Public Pay Talks - see mod warning post 4293

I would like to see growth in perpetuity (this has never ever happened anywhere globally, everything tends to run in cycles), but all indicators are that we are going into a recession, jobs are being lost (this will be shown in the next 6 months unemployment figure and income tax take), prices are going higher and higher. I reckon give it another 10/12 weeks and we will see an uptick in uneployment and a downward effect on tax. The upcoming budget will be very interesting to say the least.

There also seems to be a lot of hiring freezes from the MNCs globally, our consumer confidence is at its lowest for nearly 2 years (yeap even when there was a pandemic people are more pessimistic now than they were back then), this will all impact but like everything this will move slowly, we are only out of a pandemic and people are trying to get back to normal and are spending due to all time high savings in Irish bank accounts during the pandemic, yet a lot of companies went into the pandemic in a sh1t state they where kept on life support by covid payments and these will be the jobs that will go first, after this watch for the Winter when the weather is not so good, inflation on things like heat and food not to mention at least 1 more interest rate hike to be added by the end of the year and you will see a diminishing return on what the average household has to spend on other goods and services such as going for a coffee, getting that breakfast roll in the morning, this type of spend is the first to go then things like vanity work being done to the house and other things that people when they think about can do without for the next year or so these will also be put on hold - this will add to further job losses (companies feel all the hikes in prices and interest rates as well as the man on the street) and then watch it unfold. I hope I am wrong but all indicators are pointing in this direction.

So 240 billion in debt, a recession confirmed in the US , Germany (economy on the brink due to dependence on Russian Gas) and the UK hitting hardships (BOE latest forecast is something you need to look at), add in costs for every one and every business going higher and higher, increases in interest rates, our GNP retracting by 1% for the Q1 2022, consumer confidence down to lowest point in nearly 2 years and you think these are not indicators, these things have happened or are currently happening and you think Ireland is just going keep on going gang busters with our open economy and not feel any of it :) your must be having a laugh, there are enough indicators there that are pointing at a recession but you keep burying your head in the sand there. Listening now to Pat Kenny saying the gov are introducing a third tax band also this morning and the NTMA using 6 billion to pay off some of the 240 Billion debt in cash, then another 3 or 4 billion for increases in ps wage . The questions have to be asked where are they getting cash for all for this and what happens when our finances are hit by the recession and is there a hole in our finances with regards to our dependence on MNC - there are already hiring freezes throughout the top 10 companies in this bracket.

Well conditions would be to see if the inflation is here to stay or just upped by a war, covid, brexit and the related supply line issues. Our debt would need to be brought well down maybe halved. We would need to be weened off our tax dependency on MNCs. The outlined will take time so lets leave it simple give it 12 months if we are not in a recession and inflation is still as high as it is today by all means go ahead with the raises, but no point giving raises on an inflation argument and then running for cover if we have deflation and public sector wages have to be cut to match it.

Yeah it is as the government giving pay rises now will only further fuel even higher inflation, same goes with the new tax rate idea being floated I think that is a bad idea as well (even if I would benefit massively financially). We either deal with it now or we keep going on the never never and then it will be a hell of a lot worse in a year or 2s time. You cannot give a pay rise based on inflation that will be shown to be temporary, we have had a bad run since 2019 (Brexit, Covid, Ukraine) and because of a temporary excess of monies in the governments account due to the tax payer been taken to the cleaners by our government as they are getting all kinds of windfalls in taxes due to the higher costs from VAT from things like the petrol pump and electricity and as pointed out to me we are at full employment so income tax is also up. Yet the current situation will not continue, you cannot see the issues in places like the US, UK and Germany and think Ireland will be AOK not with the way our economy functions and has always been swayed by the open market and those 3 countries combined would probably be the top 3 countries that would influence Ireland in things like imports, exports, travel, energy, currency, employment and nearly every other facet of life/economy that trickles down from that list .. I have outlined that we will see a number of companies hit the wall (the cats on the street know this) between now and next year. So when this happens and the taxes are now in a deficit again and we cannot afford what we are spending do we borrow the excess on the higher interest rates?

Do you not think that the government need to be somewhat measured with everything that is currently going on. But this wont happen as this will FF/FGs last time to have a give away and hopefully try and sway some votes so the goodies will be flowing in the next budget and will mean the next lot in government will have an even bigger mess to deal with

Equally, rates of pay have to be competitive at higher levels to get and retain staff. In our department we are finding it very difficult to get specialist staff as the pay and conditions are not as good as the private sector.

Is it still at a stand still? they will need to get on and negotiate a pay rise before winter kicks in. Inflation is rampant and energy is going to cost a bomb.

Cheers. Made my week.