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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,261 ✭✭✭Gant21


    We will see the government buying all round them shortly. Some refugees are here 4 moths now and are expecting a home. The pressure is building.



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭dragonkin


    I've been keeping an eye on the myhome price changes in my area (Mid West) there are definitely downward movements in house prices now and they're becoming more frequent. There are new builds near me that I thought would be sold quickly (in fact I thought the email list would buy them before they hit the open market) and other properties that have actually reduced their price.


    However the state of a lot of the properties for sale is shocking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,757 ✭✭✭C3PO


    Put our 3 bed in South County Dublin up for sale approximately 4 weeks ago. Four very interested parties and went Sale Agreed at over asking last week. No sign of any softening in our area.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    " softening " is too strong a word to describe the market right now , at best the rate of growth has slowed



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Seeing an increase in the number of alerts I'm getting. Still way overpriced but nice to see an increase in number of alerts. Possibly more houses coming online or more houses being just below my 250k alert limit.



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  • Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    put my house for sale on Monday (South East Meath), 3 viewings every day since. Auctioneers said I'm likely to get sale agreed in 3 weeks but I'll wait and see how it goes. Viewings don't mean offers !



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,091 ✭✭✭Sonny678


    Hard to know if there is a softening are not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,077 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo




  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭redsheeps


    Full July '22 update.

    The first graph below is based on data from all 5,557 property price changes on MyHome beginning on 15th July 2021 and ending on 31st July 2022. Note that July 2021 does not contain full month data so I have turned this data into a percentage in an effort to capture the ratio of changes.

    The second graph below shows the actual numbers of monthly price changes from August 2021 to July 2022.

    Note that this data INCLUDES prices for sites.




  • Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭WhiteWalls


    I do love a good graph but hate being so stupid



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,397 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Well its clear from the Graph that there are lots of sellers out there chancing their arms, asking unrealistic prices.... and with the volume of properties on the market to sell trending up, it may continue.

    However, there is still good demand out there and good properties in good locations will attract big money. I wonder if this is a permanent thing or still an offshoot of Covid Savings.



  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    There is definitely less frantic bidding. I feel like people are genuinely concerned about buying at top and facing into rising rates and potential recession. There is certainly more nervousness and I dont think people are rushing to buy out of fear it will be 10% dearer next year as had been the case



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    As I said before, still getting more property alerts. Prices for most are still crazy though.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    The property market doesn't seem to have collapsed just yet anwyway, six months on from the start of the invasion of Ukraine.

    We should have the June figures from the CSO over the next few days which will be interesting to see what is really happening in the market aside from all the anecdotal takes. The trend at the start of the year into recent months has been a slowdown and then fallback in the rate of growth in property prices, but they're still increasing all the same (16.6% 12 month increase as of May).

    The percentage rate of increases year-on-year was still higher in May than at any other point in the last five years prior to the onset of the surge in prices since the lifting of Covid restrictions. There is a long way to go before the CSO index goes into negative territory in terms of housing prices.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,684 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    From my current experience, older houses requiring work to be done to them are moving at a snails pace in terms of bidding.

    One older property I was in last week that has been recently renovated is inundated with bids, a bidding war with several increasing offers per day from multiple bidders. Similar properties in the same locality requiring moderate amounts of work being sold by the same EA are lagging way behind in terms of interest.

    A crash isn't coming, but the frenzied bidding of the last few years isn't as apparent.

    The biggest issue I've encountered is sellers expecting insane bids that they could have gotten last year being unable to face up to the reality that while the gold rush isn't over it has slowed down a notch or two recently.

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users Posts: 707 ✭✭✭you2008




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The ecb need to increase rates big time. Thats when the squeeze will really happen. Canada and nz both increasing rates faster and house prices are forecast to drop by a good lot.

    Parts of the US also seeing substantial drops.

    Ukrainians also propping up the market through the rental demand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Doesn't seem to be any softening in Wicklow!

    Nicely constructed house but very small garden. I guess we just have to get used to 4 bed family homes costing over a million going forward.

    Is there really that many people in Ireland able to get that amount of money with the current banking loan multiples?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Thought that looked decent value.

    Good size, lovely finish, A rated house right in the very middle of Greystones. Will be interesting to see what it makes now as I think it would have made decent bit more than that earlier this year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Thanks Datadude, not familiar with the intricacies of Greystones so interesting to know it represents value. The garden is too small for us and to be honest the sloping roofs in the bedrooms not great. I wouldn't like to go higher than 900 as we'll likely sell after we buy. Just wondering how many people out there can afford 1 million+ houses. I guess it must be a lot?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Agreed on garden but that’s a really prime location in Greystones, so unless you have few million, decent gardens aren’t really a thing. Value subjective I guess but it’s very close to the new builds in Sillan which made more than that.

    We bid on 10+ houses in similar price range in the area over the last two years. In my experience it’s very rarely people with mortgages covering 80%+ of the cost. It’s either middle aged couple who’ve just inherited money, couple upsizing with huge tax free capital gains or else elderly couple downsizing (to a 5bed?). Very frustrating and don’t know how it can be sustainable but there was no shortage of them when we were looking!



  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭redsheeps


    Unfortunately the data available doesn't include whether the properties were new builds or not. Sorry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭wassie


    Just wondering how many people out there can afford 1 million+ houses. I guess it must be a lot?

    The Independant published an article today on the number of €million property sales in the last 6 months (paywalled).

    On a national basis, across all 26 counties, there were 129 residential property sales in the first six months of last year valued at €1m or more.

    That figure had soared to 178 for the first six months of this year – an increase of 38pc.


    €1m-plus home sales (Note: Counties with zero sales are not shown)




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It is way too soon to see market trends in the statistics. What will be showing in the current statistics is deals which were concluded some months ago, many in the latter quarter of 2021. Befoa drop in prices shows in the statistics, deals at lower prices have to be concluded. there is inevitably a period where properties linger on the market before vendors realise that they have to lower the price to get a deal. That will be preceded by a rise in the number of available properties and a longer time lag before offers materialise and sales conclude. Rising interest rates are only beginning to kick in as a factor and the war in Ukraine hasn't had any significant economic effect yet other than to make the supply of property even scarcer.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    It's not really accurate or fair to say it's too soon to see market trends in the statistics. The CSO primarily use Stamp Duty returns from the Revenue Commissioners to determine property sale prices, and use early returns to determine their preliminary results which are published on a monthly basis. Legally Stamp Duty returns have to be submitted 44 days after a sale closes. They’re not lagging months behind. The results are provisional for a period of 3 months, after that they're revised and made definitive.

    The methodology is clearly set out and readily available by the CSO. Their figures give a fairly solid insight into what properties are selling for within the last quarter. Why do you think sales are taking up to a year to close? That's not the reality on the ground whatsoever in the vast majority of cases. The average length of time from sale agreed to the sale closing is probably around 4 to 6 weeks at the moment.

    We've plenty of anecdotal accounts and stories to go by in this discussion, but at the end of the day the CSO are really the only reliable figures we can go by to give us an insight into what is happening in the market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    "The average length of time from sale agreed to the sale closing is probably around 4 to 6 weeks at the moment" - I only have anecdotal experience for maybe a dozen or so people, but this is absolutely miiiiiiiles off what they experienced.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,542 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Not a hope sales are closing in 4 to 6 weeks, the average would be at least double that.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    It's what I am experiencing anyway. Get a decent solicitor.

    Regardless, the CSO figures are solid. Property prices are still increasing as of now, there are no other facts or figures to tell us otherwise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    4 to 6 weeks you obviously have not bought or sold in the last 2/3 years double that at least. Between banks, solicitors and estate agents going on a go slow and then if you run out of time you have to reapply for the mortgage, 4 to 6 weeks is really not at all representative of the average time it takes



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,482 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I actually was involved in a transaction that closed just two weeks ago. 5 weeks going from sale agreed to keys being handed over. Not everyone is experiencing onerous delays. That's my anecdotal evidence for the discussion.



This discussion has been closed.
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