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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Big problem SMEs will face is cash flow, I see it myself there is too much money going out up front for the same or even less profit coming in. Electricity bill through the roof, cost of fueling vans up twice, wage bill up, suppliers are tightening credit terms and limits. If you are selling goods/services on credit it can runaway from you pretty quick. I'd really fear for retail businesses by early next year, if consumer spending is seriously curtailed meeting energy bills and everyday inflation, the xmas period will be bleak.



  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Oh they are and it’s well known they are- extremely low second hand market of quality cars, reduced imports from UK since Brexit and chip shortages and supply issues for new EVs have led to a huge bottleneck- so 2nd hand anything right now in the car market is hyper inflated to what it would have been in 2019

    It will settle down but will take another 2-3 years to go back to “normal” prices - in the meantime depreciation on new cars but especially EVs will be quite small compared to “normal”



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,890 ✭✭✭enricoh


    I think the majority of people are in a better place financially than when the tiger calved. At least the central bank didn't change the lending rules and allow people over borrow.

    The government finances are in a heap and we are totally reliant on a handful of companies now to pay the bills. The last 10 years we took in a fortune from the multinationals n squandered it just as quick.

    A lot of people think shops n businesses are absolutely coining it but a majority are not imo. I think it'll be carnage in hospitality n the high street after Christmas this year. Costs are just too high n consumer sentiment ain't gonna be great this winter.



  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Maintaining a retail space in the “high/main street” can’t be easy right now, especially as people have got so used to online shopping- brought a number of bully items in Arnotts recently, all online, 5 euro delivery- it saved me 7 euro in parking, and 15 euro in petrol and the hastle of it all. I’d hate to see shops like arnotts disappear and lord knows how a small boutique can survive.


    I think home renovations will continue to boom for the next few years- house prices are mad and supply is thin in many areas so people will extend or upgrade rather than move.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Have you seen the prices for extensions?? Up nearly 40% from this time last year. I reckon only jobs that are a necessity will continue the vanity jobs are being stopped just ask any builder and if you have to borrow for the extension sure interest rates are flying up as well.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    They are taking on 50k debt.

    If the car holds onto the value they are fine.

    The car will only have value if the car can be sold on though.

    That’s how something gets value.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I think the difference in the CBI lending rules brought in post tiger are well offset by the low interest rates available to buyers post tiger.

    So all in all if rates rise people will be just as fcuked as during the tiger crash.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    A recession is nothing. Possibly this winter some people will be thinking twice about keeping themselves warm never mind caring about a drop in GDP for two successive quarters, recession or whatever it will be called will come later.

    The incoming cost of living crisis could make a recession sound like a holiday camp. Already in Europe in mid summer some people are being billed 2 thirds of the average wage for energy each month with government subsidies already, add on rent/mortgage on top what is left ?

    This is the problem massive increases in things that are essential to function, food and energy. If that does not change quickly we are ****ed as a society. Unless you are loaded that is.

    Minimum wages in Europe and bills paid in Euro's. Same price paid everywhere, how are people going to pay 8 times increases in energy bills ?


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As I’ve outlined above, there is little risk buying a 50k EV on PCP or HP right now given the supply shortages - loans always have risk but right now the risks are quite low



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The company in Eastern Europe country which preparing clean timber for building sites in Western Europe ( include UK ,exclude Ireland ) sending people home and the rest will stay on part time.Reason Falling demand .Them capacity before shrinking production was 20 000 cubic metres per month.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Why take in the risk with a recession on the horizon?

    Makes no sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    50k for a car is crazy at any time



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Suppose it depends on how much you earn, how secure job is, how much debt you are in etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,774 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Like most expensive things in life its not about the product itself. Whether it be a car/house etc. Its about feeling above others. You cant put a price on that for people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    I saw queue outside the penny dinners (soup kitchen) on Sunday morning and it really hit home to me how bad things are. What I saw was plenty of clean, decently dressed people there, didn't look homeless to me, mothers with kids. Real disheartening. I worked near it for years a few years back and it was generally all homeless.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Well that’s a sure fire way of fooking society up. Keeping up with the Jones’s and making the bankers Ritcher.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    I do not agree. There is plenty of cheap energy. Problem is that decisions are mostly made by the people who are not affected by what they decree. Climate change renewables push without proper thinking and infrastructure in place (most of it is still just hypothesis like some wonder plentiful batteries everywhere for everyone), covid response insanity and current anti russia virtue signaling are the best examples.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Got this information from my mate I meet in town,he is from Lithuania.I don't speak Lithuanian to Google it,the company name he said is Polywood.



    That all I found trough the Google using name of it .This guy doesn't spread BS,he just came back from holiday from home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    It is not about affordability. At the end of the day car is a car. It should drive you from point A to point B. With speed limits there is no point to have bigger or faster engine. Most of the difference is artificial. Some cooler paint, radio, aircon perhaps little more comfortable seats... All things you do not really need. Is it really worth it to work more and harder just to stick it to the neighbors?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Bizarre and pointless comment.

    Should we just close down the thread as you have spoken.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The more important things for me is have freedom without loans and have great job which I would love to come.The car woul be the last,I mean very last thing I would like to spend money on it .I will respect person with coin in a pocket with mortgage and loan free life more than person in a good car which brings last penny to the bank.Be a slave for financial institution and worry about every bill having stress of it definitely wouldn't be my life style.

    I remember I had replace engine in my car and putted 3.7K in cash on table in dealer garage in 2010.He asked me were did you get this money in such a hard times and what I usually do.Just a savings I said.He said what the point put so much money in 6 years old car ? I said I just don't want play lotto buying another used car.

    This car did another 230K for me after without any major issues.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The last 10 years or so has been risk free due to the low interest rates.

    There's a video on YouTube of the programme called property shock predicting Ireland property crash in 08.

    I'm on mobile at the moment but there's an economist there who is interestingly now one of Micheal Martins advisors who said "a booming economy and very low interest rates are a deadly combination".

    Now we're seeing why with the massive inflation.

    I don't think any major economists were worried about inflation at all, they thought it was impossible after the last 10 years.

    Rmemeber government announced four billion of stimulus 14 months ago and Leo said the economy will take off like a rocket as if that was a good thing.

    All that free money didn't turn out to be free after all. Everyone is paying for it with inflation now!



  • Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    exactly this. i'm also about to put a couple of k into an old car to keep it on the road as there's no point buying another used vehicle..better the devil you know.

    i learned from the last recession and am now going into this one debt free with savings...aside from the mortgage which i'm hoping to pay off in a couple of years when it comes off its current fixed rate, 10 years earlier than it's term.

    i couldn't tell you what kind of car any of my neighbours are driving and i really couldn't care less!



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Unfortunately most rockets fly up nicely but coming back falling apart and finishing flight badly.Did somebody said that to Varadkar?



    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,060 ✭✭✭Thespoofer


    Just out of curiosity Revolution 1917, what is your opinion on starting a pension for retirement or would you have other ideas, I genuinely would like to know your plans for later life.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Exactly. They have no choice but to pass on the cost. The problem is though their customer may not have gotten a rise in work and is dealing with all sorts of price increases so they don't come in as often.

    Iv no interest in paying nearly a tenner for 5 goujons and chips. I can't afford it! The company I work for have put their rates and products prices up but no pay rises for their staff!

    If this is repeated across the economy then a recession is inevitable . I would go as far as saying it has already started.



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