Watch market predictions

Ouch, what did you pay for your aquanaut?

I bought another U2, a proper SDR this time rather than my current decrepit mongrel. Full set 2018 on a bracelet with additional silicon strap.

Well yep! I know a few of my purchases were from easy money, not a crypto bro but I do dabble in that and stocks. A large part of my own trip through watch ownership was convincing myself that everything could be flipped on to the next in line if I changed my mind.

For a couple of watches, that was true and even profitable 😁 But! now stuff in the 1-5k tier is taking longer and longer to shift IME. An example I'll give is my Sinn 103 destro,it's been in Belfast since May with no serious interest. Plenty of other stuff there seems to be hanging around longer term now too.

Just had a look thru watchcharts for some of their recent infographics. The market isn't softening, it's passed that phase now IMO and is in decline outside of a few select brands and models, Look at the Pepsi market drop 😮

**Edit**

Just adding the AP chart to this as it seems the bubble is deflating rapidly rather than bursting but, that could still happen. The drop in the Blue RO points to that blue dial madness ratcheting back a little too maybe?

Pepsi now on adverts for €20k .It’s only 6 weeks ago that there was one up for €28k

Lads, pretty much all those watches had gone up what like 40-80% in the last 2 years? A comedown of 10-30% is only a minor correction in that light really? A 214270 grey market was €5.5k 2 years ago. €10-11k at the peak is ridiculous for a nice, but firmly entry level Rolex sports watch. Not many people paid that for one, I hope. Even €9k (as per those figures) for one is too much imho, we're not done with the correction yet I'd say.

And then there's the hype watches, Rolex Daytona (all of them), GMT Pepsi / Batman, Hulk, etc. and do I even need to mention almost anything AP / Patek sporty? A 6 figure sum for an Aquanaut is preposterous. Looks like a €25k tops watch to me of which most of that money would be for the name.

He describes 140 as the sweet spot to the client.

Was not your man Anthony selling watches and guaranteeing a buy back at the sale price??? Thats going to bite him (and he would like that).

40k loss on a speculation watch is not great but those Dyatonas were off the wall and everyone was saying it at the time, so a fool and their money.

Daytona is a unisex watch, its actually a lovely size, and if you look at the likes of Wahlberg he wears his collections of them very well, as does Ellen DeGeneres. The slimness of the movement and case for a chronograph, and the 40mm size make it a perennial favourite, and its likely to remain popular for a long time to come. I have handled a platinium one and there is something about the weight and feel of platinium that really gives it a rich feel, I would not however pay the extra over the white gold, but it is peek Daytona and that in a way is cool. Its worth exactly retail and thats where you would want to be into it. About 2 years ago these were going about 10k under retail on the secondary.

Behind a paywall. Presuming you have access to it, can you give us a summary of the article?

"Watcheco, an trade portal for used luxurious watches, reported that the worth of second-hand Rolex Submariners — a mannequin coveted by connoisseurs and collectors — had fallen 46 per cent since March"

Subs have fallen by 46%? I simply don't believe that. I watched Paul Thorpe interview Jonathan Gilbert (Edinburgh watch company) last night, I find him a trustworthy insider. He says that of course the super overhyped likes of Pateks and APs have fallen off a cliff, but bread and butter stuff like stainless steel subs have come down a bit but are still up significantly from a year or two ago. He is still buying (but carefully now and offering less than before, not touching any hype watches) and he is still selling (for a bit less than before the peak at the start of the year)

Yep that sounds like an excellent valuation method! Pity it takes a while before WF gets back to you. Alternatively, try and find the cheapest version of your Rolex steel sport watch in Europe at any grey market dealer and then deduct 15% or so, is what you could expect to sell to the trade for. Private sale price is of course higher. Or have a look at the cheapest version in Europe on C24 and deduct a healthy discount. Or look at what a similar watch recently sold for on TZ. Or best do all 4 of the above and omit any outlier value and average the rest

Or just put it up on adverts.ie at a slightly inflated price and see if anyone bites 😂

WF can be very fast when there is money in it for them. On a direct sale to them however, my experience is that they are extremely slow with a final valuation after sending the watch to them. And when I want a valuation, I want it right now, not next day or next week. I'm a tad impatient 😂