Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Yurt2 · 20-07-2022 10:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366228#Comment_119366228

What charts? The rouble can go to the moon, it's precisely useless outside of discreet energy transactions. It's the North Korean won. Imports into Russia have collapsed. No one wants to hold roubles and the only transacting happens with currency swops in Russian banks with a couple of dozen European energy countries done at gunpoint.

Homelander · 20-07-2022 10:47pm

I love how you neglected to quote the rest of that exact article because the rest of it doesn't agree with the wafer thin narrative of Russia's mighty economy you're trying to push.

The ruble's rally has created some problems for Russia's central bank, which has taken steps to bring its currency closer to historic levels, including loosening capital controls and lowering interest rates.

A strong currency doesn't mean Russia is immune to economic pain, however. Although the ruble's bounceback and the strength of Russia's oil exports have temporarily cushioned its economy from sanctions, the effect is likely to be short-term, experts say.

Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, noted that Russian oil is selling for $35 per barrel less than Brent crude, the international benchmark, reflecting the discount buyers demand for doing business with the nation.

"Nobody today would buy Russian oil at $120 a barrel. And in fact there are plenty of energy buyers who will not buy Russian oil at any price today, whether because of sanctions or because of reputational risk," he said. "The Russian economy is losing approximately $200 million dollars a day — or $70 billion on an annual basis — as a direct result of the war."

What's more, European nations have vowed to cut their imports of Russian gas by two-thirds this year — a potentially crippling blow given Russia's dependence on energy exports.

One sign the Russian economy remains under severe pressure is that inflation in Russia is more than double the rate in the U.S. That's creating pressure for Russians to move their money out of the country, said Frankel of the Harvard Kennedy School.

"The temptation to get assets out of Russia, for Russian citizens to find a way around the controls ... will grow, especially with the inflation rate now as high as it has shot up," he said.

Tonesjones · 20-07-2022 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366230#Comment_119366230

And the Euro chart?

Nothing is stopping Russia buying USD or any other currency through backdoor channels. It can effectively convert its own currency ( at record rates) and at the same time manipulate the value for increased competitiveness.

There is constant criticism of China as it manipulates its own currency to accommodate cheap exports

Look at the ECB just yesterday- developing a program to facilitate "infinite " bond buying to bail out the likes of Italy.

Yurt2 · 20-07-2022 10:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366217#Comment_119366217

Your academic explained to you how the notional value of the rouble skyrocketed in-country, he didn't spoonfeed you the implications of it.

The rouble went up because imports collapsed, and for the middle class Russian, holding dollars may as well have been holding Pokemon cards, becuase they can't transact for anything because of sanctions. Try to pay for a house in London with roubles, you can't. Try to pay in dollars, euro or sterling, you can't. Between that and capital controls, the rouble has been fenced off from the rest of the world. Holders of foreign currency in dollar or euro accounts have been forced into holding roubles.

Yurt2 · 20-07-2022 10:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366256#Comment_119366256

🤣

And who outside Russia would be arsed buying these roubles with it's zero utility? And to what end? And how are they magically doing so having been cut off from the Swift system? Think about this for a second would you

The only transacting between the developed world and Russia done in roubles is in Russian banks with a limited amount of energy companies, who by political fiat are exchanging freely traded currencies like the euro and dollar at gunpoint.

It's the North Korean won with a ushanka hat on.

Tonesjones · 20-07-2022 11:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366265#Comment_119366265

The rouble value is backed by the global and especially European requirement for fossil fuels. This won't be changing any time soon.

End

Yurt2 · 20-07-2022 11:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366300#Comment_119366300

I'll give you a little thought experiment, I drop by your house tommorow with a gearbag full of roubles. What are you going to do with it?

I hope don't have your heart set on a new Playstation or a holiday anywhere but Omsk, because the gearbag full of cash may as well be monopoly money.

RoundCube · 20-07-2022 11:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366093#Comment_119366093

It's strongest because the import is over but export is doing mostly fine. There is lot less demand for currencies on MOEX. Trading volumes are about 10% of pre-war period. Also it's nearly impossible to withdraw USD/EUR in ATMs in Russia.

The sanctions are effective. They aren't powerful enough but they are definitely effective.

Citizens of Russia do feel sanctions. For example many cancer patients died without chemotherapy. The consumer inflation is there.

RoundCube · 20-07-2022 11:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366300#Comment_119366300

That's a bad, non-diversified, backing. Anyway nominal rouble rate doesn't matter if you can't withdraw the dollars, if black market prices are way higher and if you can't buy many things (PS5) for roubles and many goods imported through "parallel import scheme" cost lot more than they should if the nominal rate is "true".

RoundCube · 20-07-2022 11:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366293#Comment_119366293

Unfortunately, SWIFT is not the only way to transact and many countries are willing to transact with Russia using alternative ways, including russian QPS (quick payment system). Also so far most of the russian banks are still connected to swift. That's not a north korean level yet.

Darth Putin · 21-07-2022 12:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119365701#Comment_119365701

It was proved a load of shite by Putin himself who openly and oh so publicly proclaimed his imperial ambitions in St Petersburg

wassie · 21-07-2022 12:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119363906#Comment_119363906

Ol' Putin seems to have to work hard at hiding the shakey-shakes in his latest vid where he is made to wait.

He can't sit still...like he has the DTs after a hard night on the turps....

wassie · 21-07-2022 12:51am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119364646#Comment_119364646

The Boom is getting Boomier.

Francie Barrett · 21-07-2022 12:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366093#Comment_119366093

Sanctions hurt both Europe and Russia, there is no question of this. The question is who is hurting more, and who can tough it out? You would suggest Europe suffers more, but I would disagree. European GDP is taking a 1-2% haircut thanks to sanctions. Russian GDP will decline by a magnitude of that (ballpark 10%) as a result of their huge dependence on exports of energy and natural resources.

Europe would certainly have a low tolerance for suffering than Russia, but do you really want to be in Putin's shoes, presiding over a country with a substantially reduced economy, not to mention having to deal with tens of thousands of dead soldiers and pariah status in the world?

I think it's telling that the first deal that Putin suggested to the West was in exchange for easing of sanctions on Russia.

If sanctions were so ineffective, why would Putin be asking for relief on them?

Francie Barrett · 21-07-2022 1:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119359553#Comment_119359553

I can't see Russia "cracking" this year, and likely not the next either.

Putin has so much political capital banked at home, not to mention his cult of personality, the media, and everything else he's got going on with regard to energy and natural resources generating wealth.

I think he extends conscription, I think he goes to war economy, I think he will do anything by hook or crook to win in Ukraine.

If he does this, I am sure there will come a time when Russia gets war weary and boots him out (or he just keels over). Unfortunately, I don't see this in the short term, or medium term.

RoundCube · 21-07-2022 2:18am

I can't see Russia "cracking" this year, and likely not the next either.

Why? There is a non-zero probability of that happening. Though low.

BKtje · 21-07-2022 7:49am

I see that Switzerland has today agreed (according to a local newspaper) to accept injured civilian Ukranians. This comes from internal political pressure.

Officially however the request was accepted as it was made by a state rather than NATO and thus does not impact Swiss neutrality. 🙄

Podge_irl · 21-07-2022 8:10am

The "strength" of the rouble is utterly meaningless. Oil and gas purchases are denominated in dollars, the rouble's strength just means that Russia gets fewer roubles in return. It does little to increase their purchasing power globally as their imports have fallen off a cliff due to sanctions. It is of no use to them whatsoever.

Podge_irl · 21-07-2022 8:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119365848#Comment_119365848

Please share this intel that told us Russia has only 2 weeks of funds left please.

Darth Putin · 21-07-2022 8:22am

has anyone noticed that Russians gained nothing in two weeks now? Last update from warmapper and ISW where Russians gained anything was 6th July followed by Ukrainian gain on 7th

Second act of this war is over, there are some fairly damning statements from pentagon as to Russians third rate performance

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1550016817292361728?s=20&t=4UPA2ae6E30RYZ3hHn8fbw

is_that_so · 21-07-2022 8:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366837#Comment_119366837

Aren't they supposed to be realigning for their next city demolition? One would assume that the destroyed supply dumps is having an effect on this.

Darth Putin · 21-07-2022 9:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366908#Comment_119366908

Imho they have literally ran out of steam and the boilers have been HIMARSed

Next stage is probably going to go like so

* Russia declares occupied territories as part of Russia after holding sham referenda

* Threatens use of nuclear weapons if counterattacked

* Their bluff is called by Ukraine who continue counterattacks (Kherson could be retaken by cutting off Russians completely on wrong side of river)

TheValeyard · 21-07-2022 9:31am

Yeah I'd say they were meant to have this big regroup, rearm and push forward plan. But the UAF HIMARS ruined their plans by blowing up their ammo dumps, warehouses and logistical points.

EltonJohn69 · 21-07-2022 9:57am

BIDEN needs to parachute into Chechnya and lead an insurgency. russia won’t be able to handle a war on two fronts.

is_that_so · 21-07-2022 10:01am

So much for the alarm over Nordstream but still good to see.

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2022/0721/1311403-nord-stream/

Darth Putin · 21-07-2022 10:04am

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184?s=20&t=mBXkaQDdy7nGcZcj7luwNA

Bbbrrrrrrtt

21-07-2022 10:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366837#Comment_119366837

Yeah, the Kremlin coming out yesterday saying they are going to take more of Ukraine, when they are bogged down as it is smacks of late stage Hitler where he was commanding decimated/non existent divisions to attack.

zv2 · 21-07-2022 10:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119366611#Comment_119366611

I think they are fine tuning the sound effects.

zv2 · 21-07-2022 10:13am

From Putin's speech, cited earlier, I think he wants to set up a new Russia as a counterpoint to the west. Fair enough, but killing 100,000 Ukrainians is not the way to go about it. Putin bad.

21-07-2022 10:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119367144#Comment_119367144

Aging war machines... yeah, nothing to see here #gamechanger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXgtyyXjDm4

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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