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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,652 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Update on bridge at Kherson.

    Also, as a side note, things really kicking off around Taiwan. Beijing has just warned commercial aircraft to steer clear of the Strait. However, looking at FR24, there seems to be no change with commercial traffic and military aircraft are conspicuous by their absence.

    Lots of transponders switched off or operating IFF, I imagine.

    China testing how the US would react to the live fire exercises, assuming that the US could be over-stretched. A mistake to assume such a thing as US asset management and logistics are a thing to behold. Will China, as Russia did, use the live-fire exercises as an excuse to position its assets for an invasion? OSINT community commentary seems to believe that China may take the smaller islands closer to the mainland as a response to Pelosi's visit.

    While China does indeed use Russian equipment, their Military is a very different beast from Russia entirely. Binkov's Battleground has done a few invasion simulations on a China v US/Taiwan scenario and the US does not fare out as one would hope.

    This war has a high chance of opening up on two or three fronts. The next day or so is going to be crucial for Russia, China and North Korea.

    Kherson video..


    https://youtu.be/wTej48KE1bc



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,355 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Isnt this fantastic, wars escalating all over the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,660 ✭✭✭storker




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,652 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Absolutely. 12% N1, nudge throttle forward... lol.

    Made many trips in one in the early 90's from Weston to IOM for Mr. Gubay. Prop tips always appeared way to close to the fuselage. A very, very steady platform for what the US Army use it for.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,652 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    Slightly off topic, but Nancy Pelosi's aircraft, a USAF C-40, has just activated it's transponder on the tarmac at Taipei as she gets ready to depart.

    Even it's callsign, SPAR19, is quite apt.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭jmreire


    And its the world leaders that count....they understand very well the threat that Putin poses, and for certain sure, they are not dropping off the radar. On the contrary, they are ramping up their support for Ukraine,,,,you ain't seen nothing yet. We are facing a few tough months, but when spring arrives, if Putin is not gone before hand, he will definitely be so weakened by then, he won't be posing any threat to any one. ( except maybe rattling his Nukes around in a threatening war-like fashion. and at some point. he will be called out on that too) Slava Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,750 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    I just wonder in regards the equipment and supplies been given to Ukraine by America at the moment will that slow down if America believes there might be something very soon brewing with China over Taiwan. They might be thinking we might need this for ourselves. I suppose if we see supplies and equipment that was ear marked for Ukraine been halted or considerably decreased then there is a good chance America believes China will invade Taiwan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Good work Nancy Pelosi, the last person one expected to stand up for democracy, the western outlook and a defiant assertion of those.


    Xi is a more brutal and controlling leader than Putin, who is open and respectful of life by Communist standards .



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Agreed. Imagine how it would look if she didnt go because China said so.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    Yeah I read that the American navy etc. they have done a lot of war games in regards to this and America has lost most of the battles against China. The problem is the closeness of Taiwan to China and that the Chinese can launch ship killing missles from the mainland against US ships if they were trying to help Taiwan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,065 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The USA is really only able to wield soft power when it comes to Taiwan. Short of engaging in a war themselves with China, which is very unlikely over Taiwan, very different matter to supply weaponry in real time if there was a conflict. You'd think that whatever Taiwan needs to defend itself from military assault is already in place, insofar as it can be. More likely that China just keeps building business relationships with Taiwan and takes over it's economy effectively. A process of slow absorption.

    We theoretically could do the same with Northern Ireland, if we had the funds and the mind to do it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I agree 100% with your first sentence re Pelosi, but as for Putin being open and fair???? That's the last thing he is, Look at what he has turned Russia into in 20 years? He is just a mafia gangster, he thinks about himself, and himself only and has absolutely no compunction about using the iron fist against his fellow Russian's when he feels he has to, or even when he does not have a valid reason, but just to remind the population of the power he has over them. Monsters are monsters, wherever they come from, be it Russia or China. or elsewhere, and there are no good monsters any where in the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,660 ✭✭✭storker


    Never been in a real one - maybe some day. Just sims for now, but there are some good ones around. It reminds be a bit of the DH Mosquito, probably because of the far-forward in-your-face engines. 😀



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,278 ✭✭✭thomil


    I don't really see that as too much of an issue. Now granted, I'm not a military expert but looking at the map of Taiwan, the main role of the US would likely be to help cut off any PRC landing forces on the island from resupply by going after shipping and air traffic, rather than getting involved in the ground conflict. ROC air bases would likely be the first targets of any PRC attack and after the events of the push on Kyiv back in February and March, you can bet that Beijing's military commanders will not be taking any chances in that regard. That leaves USAF units based out of Kadena, strategic bombers from Guam and Continental US bases, and the US Navy's aircraft carriers and their air groups as the best options for the job.

    All these assets are not needed for the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is mainly a land war. If, or rather when the Taiwan situation boils over, I don't see that as any major drain on any US assets already in Army or Air Force warehouses. It might stretch the manufacturing capacities of US defense contractors though, once the warehouses are depleted. There are also two squadrons of logistics ships based in-theatre, one at Guam and one at Diego Garcia, that can supply a sizeable USMC force for 30 days. Once the war goes beyond that, or escalates even further, things could get dicey though.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    Possible alright China does look at the long ball. I say things would change if they heard America was going to supply Taiwan with the newest anti ship missiles etc. I say that would get China to invade then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It's not an endorsement of Putin but he certainly would not be as controlling or murderous as most of Russia or Chinese Communist leaders.


    It's not that he is nice but that they were so incredibly brutal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭RGARDINR




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    China would love to deliver a military defeat on the US and take Taiwan.

    But, the US mobilises for war like no other. Trade would cease with China and the US would pivot to home manufacture. It would be tough and not quick, but given a few years the world economy would look a lot different, and not to China’s liking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    No your absolutely right but I think that's the problem America was having in their war games against China over Taiwan was that its basically a navy war as such and to defend Taiwan their navy has to get close to Taiwan but with Chinese ship killing missiles from the China mainland been launched at them and their own navy they realise they will loose most of their navy doing this. Its the distance they need to travel and the closeness from China to Taiwan for the American navy is the massive issue. Like you say this won't if it happens be really a ground war between America and China but a naval conflict.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Oh, give him the same situation as the commies faced, and then you will see what he's capable of,,,do you think that he would not turn his military on his fellow Russians if he had too??? AKA Tiananmen square? Is he capable of murdering thousands and thousands if the need arose? He has already shown what he is capable of in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭rogber


    From Chechnya to Georgia and Ukraine, from poisoning, shooting and locking up opponents to shutting down almost all independent media and amassing vast wealth for himself and his inner circle, Putin is not open and fair by anyone's standards.


    And yeah, Pelosi is a corporate stooge and religious moron, but when we look at the alternatives our incompetent democratic leaders are still a lot preferable to any dictatorship



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭Dufflecoat Fanny


    Needs to be done. Rather a bit of flash and feathers than holding all in and springing when desperate



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,750 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    So Pelosi been and gone and China did the square root of fcuk all. They have been exposed as NK on steroids and Winne the Poo Xi is all mouth




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭Dufflecoat Fanny


    What's the story with Sudan if Russia pulls out? Is that a tinder box? I haven't had the time to read into it.

    Syria without Russian support will surely collapse and Assad overthrown. Will all the focus in the middle east point to Iran?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    If the west was taking a long term view here, I think it should be something like as follows. Give Ukraine everything it needs and wants to win this war and rout Russia. Grind the Russian economy into absolute dust. Push into some of Russia as insurance, with the possibility of retuning some of that land after a period of good behaviour. Force Russia to come to the most humiliating of peaces. Demilitarise it. Basically do to the Russians what was done to the Germans after World War II.

    Then offer to bring them in from the cold on the explicit proviso that Russia's land, resources and people will be used to work as part of a new western order, over which it gets no say, at least in the initial period, but which will benefit it massively in the long run.

    The west exploited Germany's geographical dilemma to bring Germany in from the cold. Germany was trapped between two superpowers - the west, and the Soviets. West Germany was extremely happy to be on the western side post World War II because the alternative was being controlled by the Soviets (and obviously a portion of it was, which worked out disastrously). West Germany being on the western side brought peace and prosperity, freedom, sensible social democracy.

    Russia faces a similar geographical dilemma. It is a failed power which is trapped between two superpowers. On the other side of it lies China.

    If Russia is routed in this war, as it needs to be, does it then want to be a vassal of China, or a vassal of the west - with the long term possibility of becoming an integral part of the western order like Germany is now, if it undergoes decades of real reform?

    I think it would choose the latter. But to do that it first has to be utterly routed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    This has been reported aplenty now, but, it begs a question, does Russia have anyone left to defend itself in the event of an attack? Russia is a big country with a long border to the east where it has neighbours that might not exactly be as pally with Putin as the kremlin thinks.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    IAEA: Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant 'out of control.' Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Zaporizhzhia plant


    Dundalk, Co. Louth



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Russia doesn't need anyone to defend itself tbh. Any invasion will be meet with a nuclear weapons launch so it will never happen. Don't get me wrong i'd love to see it happen and a march on Moscow to remove the problem once and for all but it's wishful thinking.



This discussion has been closed.
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