Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

Akrasia · 14-07-2022 11:04am

Unfortunately, it won't be a once in a lifetime event. Once the record is broken, we'll be seeing this record creeping up every few years as climate change takes its toll

Max tenps 32c 2006, 32c 2018, possibly 33+c 2022

Gaoth Laidir · 14-07-2022 11:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335716#Comment_119335716

33.3 °C 1887...

bad2thebone · 14-07-2022 11:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335716#Comment_119335716

The Atlantic ocean off Clare is like tepid warm water at the moment, 16 Celsius the other day, the upper water in my local limestone lake Lough Bunny near Crusheen is like swimming pool.

hunter2000 · 14-07-2022 11:10am

I’m off to the beach, factor 50 and a box of Carlsberg

pad199207 · 14-07-2022 11:15am

GFS looking hot for Monday!

Denny61 · 14-07-2022 11:23am

This is never going to be a once in a lifetime experience or event ..as some have suggested ..a small matter of global warming. So every few years records might be passed .then it just becomes the norm

Gonzo · 14-07-2022 11:41am

GFS now going for widespread 32C across the Limerick/Clare inland regions.

IF the above verifies and Shannon Airport reaches somewhere an air temperature close to 33.0C then that reading with the tarmac and all that could push the result to about 34C.

If we get a 32C in Meath and another 32C at Shannon, the Shannon result is bound to be higher in the end.

John.Icy · 14-07-2022 11:51am

The random 32 over Dublin. lol

GFS taking into account the Phoenix Park heat trap eh.

Gonzo · 14-07-2022 11:51am

GEM 6z now showing 33C for Meath on Monday.

The high resolution UKV Model going for widespread 34C across the midlands.

This mornings runs are the hottest I've seen yet, IF we get any more upgrades we could be potentially looking at 35C somewhere but instead of jumping ahead of ourselves we have to try and keep our feet on the ground. Regardless Monday is going to be hot hot hot.

ascophyllum · 14-07-2022 12:06pm

Looking back in the FI thread, Gonzo first noticed signs of this around the 23rd of June! And then more clearly around the 29th June, crazy the models are that good that they can spot something like this and it actually verifies.

On another note, a Met Eireann meteorologist on Pat Kenny Show today said this is a consequence of climate change; the temperature of this airmass is totally normal over the Sahara, and then if there is a pressure system which funnells it north, where else can it go? And then a weak low over Biscay will temporarily advect it over Ireland. Would this low have gone elsewhere if there were no humans around? There's no evidence of that. As soon as the Atlantic gets in temps will fall back to normal values instantly.

whippet · 14-07-2022 12:14pm

I'm glad I'm living by the east coast - so will have some relief from the heat further inland - every positive has a negative in that my quite little beach will be over run with day trippers !

Gonzo · 14-07-2022 12:31pm

A few posts here about this upcoming spell being caused by climate change. It has nothing whatsoever got to do with climate change or what's happening in India or other places half way around the world. This upcoming mini hot spell is being caused by a perfect alignment of low pressures, particularly the one west of Portugal and another one over Scandinavia. This is allowing the furance doors to open from Algeria/Morocco and funnelling that heat directly north up through the interior oven of Spain and Ireland just happens to be getting a direct hit this time around.

9 times out of 10 these plumes go north as far as western France and then swing north-eastwards over central and southeastern areas of the UK and usually avoids Ireland completely as we nearly always have a trailing trough sitting just to our west or over us. We usually have to rely on the Azores high to sit over us for about a week in order to get temperatures close to 30C. This upcoming spell of weather is quite different to the typical azores high pattern and everything hinges on that low west of Portugal being in perfect alignment to allow this heat over Ireland. It is also this low west of Portugal which will drift northwards and perhaps enter Irish airspace and cuase a possible quick and thundery breakdown on Tuesday and after that we are back to fairly standard conditions.

pauldry · 14-07-2022 1:24pm

Donegal is the place to be Monday if ya don't like heat. Only 17c on the NW tip. Sligo is 26c now and not 29c as per earlier runs it's hard to warm up land that has been wet and 15c most of Summer. Drier south has much more chance of getting over 30c.

Last year was a much warmer Summer in the NW than 2022 so we got over 30c

14-07-2022 1:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336196#Comment_119336196

I think the halfway house point between people exclusively blaming this on climate change and those saying it has nothing to do with it is, this upcoming pattern/weather has nothing to do with climate change however in a warmer world the air that travels here could be a degree or so warmer when it reaches Ireland than it would be without climate change as the regions it coming from are getting warmer on average.

Cluedo Monopoly · 14-07-2022 1:51pm

Will the Low pressures associated with this heat blast from the south mean that it will be breezy on Sunday-Tuesday?

Supercell · 14-07-2022 1:52pm

Dare I say it?, hope this goes the way of our usual winter beast from the east scenarios! Dont want a Winter 2010 please this weekend! Thank god we are near the coast here and hopefully a decent sea breeze will take the edge of it.

We were in a caravan in Galway last summer during the hot spell, was blessed relief to get on the boat to Inis Oirr to get away from it one day. Mind you the fireworks at the end of it heard from inside a caravan were mega!

WJL · 14-07-2022 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336196#Comment_119336196

Good post. I laugh when weather gets confused with climate.

By the rationale that the coming weather is climate change related, climate change peaked in 1887!

tiegan · 14-07-2022 2:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334706#Comment_119334706

Sod's law after you upgraded your temps in the forecast comp!! You left me hanging out on my own there at the bottom of the list :)

pauldry · 14-07-2022 2:08pm

The steering low off Portugal has started to move its clouds slowly Northwards. Imagine it got here by Sunday and ruined it all. But all the weather forecasts say it won't so I'm not worried.

Reversal · 14-07-2022 2:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335986#Comment_119335986

Dublin will see an element of the Foehn effect with the winds being pretty much out of the south off the hills, that and the heat island effect probably will raise temps a touch higher than they would be otherwise.

Denny61 · 14-07-2022 2:13pm

Jesus hre in tipperary..its over cast..a fresh breeze. And we thinking of lighting the stove ..so much for hot weather..

Supercell · 14-07-2022 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336706#Comment_119336706

If this has any SSW to it on Sunday and Mon with clear skies you could well be right, that's where the records could fall (in Dublin Phoenix Park or Casement perhaps). If the sea breeze holds off long enough. There's a reason the Irish record has stood for so long, really needs absolutely perfect synoptics.

Gonzo · 14-07-2022 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336526#Comment_119336526

I forgot to mention in my original post that another reason why temperatures may be that much higher this time around, apart from the perfect alignment of those low pressures opening the furness door. Throughout the month of June the battle between the North Atlantic/Greenland lows that provided us a fairly crap June ended up bottling the heat across much of Spain and the central Med for weeks on end. The sea surface temperature anomalies are quite extreme at the moment in the Med as that heat had nowhere to go for over a month. In recent weeks the Bay of Biscay has warmed up alot and this warmer than average anomaly is already pushing into Ireland and the UK, particularly off Cork and Waterford and up to Wicklow. The sea surface temperature by Sunday on our south coast and extending up through the Irish sea could get close to 20C, they are currently around 17 to 18C. They are normally around 15C or 16C at best during the height of summer. These very hot upper air temperatures are not going to get moderated as much as in previous years by the 1000km+ sea track between Cork and Bilbao, so that reason alone could cause temperatures to be a degree or so higher.

Danno · 14-07-2022 2:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336706#Comment_119336706

If folks want to blame climate change - then this is the closest to reality of it! A man-made concrete city of the geographical footprint that Dublin is (low-rise and spread out) and it sitting north of highland terrain with a southerly airflow will definitely alter the weather for immediate areas north of the city in particular.

So yes - mankind changing the weather through altering the landscape (such as buildings, concrete, etc...) is a thing.

Similarly, the area southwest of Nenagh gets quite nasty hailstorms - so much so that the TII have an average speed zone there now to improve safety - the sprawl of Limerick City is likely giving rise to heavier hail fall along that part of the M7. Ditto for a car park in Shannon Airport.

Bottom line is - man changes land use, the weather reacts.

As for the occurrences of 30+ in Ireland there were many between 1850 and 1890.

GalwayGaillimh · 14-07-2022 2:39pm

32 Degrees sweet jesus

ascophyllum · 14-07-2022 2:40pm

That is interesting, I remember a few notable hail showers on the motorway just east of Galway - same effect? Does the heat generated by a city give an airmass a little lift as it passes over?

Storm 10 · 14-07-2022 2:41pm

There will be a lot of egg on de faces if this does not come off Cobra meeting in London about this heat coming in

murfo · 14-07-2022 2:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336729#Comment_119336729

That's why it's crucial to moderate your expectations by reading the thread title, nothing much changing until Saturday. Light her up

Meteorite58 · 14-07-2022 3:15pm

Very hot charts from ICON, it might overdo the wind speeds but would think the temperatures if anything would err on the side of being conservative or even slightly underplay it at times. Better start bringing in the roads!

Going to be some warm night to follow.

Akrasia · 14-07-2022 3:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119336807#Comment_119336807

Its funny that you accept that building a car park can affect the local climate, but are skeptical about the impact of pumping hundreds of billions of tonnes of a greenhouse gas into our atmosphere

Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

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