Next British PM

blackcard · 08-07-2022 3:03pm #1

Think that it deserves a thread of its own Who do you think will be the next British PM? The possible candidates in order of favouritism are as follows:

Ben Wallace

Rishi Sunak

Penny Morduant

Tom Tugendhat

Andrea Jenkins

Liz Truss

Nadim Zahawi

Sajid Javid

Jeremy Hunt

Steve Baker

Dominic Raab

Wera Hobhouse

Daily Cooper

Suella Braverman

Grant Sharps

Priti Patel

Boris Johnson

Anyone else?

Who will win?

Who is best or worst for us?

ancapailldorcha · 08-07-2022 5:50pm

Jeremy Hunt is probably the best option. He's by no means perfect but the pool isn't exactly stacked with talent.

People like Baker and Raab will try to screw over Ireland the first chance they get. They won't be able to but it won't stop the irritation of having yet more Brexit nonsense to deal with. Javid and Sunak are more sober choices. We'll have to see how things pan out.

I think Sunak is the forerunner.

Sam Russell · 08-07-2022 7:20pm

Truss would be a disaster for Britain, for Ireland, the EU, and probably the Tories.

She was a remainer. Now she is a remainer - that is she wants to remain relevant - or at least what she thinks others consider relevant. So Brexit it is - and the harder the better - is that not right, ERG?

SecretsOfEarth · 08-07-2022 7:22pm

It's a fairly grim list alright, especially the latter half - Raab and Patel would be more disasters waiting to happen, albeit for different reasons. Patel is extremely cut-throat and would have little concern for Irish or EU worries, while Raab just seems to be outstandingly incompetent in every way.

Any votes for Nadine Dorries? 🤣

blackcard · 08-07-2022 7:32pm

The ERG have sufficient numbers that a candidate of their choice should be one of the two candidates that goes forward to the membership for selection as the PM. It is my understanding that the membership is even more conservative, more pro-brexit and more anti- EU than the parliamentary party and I am afraid that they will select the more hardline candidate

ancapailldorcha · 09-07-2022 11:44am

It can't be Braverman. Even for the current crop of candidates, she's appalling:

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1545694173629644800

In the second video, she boasts about the ERG taking public money but can't give the names of any of its members.

mazdamiatamx5 · 09-07-2022 12:00pm

What are peoples views on Penny Mordaunt? I don't know much about her.

Interestingly enough if it's Mordaunt or Braverman Britain will have its third female PM - all Tories.

mikep · 09-07-2022 12:16pm

According to the UK independent, Ben Wallace has ruled himself out of the race

Rishi Sunak issued a video yesterday declaring his candidacy.

It's a hard one to call with the long list of potential candidates..

Nody · 09-07-2022 12:40pm

Well Ben W. and Rishi were the top to choices according to betting firms and if the rumours are true about Rishi having a campaign ready (and with 12 MPs stepping up behind him) he's the main target for knives would be my guess. Tories don't care where his wife is domeciled but not lowering taxes is probably going to be a beating stick used against him.

Larbre34 · 09-07-2022 12:47pm

Mordaunt gives the impression that she believes she is the best thing since sliced bread, but in fact her experience is limited - too limited to become PM.

Yes, she is Trade Secretary, yet Liz Truss is the one that has been taking all the limelight for the new trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, Japan etc (even if they are shyte)

So yes, Mordaunt will probably run, positioning herself politically between a Wallace and a Braverman.

With Wallace gone though, his ilk may coalesce around a Tugendhat, or less likely a Jeremy Hunt. No doubt about it though, Wallace ruling himself increases the potential quotient of crazy quite a bit.

My guess is the final two will be Javid V Truss and it'll be close run.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-07-2022 12:56pm

Are we in the twilight zone, how on earth could a PM be forced to resign due to partygate , and then we have Rishi Sunak his fellow party goer, Rishi a law breaker, who was fined by the police wanting to take over . WTF

It's one thing for a PM to break the law while PM, It's an entirely different thing to actually appoint a known law breaker as PM.

WTF

BorneTobyWilde · 09-07-2022 12:59pm

Jeremy Hunt is an absolute country mile ahead of anyone else in the running, he only lost out to Boris last time out.

Strazdas · 09-07-2022 1:03pm

Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss are the top 3 in the betting - with Sunak the warm favourite.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-07-2022 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313354#Comment_119313354

How the fck could that happen when he did the exact same as Boris??

Nody · 09-07-2022 1:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313354#Comment_119313354

Should clearly be Nandine as "she'll carry on the Boris torch" because clearly that's what the party wants after depositing him...

raclle · 09-07-2022 1:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119310371#Comment_119310371

People like Baker and Raab will try to screw over Ireland the first chance they get.

This is my main worry for whoever gets in as I don't trust any of them with maybe the exception of Ben Wallace. He understands N.Ireland better than the rest having served a couple of tours and is in support of the GFA. He probably has the most sense and realises the importance of our trade relations and even though we are not their biggest import source it certainly wouldn't help damaging our relationship

donegal_man · 09-07-2022 2:04pm

Doesn't matter who gets it according to the Express. Johnson will be back, emulating his roll model, Winston Churchill!

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1637369/boris-johnson-resignation-news-caretaker-prime-minister-conservative-party-vn

McGiver · 09-07-2022 2:09pm

It's going to be either a woman or man of colour. The racist, chauvinist, classist and xenophobic and now quasi-fascist Tories will use that as a PR to "Show" they are not racist, chauvinist, classist, xenophobic and now quasi-fascist...

Doesn't look good anyway. It could be worse than Johnson the Clown.

ancapailldorcha · 09-07-2022 2:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313522#Comment_119313522

Iain Dale is correct. He's done. I'm not sure why they're pining for a resurrection. Johnson was a pathetic PM and there are plenty like him ready to push culture war politics.

ancapailldorcha · 09-07-2022 2:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313431#Comment_119313431

Hunt's election, should it happen is likely to represent a return to centre-right politics hopefully heralding a move away from sabre-rattling over the protocol and towards serious government and tackling the issues.

nigeldaniel · 09-07-2022 2:18pm

I think Ben had opted out. Pity now its likely to be Lis Truss or Hunt.

Larbre34 · 09-07-2022 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313335#Comment_119313335

He wasn't forced to resign over Partygate.

Partygate was one in a litany of bad leadership examples, but he was forced to resign over appointing an entirely unsuitable person to a job, where he repeated previous criminal behaviour and then Boris and his No 10 staff lied about it all.

In the archive of episodes demonstrating Boris' total lack of morals, scruples and integrity, right back to his youth, Partygate will be a mere after-thought compared to his other despicable behaviour.

donegal_man · 09-07-2022 2:25pm

"It has not been an easy choice to make, but my focus is on my current job and keeping this great country safe. I wish the very best of luck to all candidates and hope we swiftly return to focusing on the issues that we are all elected to address."

Ben Wallace statement withdrawing from the leadership race.

Larbre34 · 09-07-2022 2:32pm

He could yet be a White Knight figure, kept clean of the grime that will be evident in the coming weeks.

ancapailldorcha · 09-07-2022 2:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313574#Comment_119313574

He has. Shame. One of the better candidates.

https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1545732698567737344

BorneTobyWilde · 09-07-2022 3:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313592#Comment_119313592

Partygate was a huge part of it. Do you really thing a known law breaker like Rishi could get the job..

Podge_irl · 09-07-2022 3:45pm

Sunak's issues will be around his green card and his wife's non-dom status. "Partygate" isn't even going to come into it.

Tugendhat is by far the best option for a "return to normal politics" angle.

raclle · 09-07-2022 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313557#Comment_119313557

With the way he handled the NHS his prospects don't look good and he was comprehensively defeated by Boris last time out. He's had a few various somewhat successful roles so he knows his way around as opposed to someone like Tugendhat. I'd like to see what his policies are going forward though

kirk. · 09-07-2022 4:43pm

Sunsk was too fast out of the blocks and too forward about the whole thing, can't see him there at the finish

blackcard · 09-07-2022 4:51pm

Strange that Ben Wallace is not entering the race. Seemed to have a very good chance and it is rare in a politician not to have the ambition to be the leader of a country. Is there a reason, apart from his statement that he discussed it with his family, that he is not entering the race at this point?

amacca · 09-07-2022 5:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119314082#Comment_119314082

Perhaps he knows the type of policies he would have to pursue (given the types he would have to persuade to back him) and how incompatible they are with long-term success of his country or himself.....might be angling for a more sustainable long term run at leadership.

Maybe he is genuine and doesn't want the increased level of scrutiny/vitriol that would come his and his families way.....what if he's not just an avaricious pole climber and he thinks the whole brexit mess is untenable but now is not the time to display good judgement?.......there's an argument for not taking a hospital pass/poison chalice.

Godot. · 09-07-2022 10:16pm

Sunak sounds less dogmatic regarding the Protocol than the rest.

Seth Brundle · 09-07-2022 10:23pm

^^^ Kwasi Kwarteng looks to have the skills to replace Johnson

gmisk · 09-07-2022 10:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119313346#Comment_119313346

I don't think he is that popular with people due to his performance as health secretary?

He also seems to have a few powerful enemies in the media e.g. Rebekah Brooks (head of news UK)

blackcard · 11-07-2022 1:45pm

When is the closing date for candidates to be nominated? When does the first ballot take place? Can there be more than 1 ballot in a day?

quokula · 11-07-2022 2:04pm

It says a lot about how far gone the Tories are that Jeremy Hunt is considered by many to be the best option there for a serious competent politician, when he was known as the most incompetent and least popular member of David Cameron's cabinet a few years ago.

Tom Tugenhadt would be a decent choice too. I think I recall him having some problematic opinions that British soldiers shouldn't be held to account for crimes in Northern Ireland, but as a Tory with a military background that's pretty much par for the course. In general he seems to have his head screwed on when it comes to policy.

Outside of those two there are really only bad options and terrible options.

Shelga · 11-07-2022 5:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119322001#Comment_119322001

I’d agree those two seem like the least dire. Maybe Penny Mordaunt too, as she’s not too closely associated with Boris and wasn’t a fan of his, but then again she was pro Brexit so presumably logic is not her forte. She also bizarrely featured the deceased Labour MP Jo Cox in her campaign video, for some unknown reason, and had to change it.

Sunak’s campaign seems to be centered around rebuilding the country, as if it slipped his mind that he’s been Chancellor for the last 2 years and his party has been in government for the last 12.

Truss is truly vile- no spine whatsoever, lacking in any kind of intelligence or wit, and would probably be the worst PM from an Irish POV other than Braverman- who is so dim that she hasn’t a hope, even amongst Tories.

A truly abysmal crop of self-serving charlatans.

Sam Russell · 11-07-2022 5:51pm

Unfortunately not only are the candidates a truly abysmal crop of self-serving charlatans, so are the MPs voting for them.

Not much chance of any successful candidate bringing any good news for Ireland.

blackcard · 11-07-2022 8:09pm

So 20 MP's required for a candidate to go forward to the first ballot on Wednesday. Any candidate getting less than 30 votes in the ballot will be eliminated. That should thin out the field

blackcard · 11-07-2022 9:58pm

I think that you may get tactical voting in the ballots. Sunak seems to be the most popular amongst the MP's whilst Penny Morduant is most popular amongst the membership. His supporters amongst the MP's may vote for someone else who is not as popular with the membership for the second place

11-07-2022 10:03pm

If she can get through the first round, Kemi Badenoch is a dark-horse, for me.

Tory voters will love her anti-PC rhetoric.

Shelga · 12-07-2022 1:06pm

Patel out. Her as PM would have been truly awful. Hateful woman.

Sam Russell · 12-07-2022 1:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119326665#Comment_119326665

You could add a few names of hateful people.

amacca · 12-07-2022 1:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119326665#Comment_119326665

Thank the powers that be for small mercies at least.

cml387 · 12-07-2022 2:10pm

I just wonder that when it comes down to the nitty gritty, the Conservative membership will baulk at electing a non-white leader.

You can say that the front bench represents a range of ethnic minorities who presumably were selected originally by local party membership but when it comes to electing a PM..?

ancapailldorcha · 12-07-2022 2:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327054#Comment_119327054

That can be circumvented by having just one candidate. The party membership only come into play when the PCP narrow it down to two candidates.

cml387 · 12-07-2022 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327086#Comment_119327086

Sorry I don't understand. There will be two candidates presented to the membership for consideration. That was always the intention.

Strazdas · 12-07-2022 2:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119315370#Comment_119315370

Yes, Sunak was actually a Brexiteer in 2016 but he doesn't seem to share the right wing xenophobia / racism / Europhobia of some of his colleagues. I get the feeling he'd be quite okay on the Protocol.

Larbre34 · 12-07-2022 2:29pm

Ordinary Tories in kippy little English towns who wear Union Flag T-shirts and drink at the local Conservative Club are inherently and unmovably racist. I've seen it up close with in-laws of mine in middle England.

If it comes down to Sunak and Mordaunt, it'll be Mordaunt, or it'll be Truss or Tugendhat, completely irrespective of the support Sunak might have in the Parliamentary Party.

If it comes down to Sunak and Javid, or Zahawi, prepare to see minds blown 😂

(Neither Braverman nor Badenoch will get near the final two)

ancapailldorcha · 12-07-2022 2:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327118#Comment_119327118

We don't know that yet. In 2016, Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom were vying to be leader until Leadsom's absurd remarks about motherhood torpedoed her chances. May ran unopposed with no need for a vote. It's entirely possible that one of the final two could be bought off by the offer of the chancellorship for instance, nullifying the need for a vote.

cml387 · 12-07-2022 2:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119327156#Comment_119327156

They've thought of that. Apparently it's a condition of being in the race that you promise you won't pull out subsequently.

Next British PM

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