Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

I think the record will go at casement due to the mentioned factors above all coming together ive gone for a 34 at casement on the flash competition

There are only particular circumstances that yield Föhn warming and this would not be one unless there's a lot of low cloud associated with it (sea fog, for example). Air passing over a mountain and down the other side does not change its net temperature unless it's lost liquid water out of it in the form of precipitation.

There can be Föhn occurences due to isentropic draw-down, if there's a strong increase in wind with height, but this seems unlikely too. Any heat over Sunday/Monday will rely on clear skies and relatively light surface winds to minimise vertical mixing out. Normally we would need several days of cumulative heating to reach these highs, but the warmer upper air will battle to counteract vertical mixing. Still a lot to get right with this situation. We don't want to see streams of Ac or As coming up from the southeast, though to see so would indicate a chance of thunderstorms. A lot of moving parts to be oiled yet.

Is it generally accepted that temperatures recorded in the late 1800s were accurate? Presumably there are far more sophisticated methods of doing it now? Not trying to cast doubt on any readings, just curious about it.

Of course they're reliable, because the same long-term data are used to set the pre-industrial baseline against which current temperatures are compared. ;-) If it's good for the goose it's good for the gander...

There was a good link to a ukweatherworld post outlining the context of the Kilkenny record in relation to other temperatures at other stations at the time and it seems a legitimate record. It's a good few pages back I think, or maybe on another thread.

It looks like 45.1 °C is going to be the highest in Spain today. Here are the past few days' maxima there.

Sunday 10th: 43.2 °C (Olivenza, Badajoz, 18:00)

Monday 11th: Candeleda, Ávila, 18:10)

Tuesday 12th: 43.9 °C (Mérida, Badajoz, 17:40)

Wednesday 13th: 45.7 °C (Almonte, Huelva, 17:30)

EDIT: Today (updated 19:42 local): 45.1 °C (Candeleda, Ávila, 16:20).

Sorry, I wasn't implying you had said it but I've heard it already several times. It's peak solar isolation in the northern hemisphere, so the cut-off low coincides perfectly to line up these two holes in the cheese. It's then down to if you think that extra CO2 in the air this week has made the temperatures on the ground higher co.pared to 50 years ago.

You're implying that a global temp anomaly over 20 years would mean the temp would only be up to 0.6º higher in Ireland on a few days (and anywhere else I presume).

I'm not going to explain how means and averages etc. work when dealing with huge amounts of data.

I agree that not every event should be attributed to GW. I mean, last year I did complain to myself when a Green Party TD talked about the consequences of GW because the temp was going to reach 25 for a few days!

However some of the explanations on here for why the upcoming record-breaking temps aren't GW seem a bit ridiculous. We're clearly in a climate crisis and a warming planet. And it's disappointing to see so many climate change deniers on what's supposed to be a scientific topic.

Also, we're seeing 30º breached every second year in Ireland now it seems when it used to be once a decade.

Lads stop having a go at each other, who cares, stick on topic please or you could be removed