Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

JanuarySnowstor · 13-07-2022 7:07pm

So not a red so but definite orange!

At least maybe orange

pad199207 · 13-07-2022 7:17pm

If it continues with the models I can see orange warnings being issued for sure. IIRC there was orange heat warning issued last July?

Meteorite58 · 13-07-2022 7:18pm

ECM very hot now for large parts of the country on Monday, my part of Kerry joins the 31C club 😅

Some very warm night time temperatures showing up.

ECM continuing to show Tues into Weds as a thundery breakdown with potential for heavy rain, that would be some way to go out with a bang! Still showing chart's getting up to 28C with Dp's getting up to 18- 20C. Have a picture in my head of people dancing in the rain after the hot few days 😀

sryanbruen · 13-07-2022 7:19pm

A good graph showing how exceptional the airmass being projected over Ireland by early next week is on models.

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1547298670097403904?s=20&t=DpS7qtOmU45abo32dZyaSg

igCorcaigh · 13-07-2022 7:38pm

I think this commentary from ME is quite good. About time they added more content to the site.

https://www.met.ie/sweltering-heat-forecast-from-15-19th-july-what-to-expect

Meteorite58 · 13-07-2022 7:40pm

A bit far out yet for the ARPEGE, would have more confidence in it say from Friday but it has to be noted that it is probably showing the highest temperatures yet for Sunday, could moderate a bit but looking hot all the same. Looks to get breezy, might feel like a hairdryer.

JanuarySnowstor · 13-07-2022 7:47pm

Indeed Sunday afternoon very much in the mix for Ireland re heat!

igCorcaigh · 13-07-2022 7:50pm

Thanks @Meteorite58 From that chart, what kind of temps could Cork City be looking at for Sunday, 24-25C maybe?

Chris_5339762 · 13-07-2022 7:55pm

Interesting the southerly winds. That will moderate things quite a bit for the south coast.

Meteorite58 · 13-07-2022 8:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333587#Comment_119333587

Maybe 23 or 24C at this stage would be a fair average . As the air travels over land and moves further inland it really begins to heat up. Might nudge up a bit more going by the ARPEGE, will see.

JanuarySnowstor · 13-07-2022 8:24pm

Cork will likely see 27+ as the wind varies Monday/Tuesday. Its not onshore all of the time, indeed as the biscay low moves in winds swing Northerly/variable.

So imo yes on onshore wind initially then variable or calm leading to Cork also joining in!

Dazler97 · 13-07-2022 8:29pm

Why are the highest temperatures looking to be in dublin surely the Midlands would be but then again depends alot

Hairypoppins · 13-07-2022 8:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333737#Comment_119333737

Cork is monsterous,North Cork would not be affected by this onshore wind

Cork2021 · 13-07-2022 8:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333794#Comment_119333794

I’m in and around the kanturk/mallow area, going by some of the charts we’re looking at 29-31c Monday/Tuesday!!

JanuarySnowstor · 13-07-2022 8:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333794#Comment_119333794

True but 75% of Corks population live within 25miles of the city which is near the coast

squarecircles · 13-07-2022 8:52pm

GROUND TEMPERATURES.

mickger844posts · 13-07-2022 8:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333737#Comment_119333737

Similar for Waterford City i would say. Uppers are 22 to 23c over the Southern Half of the country Monday so i would be expecting 3or 4c above that at ground level.

Hairypoppins · 13-07-2022 8:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333836#Comment_119333836

Ah,I see ,I wasn't aware of that

Cork2021 · 13-07-2022 9:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119333873#Comment_119333873

that ground won’t be softening up any time soo

zisdead · 13-07-2022 9:27pm

"In terms of what we are used to, temperatures in the 30's will have similar affect on people here as temps in high 40s has on people in Pakistan and India.

It's all relative to what you are used to."

Nonsense! there is not a person in Ireland who would not have experienced a temperature of 30 C or more in their lives and not one of them have had any ill effects.

You do realise people actually pay 1000 euro a year to go and experience just such an event for a week or more .. it called a "package holiday" and we have been doing it since the 70s :)

"Same as two inches of rain in Las Vegas causes absolute mayhem (I witnessed it in Jan 2006) whereas here it would just be a wet day."

Las Vegas is a dessert. If you can't see why 2 inches of rain falling on what is basically concrete as opposed to Connemara bogland has such hugely different results, then weather/geography is just not your thing.

squarecircles · 13-07-2022 9:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334062#Comment_119334062

I disagree, some elderly people in Ireland find temperatures in the mid to high 20's intolerable, you cant claim you know the limits and preferences of 5.1 million people, come on...seriously.

Dazler97 · 13-07-2022 9:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334062#Comment_119334062

Seriously that's so stupid to say 🙄

OldRio · 13-07-2022 9:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334062#Comment_119334062

Wow, that some assumptions you are making.

Itssoeasy · 13-07-2022 9:41pm

I realise this might be a weird thing to mention but looking at the temperatures on the charts, it’s going to be a bad day for playing hurling in that heat in croke park.

zisdead · 13-07-2022 9:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334092#Comment_119334092

OP said comparable to the high 40s in India , Don't start straw manning it with old people plus intolerable. They will be fine ;)

Oscar Bravo · 13-07-2022 9:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334138#Comment_119334138

As long as Hawk Eye is suffering from Heat exhaustion and out of action, should be a cracker :)

Itssoeasy · 13-07-2022 9:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334155#Comment_119334155

I know one of the umpires doing the game and I don’t envy him Standing there with all the gear on for a couple of hours. Seems like hawk eye has sobered up and is go for Sunday.

esposito · 13-07-2022 9:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334138#Comment_119334138

A few water breaks wouldn't go amiss. Max temperature for Croke Park will probably be around 26C but the high humidity would be the biggest problem

Gonzo · 13-07-2022 10:01pm

Mod Note: Everyone has personal opinions about the coming possibly historic events and their opinions have to be respected, however nasty personal comments is not tolerated here on boards and any further insults directed towards others will result in warnings and posts being deleted. Can we all just enjoy what is about to happen over the next few days.

Gonzo · 13-07-2022 10:05pm

Met Eireann have just updated their temperature profile and now showing 28 for Sunday, 31 for Monday and 29 for Tuesday. This is well above anything Met Eireann has ever forcasted for this region of Meath.

JanuarySnowstor · 13-07-2022 10:07pm

The 18z already upping the ante bringing the heat in faster on Sunday..

Folks this is Game On, just a question of what happens

13-07-2022 10:09pm

I was once in a London apartment, an old listed Georgian building during a heatwave. My bedroom was in the attic, but the building being listed meant that it wasn’t air conditioned, naturally, and the only window I had was a tiny shuttered south facing roof window which didn’t stop the sun - there were no curtains - but also didn’t leave in much air . The temperature outside was maxing to ~30°. The temperature in my room was 40°. After the first day I slept downstairs. A few years ago France had temperatures similar to the kind of temperatures normal to Spain and thousands died, while there was no excess deaths in Spain. Obviously hot weather causes problems to those countries not equipped for it.

Gonzo · 13-07-2022 10:18pm

GFS 18z still sweeping the heat away Monday night but not to the same extent as the 12z. Gets some places to 26 or 27C but no 30s.

Gonzo · 13-07-2022 10:24pm

GFS 18z still showing moderate to high chances of thunderstorms on the Monday and Tuesday.

squarecircles · 13-07-2022 10:46pm

another blistering gfs run for monday

the mid third of the country being scortched on this run...

you can easily add on 2 or 3 degrees to these maxima.

pauldry · 13-07-2022 11:01pm

Some charts show it only being 15c in the Northwest on Tuesday. Hope this isn't true. If we get over 20c Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday I'll be happy though as its been so cold here. Still only 16c today. Wish there was more cut off lows to send Southerly breezes and temperatures of 30c but unfortunately that Bay of Biscay low swings up over us Tuesday and eventually brings back the cold NW and W winds for an extended period.

Still I'm sure by Tuesday many here including me will be moaning that it's too hot and we prefer 18c over this any day.

squarecircles · 13-07-2022 11:06pm

in 30 years time this weather will become frequent every summer for more than 24 hours, maybe even 72 hours, unfortunately w'ill all be too old to enjoy it, so somebody born tonight will be some of the first irish people in the future to be able to enjoy 3 proper guaranteed days of proper med summer weather, i feel a bit emotional.

Little snowy old me · 13-07-2022 11:46pm

Why am I getting a creeping sense that things are about to take a downgrade turn?

WJL · 14-07-2022 12:02am

30-32c in Ireland, for example, tends to feel 10c hotter than on the continent. Probably due to the humidity.

40c on the Greek Islands never feels like that for me. A sticky, sultry 28c here is harder to work in.

WJL · 14-07-2022 12:07am

I was rehabbing a sports knee injury in July 2006 when 31c was hit in the Midlands.

Anyway I was working with this fella Mark McCabe, big into S&C, in Dublin City centre. He had space in the open on a roof top, with an astro turf type surface. It must have been 27-28c in Dublin. He put me through an hour and half heavy core session with weights and medicine balls etc. The most exhausting session I did in my life! I was fit to fall off the roof.

14-07-2022 12:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119334706#Comment_119334706

Being Donegal, and with something pushing up from the south you are more likely than Kilkenny say to miss out. The plume mightnt reach you. Though all the models say it will.

Likewise you're more likely to get snow on a North westerly or northerly, than Kilkenny.

An Ri rua · 14-07-2022 2:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119332317#Comment_119332317

Well said.

This can't be said enough, put out some water for birds over these few days in particular.

M.T. Cranium · 14-07-2022 5:59am

At the present time, the heat was so intense near the border of Spain and Portugal that temperatures have only dropped to 30 C at 0500h at one location (Portoalegre), after highs around 42-43 C. The air mass is very dry, dew points are close to 1 C in the core of the heat, but 13-17 C in France. In France it was 37 C at Bordeaux on Wednesday and 36 C in Paris (for daily highs). Temperatures have dropped to near 20 C or a bit lower in more rural areas so the full effects of the heat low are not being felt there yet.

The GFS evolution (00z) shows that some of this extreme heat is going to be pulled out over Biscay towards southeast Ireland, the marine influence on it will moderate it somewhat but there are certainly ways for one or two locations to reach or surpass the old national record of 33.3 C. Also what's left of the Atlantic low west of Portugal will be tracking across Ireland on Tuesday, interacting with that very warm air, and it is bound to produce a thundery breakdown on some scale. We won't really know the details on that for several more days. So, hot on Sunday and Monday, very warm and more humid on Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, much cooler on Wednesday is the current planner.

pad199207 · 14-07-2022 6:53am

The usual overcooked caveat apply especially with an overnight UKV but 35°c in the midlands anyone on Monday?

Rebelbrowser · 14-07-2022 7:40am

Upper temps of 22c!

Screenshot_20220714-081909_Samsung Internet.jpg

pauldry · 14-07-2022 8:18am

Met Eireann is predicting 32.5mm of rain here on Wednesday morning. For Sligo I'd say itl go a little something like this.

Friday 18c

Saturday 23c

Sunday 26c

Monday 29c

Tuesday 25c

Wednesday 15c and 40mm of rain.

Think Meath is going to be hottest but leaving my prediction in the flash contest. But parts of the Midlands will almost definitely get their highest ever recorded temperature in July if not all time.

squarecircles · 14-07-2022 9:20am

Monday

piplip87 · 14-07-2022 9:46am

Can't wait for the heat was in NYC back a few weeks ago and it hit 37 one of the days and over 30 for a few of them. So it gave me a nice teaser for warm weather. Very interesting to see the thunderstorm possibility as had a massive Thunderstorm over there as well, I was on the ferry as it happened and was incredible.

Gonzo · 14-07-2022 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119335578#Comment_119335578

This is a weather forum and the majority of people who read this forum have a healthy interest in the weather. Ireland's temperature record is almost 200 years old so we are potentially looking at a once in a lifetime chance of beating that record on Monday so everyone here is waiting with a bit of excitement to see if it does.

Gaoth Laidir · 14-07-2022 10:00am

ECM probability charts of 30 °C being surpassed at 1300 and 1900 over Saturday-Tuesday. Not to be taken 100% literally but more as a guide.

Note: This is not the daily max, only the temperatures at those hours, so in between e.g 1600-1700 the probability will get higher.

Hot Spell - Saturday 16th July onwards

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