FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

I cant answer and will let others better qualified confirm

but by way of some positive news, MTs morning forecast mentions nice warm weather for Saturday again, highs 21-24!

How is next week looking guys? thanks.

Some serious eye candy showing up on the 6z GFS from 312h onwards, massive high and temperatures in the mid twenties. Haven’t been paying as close attention as others, but I feel like the end of the first week in August has been raised for a few days as a potential warm spell redux so one to watch!

They hold some weight for reasons I mentioned last week in the summer thread when I said our next best chance of a push of high pressure from the Azores is through the second week of August based on the usual teleconnections looked at to give hints of what could be ahead in the longer range. Could be even earlier than that going by current output but expectations firmly grounded for now.

There seems to be a signal across all models for some kind of ridge to build up from the southwest around 4th-6th August. Yesterday this ridge on modelling seemed to have more of a foothold with this morning's runs being more transient but followed by another ridge after a couple of days of Atlantic influence again. This morning is more in line with what I'd expect.

The prospect for a ridge from the Azores is based on what goes on in the tropics as the MJO is set to go into a similar phase to that we seen in mid-July. In July, we were kind of unlucky the ridge never gained a foothold to give more prolonged sunny days as it tended to be just to our west allowing in cloudy but warm tropical maritime fed northwesterlies or far to our east which allowed the exceptional heat to build and peak on 18th/19th. I suspect similar will occur in August at this current lead time unless we see a more sustained push of high pressure, it seems to be that kind of summer (not great for the north and west where it has been very poor). *Cue the pig scutter comments from Mayo* There continues to be a large residue of exceptionally hot air to the south and sea surface temperatures remain well above average which would limit modification. If this heads in our direction, I don't see any reason not to think England will reach the high 30s again and eastern parts of Ireland would reach near 30C provided the wind direction is southerly offshore. However, suspect the airmass won't be quite as ridiculous as July which was unprecedented.

There is the possibility that the ridge may build over Scandinavia which would usher in easterly winds. Scandinavian highs in August can be hit or miss. They can give fog to eastern coasts or countrywide warmth and sunshine. As recent as August 2020 featured a Scandi High but the airmass was very unstable and humid so much of the country seen a lot of cloud, especially in the east. Meanwhile, one of our warmest and sunniest on record August 1947 (only bettered by August 1995) also featured a Scandi High.

I am sick of being disappointed by August as a summer month that I just have zero expectations for it now. Late August last year was fabulous until final few days but much of the month had been usual August muck. Come on weather gods, after the poor May to July, I think the north especially deserve a lovely August!

No changes this morning, everything remains as in the posts above. Some rain to come in the days ahead, particularly around Monday/Tuesday time then a ridge builds in with a relatively cool airmass embedded followed by a warming trend as first ridge weakens and a renewed push from the Azores arrives. Very dry once the next week is out of the way. The midnight GEFS show this perfectly.

Still looks largely settled on model runs this morning dominated by high pressure but GFS 0z was another warm one similar to yesterday's runs whilst the 06z falls more in line with the ECM and the warm air takes a while to get here with the anticyclone tending to stay more out west ridging into Ireland. GEFS 0z were solidly warm and dry after the initial northerly toppler (bit strange to say those two words in summer).

The ECM looks decidedly cool and dry as far as it goes with an Atlantic ridge rather than a central based anticyclone over Ireland. As a result, there would be the threat of cloud and showery conditions into the north and east.

GEM still looks very warm and dry by Monday 8th as it did yesterday.

UKMO/ICON go as far as Saturday, both looking cool and settled by then.

Looks like Met É is seeing the settled weather coming as stated in their extended outlook this morning:

"FURTHER OUTLOOK: Current indications suggest that high pressure will slowly build from midweek onwards, leading to mostly dry and settled conditions."

Nothing mentioned here about the temperature though, how quick will the warmth build or will the cool conditions stay for a little bit as the ECM has been saying?

Been a wobble last night and this morning... the ECM continues to act strange and different from other models. Whilst it has fallen in line with other models for this weekend into next week as with the progression of the anticyclone, unlike the GFS it is tending to show retrogression of the high again towards mid-week and later next week. The GFS shows the opposite happening and up until this morning's 0z, the GEM too. The GEM has shown a more ECM solution with a northwesterly flow re-establishing by Wednesday 10th and the high dramatically weakening quick.

ECM ensembles are much more conservative with the level of warmth being on supply compared to the GEFS whilst the operational being on the cooler end. The Met seem to favour the EC here with high teens/low 20s early next week.

More runs needed.

Don't think the "it's August" matters really as it might as well have been August since May of how frequent westerly winds have been!

Also before it's gone, might as well archive (don't take as gospel, pure deep extended stuff here) this GFS 18z run in FI from last night.

We are in a dryer than normal phase certainly even in the Northwest where Monday was the wettest day in a while there was only 11mm of rain.

This coming week will likely be the best of the Summer nationwide and even the Northwest is getting sun in between brief mists mainly overnight and in the morning.

Week 3 is certainly cooler and fresher. If you look at the weather for all of 2022 so far the lows and rain have been brief and benign weather has dominated even if windy at times. A few warm spells too but rainfall is low.

Even in Sligo the river is low and parts of grass is yellow.