I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

j@utis · 15-07-2022 3:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119339808#Comment_119339808

I only got back from work, and just got to sit down to look at it. I really dunno here, it can go either way, Regal World is in the stronger race today but she's feather weight incl jock's allowance, proven in dist 7-9f, this is stronger race and I really don't like "seller" "seller" in her form.

First time visor might do the trick for Jumhoor but I'm far from convinced. GL to all baking him. The other plus for Jumhoor is that this is his first race in class6. I think he's gonna take the lead, based on his last race record - "prominent".

j@utis · 15-07-2022 4:16pm

6:47 Ham - Motashaweq 5/2, won a novice over CD two weeks ago, it looked good, he didn't need much encouragement from the same jockey who's in the saddle today, he might be able to take the advantage of lowly opening mark. Ventura Flame has a strong CD form but she's back on career high mark of 80 that she hasn't hit since her 2019 win. I'm not analyzing others, I can't be bothered tbh 🤣 no CD form - you're out.

j@utis · 15-07-2022 4:55pm

20:54 Ponte - Ghathanfar shortie shorts - but based on his last too performances he's on track to hat-trick 🤣 I wouldn't be surprised if he makes all again. Rambuso Creek is in my notebook for not getting a clear run lto and he's the main danger imho, maybe a cheeky f'cast on these two...

j@utis · 15-07-2022 4:55pm

Where's leffee today? @[Deleted User]

j@utis · 15-07-2022 7:20pm

Not a good start 😊 I'm tired after work, not looking for more.

j@utis · 15-07-2022 7:23pm

It's looks like there won't be any racing on Monday & Tuesday due to heatwave, which is a good decision. We need a break here too 😜

j@utis · 15-07-2022 9:08pm

No luck today with those two and not much time to look at horses tomorrow. Have fun lads, and GL.

Count Dracula · 16-07-2022 2:26pm

Two hours past the midday alcohol curfew and I have managed to avoid a drop, thus far.

It looks gorgeous on the Curragh, I can almost smell it. I hope they are getting a cool breeze.

I am having some ew bets on horsies that I feel may have been overlooked.

Newbury 2.56 - Method - I thought he prepped well over an inadequate 5f's at Sandown two weeks back. Firm ground a positive and at 33's Martyn Meade may be ready to pull the trigger on this 4 yr old. 4 places.

Market Rasen 3.14 Rapid Response - the papers give her no chance and I love when this happens. Jessica getting winners and interesting this mare gets sent to Lincolnshire with the Galway festival less than 2 weeks away. I got a wopping great big 40's this morning.

The Oaks looks a real head scratcher. I actually settled on a win only bet on Fennela who must be somewhat fancied by her trainer who also runs the favourite. She either scoots up or comes last, win only.

I am selling full size Dart Board effigies of Mick Fitzgerald if anyone is interested, pm me please for further details. I have ordered a new set of Brian Gleeson's, obviously these have proved extremely popular ,so, there is a minor production delay, your patience is appreciated

Konny Rool · 16-07-2022 6:07pm

ALETHIOMETER 7.30 Haydock 2/1

Is able to win a 7f race on turf - jolly Spangled Mac 8/11 is a bit short, but is the one, it seems, to beat. Maybe the jockey Connor Beasley will try make all on the second favourite here as there's not a lot of obvious pace on in this 4 runner race

Konny Rool · 16-07-2022 11:58pm

No good Alethiometer; was last of four.

Had a look at Redcar and have an opinion on one race there - Two ew pokes, two place lay hopefuls, and a couple 'worth a mention' , although I'll not be backing them particular two.

Redcar 4.25

CLOTHERHOLME 11/2 EACH WAY.. He's a decent price is the topweight in this. Could well win here. Has only run over a mile about four times [tomorrow's race is 9furlongs] and ran well on most of them runs. He come a staying on 5th of nine lto over 7fs at Musselburgh. Looks in good fettle; but it's his 2nd last run I'm looking at here. It was at Beverley over 8 1/2f and he won from a hold-up ride. A replication of that run should see him hopefully go very close here.

SKEDADDLED 17/2 EACH WAY... Not as solid claims as the above pick (although, tbf, neither of them are proven stayers at the trip) but there aint a lot in this field that look even resemble a ''place banker' . Showed big improvement lto at the course over a mile, when staying on into 3rd position of seven. Johnny Peate, a decent 5lb claimer, was on board that day (Phil Dennis takes the mount this time) but tomorrow Johnny rides Iron Sheriff 7s for Roger Fell. Am not reading a lot into jockey bookings, but I reckon Iron Sheriff might want slightly further, or softer ground even. Not one for maximum faith, but SKEDADDLED will do me here as a second pick.

Premiership is 11/4 jolly here; but not a lot to go on as far as staying goes. Came third at the course lto over seven. Afaic he's a non-stayer - until proven otherwise - and I'll consider him for 3/4 place lays if he's a similar price tomorrow.

Mac Ailey, at around 10/3 generally, is capable of going close at the trip; but I've a feeling he might not want firm in the description to be seen to best effect. Like Premiership, I'll wait until tomorrow to see what the lie of the land is. If he's towards the top of the market, then I'll likely go 3/4 place lay on.

Vilolette Szabo 18s is worth a mention. 9furlongs looks like it might be a bit sharp, but if Faye can get a tune out of this 5yr old mare, then Violette Szabo can be involved at the finish. The aforementioned Iron Sheriff is another with decent claims, but, like Violette Szabo, the trip looks a bit sharp. Looks an unlikely winner, but will hopefully thwart the current top two in the betting for the minor honours.

GL

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 1:37am

12.00 Stratford

Jolly Hillview 8/11 has plenty weight here with 12-2 on his back. He's won five of his last seven races so is certainly in form (that's on the +side, or the minus side if one wants to oppose Sean Bowen's mount :pac) Going is good, but he's never raced on good to firm (should the ground harden, and it might).. Both Aye Aye Charlie and the out of form Presenting Yeats are capable of making this a test. His C/D win [Hillview] was a Class 4 - this a Class 3 - which saw him carry 11-4, and that race was ran in a slow enough time. Will go lay here @ ~ 10/11, and chanced putting up 2 place lay @ ~ 2/7

Will chance win on PRESENTING YEATS 6/1. He's not the most straightforward, and is a bit out of form too. Bottom weight of 10-2 minus the jockey Tristan Durrell's 7lbs would give this horse a fair chance here. Am hoping he gets into a good rhythm early in this, and possibly lead. PY is a course winner from August 2020 in a bumper. Presenting Yeats is also a three times winner at or around 3m2f, with all three on good to firm going, and at three separate courses (Her, War & NA)

Christian Williams 10yr old and 2nd fav Aye Aye Charlie ~ 2/1 can run a good race, but I feel he falls a bit short here. Similar can be said for Adrian Wintle's Ennistown ~ 15/2 who's a 12yr old, but can boast a 2nd place finish over C/D from his most recent run.

If the weight/ground etc does for the jolly, then all his three competitors are capable of running a race that can see them finish in front of Hillview. Think a 2 place lay on the fav mayn't be a bad play here for those on the exchanges, and/or a small combination forecast on the three 'outsiders'

Gd Luck

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 4:40am

4.30 Curragh

AP O'Brien's 6/5 fav Over The Rainbow can go well on her 2nd ever run and improve on her 2nd over C/D last month, but is very short @ 6/5.

Not so sure about JP Murtagh's Nemean 5/1 going up in trip here.

Hard to make solid cases for most of these, as a couple are unraced and Weld's Monarch's Brae & AP O'Brien's Engagement Ring - both around 9/1 - have only one run apiece, and tis hard to make a case for either on each of their single runs. Paul Nolan's Winterscape ~ 25s is by Frankel, and it might be worth keeping an eye on this unraced 3yr old gelding here.

Pen landed on Joey's NUSRET 7/2; this Golden Horn colt is very experienced with four races behind him, and is very consistent too with one third placing and has come second the other three times. He came 2nd over 12fs lto at Limerick on Good to firm, and perhaps hit the front to soon then. That was his first attempt at the mile and a half trip, and that run shows he stays and also likes good ground. Have a few bets done here: Nusret win 7/2 , w/o the fav @ 15/8 and 2 'Insurebets' @ 5/2 placed in first two, and 15/8 for the first three.

Have also done a small win bet on WINTERSCAPE @ ~ 25s on the offchance.

I think Nusret goes off at 11/4 or shorter for this maiden.

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 5:20am

5.16 Tipperary

WP Mullins 10/11 fav We'llhavewan is having his first run in a chase. The 7yr old gelding was owned, trained & bred by Timothy Townend, and now has a different owner also, upon having his first run for Willie. He showed massive improvement when winning his second last race when he prevailed over 2m at Thurles on soft, and followed that up with a comfortable win at Limerick over further and on better ground.

He's sired by Imperial Monarch (b 2009) and I don't see much data on his progeny from over the larger obstacles.

Odds on is very skimpy, as this horse has never jumped a fence in public before (just the one poor PtP run, which saw him pulled up on heavy - that was back in 2020 and well before his current rich vein of form, but still, he's less than evens!) have tried to lay him for the places here.

Plenty in this that can be given chances and I've backed a few e/w here: CHARLIE SIRINGO 9/1 , FRONTIER GENERAL 8/1 , MUTUAL RESPECT 6/1 & FAMOUS ESCAPE 13/2

GL everybody 😊

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 10:46am

5.30 Curragh * "The Tell Yer Mates Ya Solved The Unknown Jockeys Charity Race At The Curragh H'cap (if ya manage to back it that is :pac) And #'Reverse-Engineer' Your Bullshít As To Why Ya Did So"

#reasons could be : trainer (likes to get one for one of his mates/relations) / jockey (ya 'heard word' that the pilot was reasonably capable / horse (1. Goes well for a - apprentice/novice etc 2. After race is over look for 1 or 2 'pieces of form' what would have given it a chance/squeak)

* not the actual name of the race 😛

For small stakes have picked 4 ew against the field,,,, Don't know about all books, but BF going four places a fifth (n/o on the exchange however)

THE MOUSE DOCTOR 10/1 , THE TRUANT 33/1 , VERMILION CLIFFS 12/1, BAMBEANO 33/1

GL

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 12:39pm

Looks like Windsor and Beverley are off tomorrow - .just like what a prominent poster on here said; and am basing that on the fact there doesn't appear to be any 'final declarations' in either of those two flat meets, ie too many horses in each race, plus not all the horses have a declared jockey.

On the other hand, the flat meeting at Ayr appears to be going ahead, as well as the jumps fixture at Cartmel

As far as Tuesday goes, it's pretty conclusive Southwell is called off, with Musselburgh looking like it's going ahead (fair play to the Scots :pac: ) ,,, a bit early, I reckon, to know about the two AW meets: Wolves & Chelly; they're evening meets, so perhaps it's a bit early in the day for to see them resemble a proper racecard, ie 'too many' horses and not all of them have declared jocks ala Bev and Wdr tomorrow.

j@utis · 17-07-2022 3:31pm

I think favorite can take 3:50 in Redcar, some very good form lines in his novice races.

j@utis · 17-07-2022 3:49pm

Tomorrow Ayr flat racing is still on to keep us entertained.

There was a good one missed in Redcar earlier, 2nd race, if you watch his previous run, you'd defo want your money on it nto; I was at work in the morning, no time to play.

j@utis · 17-07-2022 4:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119349162#Comment_119349162

Outsider beats the fav. Great. No more for me for today. I'm not in the mood to analyse 0-55 affair next, or the two horses race after...

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 4:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119347835#Comment_119347835

4.30 Curragh

Pen landed on Joey's NUSRET 7/2

Have a few bets done here: Nusret win 7/2 , w/o the fav @ 15/8 and 2 'Insurebets' @ 5/2 placed in first two, and 15/8 for the first three.

I think Nusret goes off at 11/4 or shorter for this maiden.

WINS @ 9/4 😁

That'll do !!

j@utis · 17-07-2022 7:41pm

You seemed to have all bases covered there, Konny! WD with the winner, 9/4 is juicy enough, alright.

Konny Rool · 17-07-2022 8:02pm

Monday 18 July 2022

"Young Danny Tudhope Day???"

7.50

Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival Handicap (Class 6) 3-y-o plus of £6,500.00 . 7f. 96yds.

1st - £3,186.00 2nd - £1,496.00 3rd - £748.00 4th - £374.00 5th - £300.00 6th - £300.00

No

Form

Horse

Age Weight

Trainer

Jockey

OR

1

645/420

Pontius5

4 10-2

Charles Hills

55

2

1233-88

Bearwith18

4 10-1

Harriet Bethell

Cam Hardie

54

3

354462

How Bizarre13 c1 d2

7 10-1

Liam Bailey

D Tudhope

54

4

402420

Hachert14 d2

5 9-13

Jennie Candlish

52

5

549-232

Desert Dream13 d1 bf

8 9-13

Seb Spencer

Ryan Sexton(5)

52

6

7909-r6

Big Muddy17

5 9-13

Seb Spencer

5

Am thinking outside the box from the left-field possy here. Young Daniel, it would appear, were down to ride How Bizarre in the 7.50 Beverley. How Bizarre were towards top of handicap in the 'longlist' and likely he'd have made the decs - had racing being going ahead.

Alas, there is no racing at Beverley, but Daniel somehow manages to get three rides in Ayrshire venue.

I shall do all three of Danny's mounts, absent study, as I believe whatever reason/s that led Daniel to 'keep his hand in' could possibly be most serendipitous, nay 'bizarre'

That's the logic here.

Here be the picks:

Ayr

2.25 FEEL THE NEED 3/1

4.10 BERNARDO O'REILLY 14/1

5.15 STAR SHIELD 6/1

singles + ew trixie

Gl yall

j@utis · 17-07-2022 9:09pm

I'm on the same in 2:25, GL to us 😅 I'll have a look at 4:10 later, i.e. tomorrow morning.

18-07-2022 9:33am

Morning all 😊

1.00 Cartmel

3 EW picks here

Two four year olds:

FOREVER FORWARD 5/1

OLYMPUS 11/1

&

DAN GUN 9/1

Such a poor/hard/tricky race, it's too much like hard work to do any kinda writee upee here, but Stand On Me, at least two of these'll still be in solid contention 5fs out in this 2m 6f 31yds hurdles race of the Class 5 varieteé 😄. Some money for current 7/2 fav Ange Endormi on his 2nd run for Mrs Butterworth, but I can't see it based on his hurdles runs for past connections on good ground - a good 2nd lto over C/D, but that was on softish going. I apologise in advance if Barbara's Beast wins here, but I just cannae have Ange Endormi, but at least the price contraction is pushing out others to favourable prices.

I was motivated - I thought I'd found a race worth studying, and that I would be able to make cases solid for a few of these, but it proved difficult. I wasn't gonna let me study go to waste tho, so that's what I didn't do 🤣

GL

j@utis · 18-07-2022 11:41am

Morning, leff, welcome back! Now off to solve Ayr 4:10! We're waiting (in)patiently.

j@utis · 18-07-2022 12:59pm

Right, this what I think (Ayr 4:10 Cl3 6f): Quest For Fun is a non-runner now, but still we've got 4 left that met here lto. I think the winner is gonna come from the top 5 or 6 in betting, PP is paying 4 places.

Aberama Gold - was only beaten by a head over CD lto, raced separately from the pack on the stands side with Summer Sands in tow. Today the field is bigger and he might get some cover from Black Friday & Toussarok who like race prominently too. He had wind op back in February and ran 4 good races out of 5 since. I think he's got a good chance but he's been raced 3lb for the last effort and he's the top weight here today.

Call Me Ginger - 3rd here lto, now he's got a 3lb pull with Aberama Gold, he won a cl2 here last season off the same mark of 83.

Jordon Electrics - seems to be progressive albeit a 6yo, he's got up to OR 77 from 65 last year, he's been very consistent lately but doesn't really have class 3 or higher form.

Snash - won class 3 in Newcastle last year OR 94, but that's a/w. Raced in higher classes or unsuitable distances the bring rating down, cheekpieces on and bang, wins in Thirsk two races ago, not so good lto in York, says "hampered", I even watched the race, I don't see much "hampering" there, I don't have strong feelings about this one 🤣 he's drawn low which is appearantly not so good in this case.

Summer Sands - low mileage for 5yo, huge breaks in between races that indicates about problems in training this one, but he's on career low mark now and can be dangerous...

So, yeah, an hour later, I still have no clue which one has got the edge here.

j@utis · 18-07-2022 1:11pm

What's really annoying on ATR website, particularly in the race cards, is that when you have a note on the horse, that little "binoculars" icon doesn't change the color. You have to go looking for your notes, waste of time.

18-07-2022 1:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352171#Comment_119352171

No joy there - quit while I'm behind 🙂 Like Ann Widdecombe, I'm Off !!

good luck with yer picks folks ☺️

j@utis · 18-07-2022 3:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119350733#Comment_119350733

Ka-ching! for the first one. Now off to lose it on 4:10 race 🤣 I settled with Call Me Ginger... GL.

18-07-2022 3:14pm

We'll draw line thru today, and, like them folk in "Roots" , I'll "Go On" , and look to t'future 😄

Wednesday 20th July 2022

Southwell: Standard to slow

2.20

Furtado could be "Doing a Prescott" here with topweight Wallaroo, who sports the 1st time ts and bl for first time.. hard to fancy on known form obviously, so will leave off..

Wallaroo ~ 7/2 , who's in first time h'cap might go forwards here, like in his three previous races at distances various,,,, Sociologist is also a likely leader I'd imagine...

Janus ~ 3/1 fav , or 'Hugh' / 'Samantha' as he may be referred to by connections luuks a non-stayer here; that is based on the 7yr old's 6 or so previous runs on the AW over this trip (altho those were all on the Poly at Kempton & Lingfield, and tbf he weren't beaten too far on a few occasions) , but he aint never ran at this trip on Tapeta,, not for me, and I wouldn't be gerrin involved at prices shorteeus, but I were wronk aboot Mrs B's horse at Cartmel today, so pay me no nevermind if yis have an alternate opinion on Simon Hodgson's ballless son of Rock Of Gibraltar.

The aforementioned Sociologist ~ 9/2 is perfectly berthed in stall 2 for a mekk all bid, which is his métier.. i'll better try to find oot how ye exchanges work, nd try work out how ta dee a 'lay in-running' for win/place/s bet for/on Scott Dixon's ballless 7yr old son of Sociery Rock 😂

Thermal ~ 7/1 would be a befitting winner for times we're avin' on 'er first run for Kevin Frost ,,, Thermal / Frost hehehe ,, tune into SSR to hear puns various 😁 She has one win over the 1m & half trip from 'er days with Ryan & Hayley's dad, Gary - that were on soft on turf at Lingers,,, not much 'relevant' form on Tapeta, but she aint never did much at or about 12fs on the all weather overall,, no for me, but I'm doing no more to put yis off - least til I puts up a decent priced winner nd i can afford meself t'luxury of bullishishness

Urban Forest ~ 8/1 is another likely pacesetter and has a good draw in four,, yet to win in thirteen starts, but this'll be his first go on the surface,, hard to fancy

hard to fancy also is the ~ 16/1 shot Dwyfran on all known form on her 6th ever career start aged five,, was with Dave Loffnin (out of respect for any Aussies what might be chooned intee thread 😃 & fair play to Young Cameron Smith on winning Scowtish Open,, " '4 shot lead' ? - Whatcha on about 😁 ? " )for the first of those and is now under care of Stuart Williams - still in t'same ohhhnership as when she were with Loughnane,, it's a 'no' from me ats..

Like Thermal, Dream Point ~ 8/1 is another mare who can easily have a line drawn thru her on racecard, BUT, she has a proper jock on board for first time in long time, and sports a first-time visor which may help with ridding her of her affliction of tardiness from t'gates,, merits another luuk laterer doors methinks, but atm she's not for me is this unruly mare..,, she has won before tho in t'month of July - twice actually, as both her wins come in July (one in Ballinrobe and t'other at Catterick),, a lorra lorra ??s but i can't be ruling out this birthing animal

The Pix/'Picks' if ya wanna be correctical 😂

HAMMY END ~ 12/1 won two goes back over C/D on the Standard/Slow going from a hold-up ride,,, he came 4th over CD the time before that, and two runs previous to that he came he came third over the distance at Wolves,, Am not looking at his other runs as will consider he prefers t'Tapeta surface.. good enuf for me,,, Young Oliver Timms takes 7lb off to help out here,,

AL GAIYA ~ 20/1 has lesser claims but mebbe his trainer Joe Ponting can get a tune out of him on his 2nd run for the trainer/owner combo,, A hold-up ride minus his tendency to go wide (assuming JP has rectified Al Gaiya's errant ways) can give the pick a squeak here at a working person's price

GL to me, ye & thee :)

18-07-2022 3:52pm

Summit aint right up in here,,

Ole leff be's watching "Dad's Army" on Gold+1 whilst doing his studying,,,, hmmmmm - one prominent poster has an avatar that doth bear a strong resemblage to one o' t'lesser characters on that classic 70s sitcom,,

Said poster, if i aint mistaking him for someone else, has also got many privileges up in here; and, i might be paranoid, but it aint me what changed me sig (not for the first time this has happened neither) back to an older one.. tis almost too much of a coincidence - tis like the Universe is speaking to me

Trust Boards about as much as what any sane person would " Trust 'The Science' "

What would Josey Wales do? I gots to aks meself..

this presents an appalling vista imo, and tis making me consider the tenability of my presence on this forum going forward

Chief ARP Warden Hodges has questions what need answering, and, on that matter, i is sayin' no mo' ; until i decide i might want to say more - I'm umbrage taking fluid me..

ROT!!

I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

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