Watch market predictions

893bet · 09-06-2022 11:06pm #1

for a big of fun……interested to hear other peoples predictions.

Stalemate of high asking prices to persist on most Rolex sub 25k on the grey market. Very few sales and rumours of deals to be hard to persist. Dealers will break range slowly but surely and drop prices.

Hype models crash to continue and accelerate over the next 3 months. I can only use my Aqua as reference. Cheapest dealer one on c24 6-8 weeks ago was 80k and loose. There is one for 57k now and a full set (but I ain’t mad, I predict sub 40k by end of summer. All others to follow suit in tandem (hype AP, PP, Rolex).

Reports of Two tone subs/Daytona and steel datejust in the windows before summer ends.

Rolex GMTs at 15k before year end.

Solid gold Daytona to be below retail at the greys by end of summer.

Instagram “dealers” who typically only have 5-10 watches at a time to disappear as they don’t have the reserves or contacts to survive the fact that all their inventory is dropping like a hot stone at the same time. They will dump stock and be unable to replace.

Keanes to ring me and ask am I still interested in paying retail for gold Daytona and me telling them get fucked.

dead cat bounce near end of year for Xmas. Prices to bottom end summer 2023.

LeonOSearcaigh · 10-07-2022 11:51pm

I was planning to buy myself a little present from Chopard in August September, but you reckon, maybe I should wait a lot longer? Thanks Leo

banie01 · 11-07-2022 12:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119319711#Comment_119319711

If you are buying new? There will be no pricing change other than up for the RRP (Tho AFAIK, chopard does have discount potential).

If you are buying 2nd hand they are available at well below RRP and a look through watchrecon shows plenty of models available 2nd hand at well below rrp. www.watchrecon.com is a handy tool for gauging the range of prices attained for 2nd hand watches.

j2 · 18-07-2022 3:26pm

Ouch, what did you pay for your aquanaut?

Bluefoam · 18-07-2022 3:38pm

My prediction is simple... anyone whop bought a watch as an investment is fooked. Anyone who borrowed money to buy a watch as an investment is fooked... Anyone who bought a watch to wear it and enjoy it is grand...

There's gonna be a whole lot of Rolexes available second hand and on the grey market... I've already been offered a couple.

893bet · 18-07-2022 5:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119354324#Comment_119354324

I am safe 😀.

I have gone from 60k profit to 40k. It’s all theoretical as I have no plans to sell. Unless I can sell with a few to buying back cheaper. Which is where the market is going.

j2 · 18-07-2022 11:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119354969#Comment_119354969

It's only a loss if you sell, absolutely. Hell of a watch to have in your collection regardless of price.

893bet · 18-07-2022 11:42pm

I see watch Eric has broken ranks and said basically “it’s fucked”.

banie01 · 19-07-2022 12:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119356823#Comment_119356823

I'd tend to agree. I'm shopping at a lower tier but did a deal this weekend on what was already a low priced Sinn.

I went in 12.5% under asking and it was accepted with no back and forth. Makes me wonder if I should've chanced 20% but what's done is done 🤷‍♂️

Cassius99 · 19-07-2022 8:36am

What did you go for Banie? I've recently dipped my toe into the Sinn market with a 556i and a 104a. Loving the 556 to be honest, the 104 hasn't really got a look in yet!

Lorddrakul · 19-07-2022 10:49am

Interesting report, from an interesting source...

https://www.businessinsider.com/rolex-daytona-resale-prices-slide-as-crypto-crash-wipes-wealth-2022-7

Basically, it's all 'cause the crypto-bros screwed the pooch. :)

banie01 · 19-07-2022 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119357295#Comment_119357295

I bought another U2, a proper SDR this time rather than my current decrepit mongrel. Full set 2018 on a bracelet with additional silicon strap.

scwazrh · 19-07-2022 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119357861#Comment_119357861

Crypto-bros screwed the pooch

That’s pretty much it , that and the free money or not needed money floating around due to Covid .Easy got money always gets spent on shiny things .

banie01 · 19-07-2022 6:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119360052#Comment_119360052

Well yep! I know a few of my purchases were from easy money, not a crypto bro but I do dabble in that and stocks. A large part of my own trip through watch ownership was convincing myself that everything could be flipped on to the next in line if I changed my mind.

For a couple of watches, that was true and even profitable 😁 But! now stuff in the 1-5k tier is taking longer and longer to shift IME. An example I'll give is my Sinn 103 destro,it's been in Belfast since May with no serious interest. Plenty of other stuff there seems to be hanging around longer term now too.

Just had a look thru watchcharts for some of their recent infographics. The market isn't softening, it's passed that phase now IMO and is in decline outside of a few select brands and models, Look at the Pepsi market drop 😮

**Edit**

Just adding the AP chart to this as it seems the bubble is deflating rapidly rather than bursting but, that could still happen. The drop in the Blue RO points to that blue dial madness ratcheting back a little too maybe?

Wibbs · 19-07-2022 7:35pm

Whatever about steel sports Rolex that have always had a following, even if the market was much smaller. They were/are pretty much fashion proof. The Omega Speedy would be another in that vein. However the AP/PP steel sports stuff is very like the Panerai bubble of ten years ago. Came from pretty much nowhere(vanishingly few people in forums and the like were talking about AP RO even a few years ago), went nuts and then faded near overnight. Fashion based. IWC new and vintage went nuts before Panny and again deflated. Vintage Heuer ditto.

scwazrh · 20-07-2022 11:51am

Pepsi now on adverts for €20k .It’s only 6 weeks ago that there was one up for €28k

banie01 · 20-07-2022 7:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119363146#Comment_119363146

I think we are in full on "correction" territory now. The Starbucks chart from watch charts makes very interesting viewing 😮

If someone went grey for that anytime before April? I hope they bought it as they liked it rather than as a flip.

unkel · 21-07-2022 4:51pm

Lads, pretty much all those watches had gone up what like 40-80% in the last 2 years? A comedown of 10-30% is only a minor correction in that light really? A 214270 grey market was €5.5k 2 years ago. €10-11k at the peak is ridiculous for a nice, but firmly entry level Rolex sports watch. Not many people paid that for one, I hope. Even €9k (as per those figures) for one is too much imho, we're not done with the correction yet I'd say.

And then there's the hype watches, Rolex Daytona (all of them), GMT Pepsi / Batman, Hulk, etc. and do I even need to mention almost anything AP / Patek sporty? A 6 figure sum for an Aquanaut is preposterous. Looks like a €25k tops watch to me of which most of that money would be for the name.

Fitz II · 24-07-2022 11:09am

What you class as a minor correction in price may well be so, but its effect on sentiment is much greater. I am holding a few hype watches but honestly bring on the good old days where you got in an out of watches easy (lots of buyers) without loosing money of only losing a small amount. This was the golden days for the hobbyist. You could try a watch for a few months and it cost you a few hundred and a little hassle. All this profits stuff has ruined the game.

You can look at all the charts you want, the prices dont matter. Its the number of buyers that matters and at the moment there are none. Doesn't matter of you ask 20k for your Pepsi, or 22k or 18k...all the same lack of people out there willing to drop money on a watch that might be 15k in a few months. Put it up at 15k and you will get a few offering you 12k for it at which point you are better not to sell unless you are doing this for profit and need the cash-flow.

There is no metric for sentiment out there but if there was it would be on the floor. Its hold and enjoy time unless you bought in at the wrong time and need to liquidate to minimize your losses.

Wibbs · 24-07-2022 8:29pm

Aye. It's a near letter perfect copy of what happened in the vintage end of things about four years ago. No "bursting bubble" or anything. Stagnation. "Values" dropped alright, well down from the hype peak. The flippers and amateur dealers got out, or just hung onto pieces unwilling to sell at a loss. The press and commentators kept saying it's never been so good for "investment", but that faded soon enough(except for auctions houses and their shills for that very rarified market).

But the single biggest shift as you say was people weren't buying. The potential customer base fell off a cliff within a couple of months. Traffic in vintage forums also fell off a cliff. Ditto for insta. Even Hodinkee's prices softened and watches went unsold for ages.

The crowd moved on as crowds will and many of those who reckoned "it's different this time" as people always will with asset bubbles and they can't be dissuaded on this, well they moved into the steel sports Rolex end where they were convinced it was different. Rinse and repeat.

893bet · 10-08-2022 7:04am

https://youtu.be/iPPYoIS3qkA

the first scene with Marco is interesting.

Advising a client, who bought near the top of market, for a watch that peaked at 220, to dump at 135-140 and take the loss. Watch is a platinum Daytona.

njburke · 10-08-2022 10:03am

He describes 140 as the sweet spot to the client.

unkel · 10-08-2022 11:16am

$140k still seems like a lot of money to me for a ladies watch that retails at what, half that?

893bet · 10-08-2022 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119452711#Comment_119452711

i thought that pretty funny. Assuming the lad bought at 180. 40k pretty sweet loss.

893bet · 10-08-2022 11:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119453047#Comment_119453047

Not sure if retail but yeah 140 is still bonkers.

Not sure it’s a ladies but I guess most of us don’t have wrists like yours a full 1/2 inch above average wrist size. It’s the last 1/2 inch that counts my wife maintains.

Fitz II · 10-08-2022 11:48am

Was not your man Anthony selling watches and guaranteeing a buy back at the sale price??? Thats going to bite him (and he would like that).

40k loss on a speculation watch is not great but those Dyatonas were off the wall and everyone was saying it at the time, so a fool and their money.

Daytona is a unisex watch, its actually a lovely size, and if you look at the likes of Wahlberg he wears his collections of them very well, as does Ellen DeGeneres. The slimness of the movement and case for a chronograph, and the 40mm size make it a perennial favourite, and its likely to remain popular for a long time to come. I have handled a platinium one and there is something about the weight and feel of platinium that really gives it a rich feel, I would not however pay the extra over the white gold, but it is peek Daytona and that in a way is cool. Its worth exactly retail and thats where you would want to be into it. About 2 years ago these were going about 10k under retail on the secondary.

njburke · 10-08-2022 4:55pm

The dealer was full of contradictions but was very clear about the brokerage fee, 4% and that the platinum Daytona was likely to sell in a day.

He complained about doing the sellers paperwork and the buyers paperwork on the same day. Which to me says a lot about the broker.Not bad for anyone's days work. Dealers can still make money in a bear market providing they are not holding stock as the music slows down.

LeonOSearcaigh · 12-08-2022 12:17pm

It reminds me of studying "Tulipmania" in history class all those years ago!

LeonOSearcaigh · 12-08-2022 12:32pm

Luxury watch prices plummet on weak Chinese consumer confidence | Financial Times (ft.com)

unkel · 12-08-2022 12:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119463093#Comment_119463093

Behind a paywall. Presuming you have access to it, can you give us a summary of the article?

njburke · 12-08-2022 1:13pm

https://www.newsncr.com/business/luxury-watch-prices-plummet-on-weak-chinese-consumer-confidence/

This might be the same FT article, slight factual differences or translation errors.

Watch market predictions

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