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General British politics discussion thread

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,496 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Realistically, Labour can't win an outright majority. Scotland is lost to them and southern England is unlikely to flip. It's possible Starmer heads a coalition government with a pledge to change first past the post. It's the only chance Labour have given how stacked the system is against them.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,175 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    They would lose plenty of seats in England if the voting system was changed



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,304 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Labour just needs to move to the centre and presents themselves as competent and safe with the economy. Most British people, like Irish, are more conservative on most things than people would like to admit.

    If they get over 40% and the Tories are in the low 30s, they will get a majority.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,987 ✭✭✭✭Tom Mann Centuria


    They're already in the centre, they move any further right, they'll be to the right of the Tories.

    Oh well, give me an easy life and a peaceful death.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,074 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Yep exactly.


    Starmer is drab, but he is the perfect leader for now and tbf his polling is strong.

    Lots can happen, but with his current approach, its probable that they could get a majority or do something with the Lib Dems.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,987 ✭✭✭✭Tom Mann Centuria


    His polling isn't strong, at all, it's improved slightly, but time and again he polled worse than Johnson despite Labour being ahead of the Tories in polls.


    Oh well, give me an easy life and a peaceful death.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    @Rjd2

    Lots can happen, but with his current approach, its probable that they could get a majority or do something with the Lib Dems.

    Will the LDs have the seats though? I doubt Labour would want to touch the LibDems unless they get 30+ seats and the only way I see that happening is if they go full-in German style FDP and rinse it in the home countries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,718 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Won't happen. The LibDems hate Labour as much as the Tories do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,987 ✭✭✭✭Tom Mann Centuria


    The current leadership is more pragmatic than the previous plank Swinson. Locally they can work together, Milton Keynes Council not far from my hometown has been in a "Progressive Alliance" successfully for a couple of years.

    Davey personally seems sound enough, my dad met him a couple of times in the Charlie Kennedy era and also spoke highly of him, though he also initially thought Clegg was sound so maybe not the best judge! (Dad was a Liberal for decades, though he jumped ship after they went in to coalition with the Tories)

    Oh well, give me an easy life and a peaceful death.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,318 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I think there are a lot of very optimistic aspects to that pathway; SNP / Labour would only happen if the latter promises another Scottish Ref & that feels very unlikely ATM. And we all know what happened the last time a Junior member of a UK coalition attempted a ref. on changing the voting system. Maybe this time, more actual campaign structure would be put into the thing; but all it would take would be for a couple of the rags to swing against it to nuke the chances.

    But the bit that TBH made me go "No way" was replacing the House of Lords. Speaking as a true hurler on the ditch, the mythologising of the UK's institutions rival that of the US' own; in the same vein as Commons behaving like a jovial pantomime of debate, the House of Lords is too "British" to likely gain popular support in its dismantling.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,389 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Moving to PR doesn't need a referendum though. (as always open to correction on this). There's nothing constitutional about FPTP and parliament is ultimately sovereign anyway.

    The ARV referendum happened because that's all the Conservatives agreed to as part of the coalition for government. In theory the Lib Dems could have insisted that it only went to a parliamentary vote and that the Conservatives whipped it through. And if not, no coalition.

    How would it play out if a Labour/LibDem coalition brought in PR? Would it become the big election issue of 2028 with the Tories promising to go back to the proper 'one person one vote' and sweeping home? Or would the likes of Reform/UKIP/Greens/WorkersParty etc pick up enough seats straight away such that parliament would never have the desire/numbers to 'go back'?



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,718 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Some of the people in charge might be ok with it but the general LibDem electorate are just Tories who don't like the "nasty party" bit. They are just as hardcore on taxes and maintaining the class system.

    LibDems are middle England to the core.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    [Quote from Pixelburb #5728]

    But the bit that TBH made me go "No way" was replacing the House of Lords. Speaking as a true hurler on the ditch, the mythologising of the UK's institutions rival that of the US' own; in the same vein as Commons behaving like a jovial pantomime of debate, the House of Lords is too "British" to likely gain popular support in its dismantling.

    Well, they morphed the House of Lords court into the Supreme Court without issues. It just means that the court takes on the guise of a court of law rather than a few Law Lords standing in the chamber giving their judgements.

    If the HoL became The Senate or HM Senate, what difference? It would be just the way of getting in there would change. Remember that it is not so long ago that the real power was in the HoL where the PM sat rather than the HoC.

    One benefit of not having a formal written constitution is that it can morph away unnoticed by the hoi poloi.

    Currently, the Tories are busy removing their very long belief that Britain enjoys the right to free speech and the right to protest. No-one is out there manning the barricades. It is only when they need to protest (which will be soon) will they notice that they can no longer do so.



  • Registered Users Posts: 221 ✭✭fiveleavesleft


    Starmer seems to have no interest in PR at all. He told Marr last week it wasn't a priority for him. Rory Stewart tried to engage him three times on the topic yesterday & he completely talked past him. No need for PR when good men like him are around is his view.




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,304 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Labour have always opposed PR.

    The notion of PR isn't popular in the UK as their political system has delivered relative stability for several centuries.

    They compare this with the political systems in the continent and they see revolutions, monarchs being replaced, endless coalition governments, periods where country's have caretaker governments ( like our own).

    They don't want that. The Brits are proud of their electoral history and the stability it has given.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,987 ✭✭✭✭Tom Mann Centuria


    Not sure about stability of current system , 4 different Prime Ministers in 10 years when Sunak/Truss takes over, with grossly different views despite being in same party, not really stability imo. Apart from a Daily Mail/Daily Express narrative I don't think many British people give a flying fupp about our electoral history or electoral system, it just happens to be the one we were all raised with.

    Post edited by Tom Mann Centuria on

    Oh well, give me an easy life and a peaceful death.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,496 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    They're not. They represent a classic tradition in England that stretches back centuries to the civil war. They've always been more Liberal and Internationalist than the Tories. Being in the centre on economics isn't a bad thing imo.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,987 ✭✭✭✭Tom Mann Centuria


    They were always a progressive party bitd, more so before the SDP joined to make the Alliance. Kennedy was left of Blair on an awful lot of things later on too imo.

    Oh well, give me an easy life and a peaceful death.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    STV would, in my opinion, lead to a split in the Labour party where the lefties split and leave Labour to the Trade Unions. The Trade Unions are right wing on social issues but support the workers and their place in society.

    Unfortunately, there are fewer workers left since manufacturing left, and automation did for the rest. Where do they get their support - truck and train drivers, low paid civil servants, construction, possibly office workers, not many more. Even some of these will be gone in a generation if not sooner - like train drivers.

    The lefties might generate some support, but they tend to be anti-anything so unlikely to be cohesive enough to govern, even in a coallition.

    STV would also split the Tories into UKIP types and One-nation types. The One-nations would find the LibDems maybe a home for them. The UKIPs might find themselves unlikely to have much support in the long term, but maybe they could.

    STV would completely change political life in the UK, or by then - England.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,656 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    What a Brexit benefit...they have changed the law so businesses can use agency staff to replace employees striking for better pay/conditions....Christ....this is after he strongly condemned P&O for doing exactly that....




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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Well, Kwasi and Liz are, you know, friends with benefits. Somewhat surprised this used to be fully illegal, but hey, it's the Tory government - if it's good for their friends, lets make it legal.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,238 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    STV would completely change political life in the UK, or by then - England.

    That would be a good thing, I'd see 6 parties. Far left and right, SNP, and in the middle , "small c" one-nation conservatives, LibDems and something like "new labour". As for the greens and UKIP ? pass the popcorn. Be interesting to see how it settled out.

    Right now there's a possibility that the SNP could be kingmakers for the modest price of independence. Considering how Tories have treated Ireland in the game to keep them in power and how much Brexit will ultimately cost it's possible. Liz's tax proposals will cost HMG £30Bn and are likely to be illegal under current rules.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It is interesting to speculate England post the revolution that must be coming soon.

    I think it is going to be on National Prime Time TV. [Also available on the red button and most steaming services]



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    The Revolution WILL be televised

    Nate



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,363 ✭✭✭raclle


    The only way she can realistically cut tax is if she borrows. If Truss gets into power she will certainly break up the union given time. She will force through the NIP bill breaking international law but more importantly will force a trade war and thus damaging the islands economy. The north will not survive but maybe that's the plan? So we will end up with unification and the Scots will get their referendum and after seeing what happened to the north will leave the UK



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,781 ✭✭✭Ahwell



    You have an awful habit of projecting your own views of something on to others without any real evidence. How do you know "The notion of PR isn't popular in the UK"? Intuition?

    A YouGov tracking poll on "Which voting system would you prefer?" currently has proportional representation 42%, First Past the Post 27% and don't knows 29%. This hasn't really changed over a year and a half. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-we-change-our-current-british-voting-system



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,238 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Debt as a percentage of GDP has tripled since 2001 - if it works she gets elected, and if she loose the next election it's someone else's problem.



    Brexit and Covid and productivity and the chumocracy



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,363 ✭✭✭raclle


    At least Sunak is being honest but honesty doesn't get you into number 10. They need to curb inflation first but looking at that graph they borrowed heavily during covid. Borrowing and then lowering tax will only increase inflation



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,304 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    It's not intuition. It's based on the fact that the main two parties opposed PR.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,781 ✭✭✭Ahwell


    Labour Party members are overwhelmingly in support of PR,



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