China’s Army posts “Preparing for war!”

If you yourself had checked you would have found many reports :-

Because none of the 9/11 hijackers came from North Korea, it’s less despotic than Saudi Arabia? You are actually presenting that as a coherent point?

In terms of Yemen, are you just taking despotic as a synonym for bad? If so, that’s a different conversation and not really a fair comparison. Saudi Arabia is a powerful and wealthy nation in a highly unstable region with huge scope for foreign policy projection. North Korea is far poorer and crucially is surrounded by stable, wealthy, military competent neighbours, it has essentially zero scope for foreign policy projection. Similar to looking at the history of US foreign policy compared to Chinese foreign policy, it’s not comparing like to like, one nation has an almost infinite scope to project abroad while the other is highly constrained.

The North Korean state assassinated Kim’s brother in public, in a foreign country, in a terminal of one of the busiest airports in the world, with nerve agent.

I tried to understand what point you were making there and draw some more conclusions from it. It wasn't totally clear to me, other than "both are to blame here" (what you said to me in another post) and "US is deliberately manipulating this situation to provoke China e.g. Pelosi visit, so they can justify an increased military presence in Asia". Is that the jist?

So if "both are to blame" (which I disagree with), US is to blame isn't it? So how should they approach China to reduce tension?

Logically, all they can really do to calm that situation is stop the overt political support of Taiwan, so no more politicians visiting, no pesky statements made about Taiwan being democratic or Taiwanese being "free to choose their own path", no more weapons sales, and at a minimum not increase or preferably draw down current strength in Asia, move it back home (if decreasing it), because increased capability will certainly further "provoke" China and the peace-loving CCP.

Of course such policies would be fairly nuts for the US to adopt (imo) and won't make the situation more stable, but there you go.

edit: not a reponse to you, but may as well link it here as don't think it was before. Pelosi had an opinion piece a few days ago in Washington Post explaining her rationale for the visit (for what it is worth).

Lithuania to send delegation to Taiwan for a 5 day visit from Sunday.

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Yeah on this rare occasion I have to agree with the previous poster.

China is be no means pathetic and you have no idea how this event is being spin in the Chinese media.

The Chinese government will most likely talk it up as depite America trying to push its colonial interests in Taiwan China displayed its military might to show them they will not be pushed around.

Nothing pathetic from China both sides are playing a PR battle to their home crowds and the reality of the situation really doesn't matter much.

@[Deleted User]

I would dispute the history somewhat. It's leaving out some more recent events. Yes they have never trusted the CCP fully, but the US did spend the post Cold war period up to leadership of Xi Jinping removing the barriers to economic and societal interaction with China and generally cosying up to it. If China offered any encouragement to improve relations (which they often did, they badly wanted access to US & Western know how and technology to develop) it was accepted. That process began with US effort to unfreeze relations with China somewhat during the 60s so as to split it from Soviet Union and weaken the US's main enemy. I'm sure you'll just dismiss all of it as hypocrisy and greed again given US (or the US companies and wealthy interests) got massive benefits out of the process at least at the start, but the 90s-10s period in particular did IMO improve US-China relations.

As regards the US influence and military presence in Asia threatening China, after the Cold war ended they became the sole remaining superpower. A country is not going to to secure a dominant position like that, claim victory, step back and leave others to it. There was no one left any more to strongly contest their influence anywhere on Earth (incl. in Asia - right up to China's own borders), or the expression of it or expansion of it for good or ill. It is a different world now of course but the existing fact of US military presence in Asia and alliances and relationships between the US and China's "tributaries" (as they see it) or "sphere of influence" developed and grown when China was weaker than today, is something they will just have to live with (and manage peacefully) unless they really wish to wage war over it to push it out.

As regards China expanding its' own influence close to the US, I believe that process is well under way. Eventually they will have some naval (or "dual use" civilian) bases in S. America/Central America, their carrier fleets sailing in international waters, which the US can't object to, will be probably regular visitors to their friends in the region. I'd give it another decade on current progress and they will be same as the US, strings of bases and safe harbours all over Earth incl. the Americas and between 10-20 large fleets of warships each with a "supercarrier" based airforce (bigger than most nation states total air power on its own) ready to scare and bully any weaker nation or pummel it to dust when someone has really annoyed them by not kowtowing to leader correctly or whatever. Unless China's power collapses the US cannot stop that process, and contrary to what you believe, I don't think they will be willing to go to war with China to prevent this (edit: I admit it may depend on how near any new Chinese base is to the US, what they have there + how much they feel it might change the balance of threat in a nuclear war - e.g. if China tries to place missiles + launch infrastructure very close, similar to Cuban crisis). Much more likely to be some events in Asia, a Chinese action, over Taiwan or elsewhere, and a US response, that spark some US-China war.

Look, despite the lengthy bit above arguing you are leaving out some recent history + my other responses I agree with alot of your post(s) on the thread. My short posts here were challenging what some others wrote specifically about this visit (Pelosi the "warmonger" narrative) and the Chinese (over)reaction to it.

On this website/forum there is definitely not some desire to skip over the evils or mistakes of the US (!) since, in case you had not noticed, it is like the Island of Dr Moreau, crawling with weird accounts propagating their various outré political beliefs, maybe even some genuine Russian bots looking at posting patterns, odd people who gush and get all excited over a dream of Chinese "wunderwaffen" being deployed to level Taiwan + sink the US carrier fleets etc. I see no need for me to start listing out all evils and hypocrisies of US foreign policy etc. to be fair and maintain some balance that doesn't exist.

edit:

Yes, there is huge economic interests but I don't think there's US soldiers or bases present in Taiwan (afaik?). They occasionally sail their warships through the strait, which angers China, and they sell weapons to Taiwan but there is no US base. Something like that being created today (given proximity of Taiwan to China) probably would spark a huge Cuban Missile type crisis between US and China with US in the Soviet role.

@[Deleted User] Just responding to a few specific bits of that:

Sorry, I meant that you'd treat it cynically (which you kind of did), see it as a quid pro quo on both sides, and that it was entirely about greed and economic benefits for the US side. In other words there was no hope on the US side for a non-zero sum exchange, that maybe China would change as a result of the interaction, become more democratic (likely resulting in much improved US-China relations), that was just sugar coating or fluff perhaps? I think you would be wrong about that, I think the likes of Clinton who pushed those policies did believe the process would drive political change in China/CCP more than it did.

Can't deny that. Sensible that they held onto it in Asia, as it turned out. I find it difficult now to believe being very trusting + dismantling it as a "peace dividend" during the post Cold war period (as well as growing those economic ties with China) would have affected China/CCP positively or increased stability/chances for peace in Asia.

I think you are wrong there. That doctrine is from an age ago, and will prove to be outdated and impossible to maintain. Unless it is a situation very like Cuba + involving nuclear weapons, I expect the US will just have to tolerate + grumble about growing activities of the Chinese military in "their" hemisphere. There will be at least some countries open to it; at the moment it is Venezuela I think that is growing relations with China very quickly. The US are probably going to get much more (economically) pushy with their neighbours again over this + force some harder choices on them a bit like the Cold War (you can deal with us and our allies, or else deal with likes of the Chinese - not both of us!) if globalisation is starting to retrench a bit now, but that is not going to war.

The US don't sign up to international agreements that they believe put them at some disadvantage or limit their power to act and they are able to shape the pitch and do this (just as China and Russia can to a lesser extent) but I don't actually recall them pushing others to sign up to agreements when they outright refuse themselves (?)

There can be arguments between branches of US govt., one party has the Presidency and the other the Congress, preventing the US from acting itself on a foreign policy inititaive the Presidency is pushing (this has happened with Climate Change agreements) or else the growing polarisation between their two political parties get manifested outwardly in about-faces in (some) foreign policies after presidential elections, but that is not the same as the kind of deliberate hypocrisy you are suggesting.

edit:

I don't think the visit was a "set up" anyway. Seems the President and US military were not very keen on this visit happening but I can see all kinds of political reasons why Biden might not have wanted to openly exert pressure to try and stop it. I admit I don't think it was a good time for it, given the state of the world.

This does not change fact that she has the right to go and doesn't need CCP permission, there's nothing unprecedented about it + it has no effect on US policy in reality. The Chinese threats and sabre rattling on the run up were reckless and the exercises and missile firings are an over the top reaction. Dangerous for them also, because they raise up huge expectations that in the end they can't meet without doing something very stupid + perhaps starting a war.

Glad it gave someone a laugh!...

Probably a good attitude I should take on board too.

@[Deleted User] Once again just responding to a few bits of that I find debatable...

Well everybody has their cultural conditioning and biases, nothing shocking about that. While I have one hand tied behind my back in this discussion because you have lived there, I think that comparison is very unfair. Here the state/authorities will generally leave you alone once you don't break the law, there are always multiple viewpoints & multiple sources of information. It's a strength I suppose, but also a weakness that is being turned against us now (by both China and Russia, as the internet gives them such easy access). There (as far as I understand), you have the approved source of truth, the state works very hard to lock out and also to demonise non-CCP approved views as unpatriotic & unchinese and there is a constant effort to promote this patriotism/nationalism intertwined with trusting the CCP to always know best. You're going to have to do much more thought and self-reflection to get over the barrier mentally (harder and more important than finding alternative information using VPNs or whatever and getting outside the "firewall" from inside China). Stray too far from the program and manifest this in making public criticisms of the party/leaders and their decisions, and you could risk the state coming down on the head of you and your family like a ton of bricks + crushing you. That's got to be...discouraging...of ever thinking about things, questioning what you have been told too much.

These other Asian countries (that are democratic) are not organised in same way as we would like but they are not China. Would people living in them like being dumped into a China system with their own version of the CCP apparatus and a strong leader-for-life like Xi tomorrow? I doubt it. They are democracies, even if they are very different culturally/socially to this country.

Given that there are such Asian democracies, I am unsure if it is all about a Chinese cultural disregard for democracy/freedom vs "good"/stable strong leadership that Clinton and co. did not appreciate when they were pushing the failed policies of increasing engagement with China. I think they badly underestimated the ability of CCP to keep a very tight rein on the society and also keep the Chinese economy growing, people happy + getting richer, and the country developing too. They though the country would have to become freer to keep getting richer, that the CCP would lose some control over the wealthier/better educated middle classes who would demand more freedom + push internal change to be more like the West, but this did not come to pass. Maybe an error of too much linkage of capitalism, markets and development of a country with democracy and individual freedoms, a belief that they must go together rather than fact capitalism and markets + prosperity is compatible with many kinds of political system incl. a very brutal autocracy/dictatorship.

Unfortunately, it was a nice idea but that doesn't seem to have worked as well as was hoped + the costs of such openness to China have also gotten high (imo). It's not just stuff like spying and IP theft etc. I think the CCP (+ Russian regime) and their trolls and influencers are having a bit more success driving some "social change" here in the West by spreading and fostering internal corruption or using the internet to hammer wedges into the fissures they can find. An awful lot come here just for what they can take from the West and its systems (a nice holiday, an education, investments etc.) - that is human nature, but they still hate us very deeply and want to ruin our societies and see us fail - that belief system is not going to be shaken by some short period of time spent here. Their behaviour is deeply parasitic basically, they provide no benefit or are a net negative. I would give alot fewer travel/study visas out to them and send some of them living here now back home, if I had that power but doesn't seem to be a popular pov.

I think you know what I meant. You've argued previously that die is cast in Asia, there will be war thanks to both US and China. You blame the US at least equally with China or maybe more than China for that, so perhaps some different US actions in the past could I assume have improved the situation in Asia (with a focus on the military infrastructure they have there which threatens China and was always maintained despite end of Cold War and improvment in relations) So logically another course of action would have been to have approached the Chinese, and their allies (Taiwan, Japan, S. Korea etc.) and openly said they'd like to draw down some or all of what was in Asia post Cold war and withdraw. That process is what would have required alot of trust in the CCPs bone-fides, taking it on faith (i.e. trust) they did not believe any more that political power grows from the barrel of a gun (!) and would not see the US effort at conciliation as fatal weakness.

I know this process is a threat to the US, and I know the US is going to hate it and be angry. I just can't see how they can prevent it happening forever, same as China can't end the US's existing relations with its neighbours in Asia by sabre rattling & threats of force. The US does not have the level of power/control over the world (or the Americas) it had during the Cold War let alone in the period just after the Cold War ended.

Anyway I am certain China will test this once they can get the right friend/client who is okay with taking on the risks of "tweaking the nose" (!) of the US severely in this way in exchange for whatever benefits China can give. I suppose they'd have to be large benefits given the risk, but then China has a lot of money and power now to provide these benefits.

The first stage would be political agreements and "dual use" infrastructure in such friendly countries that the Chinese visit rather than base at permanently. China are already constructing and operating lots of ports around the world. Such infrastructure with right political agreements and preparation could be put to use very quickly by the Chinese military during a crisis/at need.

On permanent nukes + missiles it is very hard to hide things these days (even in the 60s, the Soviets could not cloak their actions in Cuba + what they were trying to do there). The US will know exactly what China is up to. If/When China has a friendly port somewhere in the Americas and the US spots it trying to bring in an arsenal of nuclear weapons that can strike the US cities from there, there will be much more serious trouble over that I expect than the development/growth of Chinese military links + "friendly" ports/bases, just like with Cuba.

You're welcome.

@[Deleted User]

I can't deny there is orthodoxy that comes through in the state media here (esp. when reporting on domestic stuff) - am sure it is the same everywhere. They will also be loath (in any country) to attack the govt. too hard since it can make life painful for them, particularly if they go for the jugular on an issue, and make some mistake in their reporting. I can't see how that is avoidable tbh and I'd still far, far rather have the reasonably independent state media funded by a licence fee, than not have any state media at all.

I honestly have not noticed RTÉ banging on about the "far right" or labelling large groups of people as such, or pushing that demonisation of the handful of politcians that have poked their head up + gone against the status quo / govt. positions about immigration in the way you claim it does. I listen to the radio more than the TV and I'd read their website daily for both Irish and international news. There's enough others about the place in society (like our NGOs etc) to hound them - it has just not been a popular position I judge, not a vote winner. As you said, we don't really have far right politics here, at least not at a level where it has representation anywhere. There was a small bit more coverage of it on RTÉ during Covid-19 pandemic as the tiny element we have were making more noise, involved in protests in opposition to Covid restrictions/vaccinations etc.

I think perhaps you care about those issues and have opposite views to the status quo on them, so are alert to the orthodox/state view (i.e. immigration is beneficial to Ireland and the Irish - the more the merrier) and sensitive to when it is being promoted or just not being challenged. That still doesn't make what we get off our state media "propaganda", and just some mirror equivalent of what Chinese state media will put out.

Other than that, I think maybe we've beaten this to death & we're probably just going to have to disagree.

Yeah I know you never made an issue of it thanks, but one should be wary of disagreeing with someone who has first hand knowledge of the country.

Fair enough. I'm sure China have their problems (the US certainly does too) but I've been reading (Western) analyses of China that various policy mistakes are going to blow up disastrously in the CCPs face for a long time. Seems they've just kept on going, growing the economy, improving their technological/scientific base, increasing the power and capability of the military, even as Xi has become ever more dictatorial + they've hyped up the nationalism to fever pitch and let loose all these "wolf warriors" that seem to be great at provoking rows with other countries. I think even if Xi/CCP leaders are making some bad decisions, there's huge momentum behind Chinese development now that will keep the juggernaut going in spite of that + we have not seen the zenith of Chinese/CCP power in the world yet, so there's likely a rocky road ahead, as they butt heads with the US.

India doing its own mutterings about China in the Taiwan Strait.

China aren't going to war with the US any time soon. They can't afford it.

They've enough to do to keep their own house in order with the mother of all property crashes that is happening in China.