further EU collective defence moves either (hence the "squirming" I mentioned in the post).

    People like Michael D. are close to pacifists/idealists in fairness. They will wring their hands and wail about what is occurring in Ukraine, but find it hard to accept the fact that sometimes the only way to stop a bully (a nation willing to resort to conquest & genocide as policy tools) is force, weapons etc. I suppose they are especially suspicious of force that is not deployed by/on behalf of a global body like the UN, but as we see with this war, the UN is not ready for that job at all, and helpless when one of the Security Council members is the rogue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭Jon Doe




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  • Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭Jon Doe


    People that don't understand that diplomacy is only viable when both sides want to talk are not worth paying attention to. Putin for the moment only understands two languages: death and destruction. It's our job to supply both in spades. I heard there's good money to be made in weapon sales... maybe the US MIC is on to something... 🤔😜



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