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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • There is that post-pandemic splurge by people too, taking tons of trips, making relatively extravagant spendings that may be affordable in the short term, but not so if spendings are being repaid by instalments when funds may be about to run out with increased cost of living. We were locked down by Covid, we are breaking out briefly, we will be relatively “locked down” somewhat again by therecession.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    i don't mind them all carrying on as if nothing is coming...it just gives the rest of us who can see the reality of what is ahead more time to prepare before the panic sets in


    had to laugh at the headlines on thejournal today....one where the UN are warning about possible nuclear annihilation at any moment...then a couple of stories down, the final of love island being on tv tonight....says it all really



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Using examples of busy pubs or people buying new cars etc doesn't disprove that there is a recession coming. The clouds are grey, but it hasn't started raining yet.

    If and when the recession does come, there won't be a question of there being one or not.

    And I must add, same economic activity is not good news as it means currently inflation is not impacting on peoples buying which means inflation will go higher again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Argentina doing Argentina things

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/argentina-offers-leliq-at-60-marking-800bps-rise-in-key-rate#:~:text=Argentina%20Boosts%20Key%20Rate%20to%2060%25%20as%20Inflation%20Soars%20Toward%2070%25,-Central%20bank%20move&text=The%20Central%20Bank%20of%20Argentina,%2C%20Feb.%2025%2C%202022.

    Argentina Boosts Key Rate to 60% as Inflation Soars Toward 70%

    What's interesting is the IMF want Argentina to put their interest rates above the inflation rate. I don't think they've asked for the same in the EU?

    Our interest rates need to be way higher to tackle inflation. The energy component may bring the rate down slightly but I see inflation staying at 6%+ if rates are not risen substantially.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Talk to the chipper owner or the coffee shop owner. Are people buying less than the month previous or the one before that. These kind of businesses notice the change first . If people think there will be a recession and stop spending they will help to ensure one does happen

    The job losses , refinancing of loans etc come way way after



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    Don't know about coffee but I was jnder the impression chippers/pizzerias/fast food relatively recession proof???

    They tend to do fine in a recession as far as I was aware...



  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭purpleshoe


    It is a bizarre/odd time. I turn on the news or open a paper, and immediately my concern levels heighten. Then I go out in public and what I see contradicts everything reported in the media.

    Like similar posts, I think the fun many are having this summer will unfortunately come to an end during the winter months, and it could be the start of a grim few years ahead for world economies, and for all of us in general. I want to be very wrong but I think it is inevitable it is going to go south big time. Globalisation has resulted in the world hanging off a few main economies that are now in serious strive, causing serious strive, or both.

    I reckon there are many people up and down the country who just cannot comprehend just how exposed we are to a significant recession. I suspect their pandemic savings, which they are now burning through, has given them a false sense of security.

    A colleague in work (single mother with kids) bought a new house in a highly priced urban area last year, and recently got a new car on PCP. She said getting the car on PCP was the only way she could afford it. I wished her luck but thought to myself you are playing with fire, whatever financial wriggle room you had after buying the house is probably gone up in smoke with that move. Her most recent action leads me to believe that she like many are just not paying attention. It is our real world version of the movie “Don’t look up.”

    It will be interesting to see what the budget ahead gives the taxpayer, and how the taxpayer responds. I won’t hold my breath for anything positive as currently every country is trying to take money out of their economy aswell as service massive debts as a result of Covid. Why would Ireland be any different?

    Post edited by purpleshoe on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    During a period of inflation maybe not. Local chipper charged me 9.20 for goujons and chips a few weeks back. They have become expensive.

    I haven't been back since. Could be happening with others too



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Was always buying kebab chip tray from local take away.The last time I bought I paid 1.5 euro more for dry and cold meal with half tea spoon of souce and small piece of lettuce on top.Before it was the only spot I was getting it,the best place in town.Never back since.

    We started more cooking at home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Yeah I've cut down on the chipper big time. Before I could go two or three times a week. Now the cost is really prohibiting.

    I've had a look at my emails for orders. Here is one from 2018 from the chipper I would usually go to.

    July 2018:

    Garlic Chips: 4.50

    Quarter Pounder: 4.20

    Onion Rings: 2.00

    So I'd get a nice feed for just over a tenner.

    Same products today (in fact there are now only 3 onion rings, not 4 like there was)

    Garlic chips: 5.50

    Quarter Pounder: 5.50

    Onion Rings: 3.00

    That's 14 euro for the same order, or a 31% increase in 4 years.

    I actually think the chips portions are smaller too. They changed from the tin trays to cardboard ones which I think are smaller.

    If I go back to May 2016:

    Garlic Chips: 4.20

    Onion Rings: 1.50

    Southern Fried Chicken Fillet Burger: 4.90 (compared to todays price of 6.50)

    If I compare those prices to now that's an increase of 4.40 or 42%



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    Will this the Biden price which he will pay Xi for Pelosi visit to Taiwan and better democrats ratings before November elections ? We will see it soon 😊

    Looks like date of visit to Taiwan not accidentally chosen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 287 ✭✭dollylama


    I can almost guarantee a lot of these loans will be to aid cashflow or act as an overdraft facility.. regardless of the sales pitch!

    The cost increases this past year have caught even the fittest businesses off guard, literally twice the money out up front for nothing more in the other end. Businesses of all sizes are going to see a cash crunch this winter if they're not seeing it already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,734 ✭✭✭lalababa


    Re: that woman who could only afford a car on pcp. I think you have to have a 15% deposit on pcp ...so around like 4k? Theres plenty good cars around for <= 4k. So...basically she wanted to drive around in a new car. 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    When you think about it. Cooking oil through the roof, food prices rising, energy needed to cook the food and staff wanting higher wages. It's either put prices up or shut the doors.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Its starting.

    Funniest thing that everyone blaming "inflation" now.But reality is that everything started way before COVID! There was many talks already that COVID support will only let zombies to survive before support will be taken off and reality will be seen once this will be happened.

    Shortage of work force shows that Irish economy doing well ? Look at those ads on Indeed ! Majority of them are Low Paid or agency temporary or fake because most agencies just collecting CVs for them data bases .

    Prices rising because of inflation ? Show me the businessman which will not share his COVID loss with customers or make customer pay it ? Most of them profiting of inflation making people build his profit which he lost during the COVID back or because doesn't want lose his margins!

    You will see how prices will falling down even if energy prices will rising once people will loose them jobs and there will be less money on streets !

    Rising prices in take aways ? When did you last time got receipt buying there ? My cash and VAT always goes to them pocket without sign been taxed ! When most lads there on minimal wage which grew up for how much ? A 50 cents per hour and that why they added 2 euros for the plate ? Look,we can arguing about prices of gas and oil but I am sure they all making us pay !

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The supports during covid were too generous. There were less businesses closing during covid than there were pre covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    As someone who did a fair bit of CDF's and spread trading over the years, I have seen things pick up and move down on and off. For the most part, I am not on board the doom and gloom train. If there is a recession as bad as some think it will be I still see a light at the end of that tunnel. I might point out that while I do the markets, I don't borrow money willy-nilly for fancy living.

    It's not the end of the world people unless of course, that's what you want yourself

    Dan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Go onto the Tesla thread and see how many are buying are buying 50k cars on PCP. It’s crazy the amount of debt people are taking on pre recession.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That will be the first thing to crash new car sales. Once the utility bills adjust to the wholesale prices this winter it will be the last thing people will be planning on doing. Even if you can afford it the pychological aspect of it makes people more cautious.

    Up another 6% in 24 hours with prices 8 times higher than last year. Eight times ! You could have peoples energy bills higher than the mortage on your home.



    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭gw80


    We get it, there is a recession coming, maybe bad maybe not,

    We have been here before, we will get through it again, no matter how bad it gets,

    Or do you expect every one to just crawl under the debri and devastation that this recession will cause?

    Or maybe we will all go grovelling to putin and ask him to save us from our decadent capitalist ways.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes,some people who bought cars to show neighbors how cool they are will make neighbors laughing having sign House for sale above them new car next year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Human stupidity knows no bounds. Same twits will be on some prime time special in a few months time crying to the presenter and blaming "da gubbermint" for everything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    Some people are just oblivious



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I think most common gifts Santy will bring to houses this Christmas will be redundo package or lay off payslip with holiday payment left.

    Plenty new users with 0 feedbacks on adverts selling used stuff.



  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Disagree- there’s a massive shortage of brand new EV cars and decent secondhand EV and ICE cars with waiting lists for new EVs beyond a year in some cases. People who brought a new EV car in the last two years have seen very little depreciation as a result.

    Second hand EV prices will likely remain high in the short term until demand and supply rebalance - it’s actually probably the best time to buy a brand new EV , that’s if you can get your hands on one.

    Even if someone loses their job and can no longer afford the repayments, it’s unlikely they’ll owe a lot and quite possibly can just hand back the car- they certainly won’t be facing a 50k debt or anything like it as your post suggests



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Cars sales down in double digits.

    Electric cars sales up but amount of cars is minimal comparing with traditional.

    Let's see how electric cars owners will enjoy electricity prices this winter and hope the access will not be limited as in France ( country with nuclear energy) at the moment.

    Some Germany officials saying that charging points on streets will be cut off this winter if there will be shortage of electricity.So many EV owners risking find them cars uncharged on morning.



  • Registered Users Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    The current car prices are bubble I think



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    ​​​​​​​New car registrations for May were down 10.3% (5,303) when compared to May 2021 (5,914). Registrations year to date are up 3.2% (63,045) on the same period last year (61,091) and are -20.5% behind (79,350) that of pre-Covid levels.

    Not all doom and gloom.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Car sales are down also due to the fact you can't get them. Friend of mine ordered a new car last Oct for delivery in January. No sign of car yet. Had bought previous car on PCP and problem now is balloon payment is due or upgrade car but car not available and no idea when it will be.



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