Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer 2022

Danno · 16-07-2022 11:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119347347#Comment_119347347

Hard to know precisely yet, but from this far out Monday night for homegrown storms drifting North then all eyes west/southwest as the Atlantic pushes back in Tuesday evening

fryup · 17-07-2022 11:02am

so a big light show on tuesday?

Gonzo · 17-07-2022 11:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119348340#Comment_119348340

There might be and if there is, it will be very much hit or miss type showers rather than everywhere getting rain/thunder. However most of the models at the moment are showing just a low to medium risk. We should have a better idea tomorrow morning.

pad199207 · 17-07-2022 11:21am

Yeah it’s really a patchy risk at the moment. Yesterday ECM had a decent chance for Leinster but even that has really reduced

Storm 10 · 17-07-2022 1:33pm

Pad what are the chances of storms in the West on Tuesday/Wednesday we had very little so far

PukkaStukka · 17-07-2022 3:59pm

Latest comments on several other online weather forums are concurring with a downgrade of the storm risk here. Unfortunate, but not surprising given the fickle nature of these things. Our nextdoor neighbours look like getting the fun instead

Say my name · 17-07-2022 4:52pm

The very south east/wexford looks like the greatest chance of thunderstorms now.

pad199207 · 17-07-2022 5:07pm

It’s still far too early to be even trying to pinpoint what’s going to happen. Wait till tomorrow evening

Lots or chopping and changing of how the low will engage

Dazler97 · 17-07-2022 7:09pm

I hope we have thunderstorms here in Carrick

Meteorite58 · 17-07-2022 8:30pm

There will be a big build up of CAPE drifting towards the NW tomorrow night, some models showing small chance of precipitation around the NW, maybe get a few sparks late night or the early hours, if they do occur maybe just off th coast but chance looks low.

Certainly a big climb down on the thunderstorm potential for Tuesday, most model guidance now showing the SE and E as the main areas of interest for Tuesday into Weds morning , soundings below for Waterford, spookwoman might get all the action again!

As Boris Johnson said ' Them's the Breaks'.

Bit to go yet will see tomorrow if any better chance.

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Meteorite58 · 17-07-2022 9:30pm

moved post

pad199207 · 17-07-2022 9:30pm

Unexpected cells breaking out over SW England . High based no doubt. So maybe there will be more surprises over the next 48 hours

Chris_5339762 · 17-07-2022 9:45pm

GFS not having any of it when it comes to thunder.

It's predicting almost no rain almost to the end of July, which is concerning. Soil moisture is down to 14% on my sensor, and we really need rain now, even for a good thunderstorm.

pad199207 · 17-07-2022 11:02pm

ECM has some bits and pieces again over the SE and E for Tuesday Night. This may upgrade tomorrow

Meteorite58 · 18-07-2022 2:04am

ECM 18Z better again for Tuesday. Starting to show the front that bit more pronounced now. It has showers crossing the country from early, bringing Cork more into the equation now also. Looks a weak enough affair until it reaches the Eastern half of the country but could aid forcing as it comes up against the warmer air in the afternoon/ evening . One to watch is the area of convergence which could be one of the main catalyst's for storm formation ( I think so anyway ).

Good Deep Layer Shear available, pronounced area of convergence, LLS available, decent lapse rates, more humid and high Dp's and that area of LP around the S, SE coast where the triple point might brush along the coast could be an area of interest Tuesday evening also . Be it right or wrong I would have more confidence again of thunderstorms mainly for later Tuesday. Got a bit more interesting again.

pad199207 · 18-07-2022 10:04am

High based convection breaking out here

DOCARCH · 18-07-2022 10:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352299#Comment_119352299

Looks like a few sharp showers breaking out too over the midlands/north midlands.

lolie · 18-07-2022 10:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352327#Comment_119352327

Just for a text from someone in Oldcastle to say there was a fairly heavy but short shower. Sky looks fairly dark in that direction.

Cooljaybeans · 18-07-2022 11:06am

Just a quick shower in wexford now , big thundery drops of rain

PukkaStukka · 18-07-2022 11:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352463#Comment_119352463

Can see it from the distance here. Seems a very high cloud top but not much at lower level. Interesting this should happen now and things are not quite at their hottest or most unstable.

As an aside, Evelyn Cusack was on Morning Ireland earlier and did mention Thunderstorms are a possibility for Lenister. Hopefully that's an improvement on what appears to have been something of a downgrade over the weekend

Say my name · 18-07-2022 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352601#Comment_119352601

Shower of rain in enniscorthy atm.

esposito · 18-07-2022 11:32am

On Met.ie the forecast for tomorrow mentions “scattered outbreaks of rain and local lightning”. I’m getting a tad excited about tomorrow.

odyssey06 · 18-07-2022 11:34am

Are these more likely inland? Am in Dublin Bay North.

highdef · 18-07-2022 11:36am

Viewing from Baldoyle, a recent heavy shower passed by to my South but it's pure virga, nothing reaching the ground.

Say my name · 18-07-2022 12:15pm

Looks like a band of Cumulus west of Cornwall is heading towards the south of Ireland.

Say my name · 18-07-2022 3:30pm

Sferics off the galway, mayo coast.

dacogawa · 18-07-2022 3:59pm

Two strikes out west in the last few minutes.

Storm 10 · 18-07-2022 4:44pm

Missing the action off the West Coast all at sea

Screenshot_20220718-164235.png

Danno · 18-07-2022 5:10pm

Some virga and mammatus clouds building just north of me over Central-West Laois.

pad199207 · 18-07-2022 5:20pm

Active enough off Belmullet

Comhrá · 18-07-2022 5:25pm

A few strong echoes moving north now off the west and southwest of Ireland. Worth watching later tonight for activity off Atlantic coasts?

Dazler97 · 18-07-2022 6:01pm

I hope we do get some thunderstorms tonight, I'm dying for them, 30c and cloudy here in Carrick on Shannon but very warm despite the cloud

Banarol · 18-07-2022 6:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119352755#Comment_119352755

Met.ie have since downgraded saying 'some showery rain with an isolated thundery burst possible

pad199207 · 18-07-2022 11:08pm

Biscay is alive

Meteorite58 · 18-07-2022 11:08pm

Storms firing away in Biscay tonight will see what will be drawn up towards us, how will the advancing LP and its troughs interact with the advancing front crossing the country, they may just peter out along the S or move more East, will see if we get home grown storms. Models still pointing towards the SE , E tomorrow evening as a possibility of some storms, not sure how much, they dont show it too hectic but with all this heat you never know. European models showing varying amounts of precipitation , American not showing anything much but would side with the European on this.

Meteorite58 · 18-07-2022 11:15pm

This is an interesting model which I havent used, looks very handy.

Central Europe Multi Model HD

The multi-model is a product that combines different high-resolution regional models for Central Europe into one forecast by dynamic weighting. A major advantage of the multi-model is that extreme solutions from one model do not bias the forecast in that direction. The multi-model will therefore never represent an outlier variant and thus can be taken as a good starting point for more detailed considerations.

If, for example, the multi-model predicts extremely high amounts of precipitation for a region, then this is a serious indication that it will come true, since this forecast is supported by several independent weather models and the impact of extreme solutions have been damped.

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xx_model-en-318-0_modmulticeur_2022071818_23_949_247 (1).png

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Dazler97 · 18-07-2022 11:16pm

Aww fingers crossed we get some decent thunderstorms here in Carrick

Larbre34 · 18-07-2022 11:16pm

Could be that we see electrical storms in the breakdown tomorrow, not so much rain, but the dancing lightning in the mountains and offshore.

Meteorite58 · 18-07-2022 11:43pm

New strike off the Clare Coast, the cloud and precipitation for now running up along the coast, some tall cloud tops , will see if any more appear along the W, NW coasts tonight.