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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Absolutely.

    We should be in crisis mode regarding this- not panic mode- crisis mode.

    This would be in the national interest and should be portrayed as such in the media.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The simple signing off of lease undertaking on Barryroe could see an appraisal well drilled next year and production a couple of years after that.

    Sigh, here we go again. So Barryroe has about 30% the recoverable gas resources that Corrib had, so about 5 years supply.

    Also, Providence has zero intention of going after the gas during the first 2 phases and will only look at it (LOOK AT IT!!!) as part of the 3rd phase of development. That's puts the extraction (if it happens) at around 2037ish and it's highly unlikely they'll go near it as its not economically viable.

    You can verify all this by reviewing the investor info files publicly available on their site.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Just for the record I meant that the CNG storage tanks should be built for next winter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,005 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    To this Immediate Action list I would add an Immediate programme to INCREASE our National Herd of Cattle,Sheep & Pigs and incentives to return fallow land to grazing.

    If this disturbs the Green Party so be it.

    This country and Europe itself simply cannot continue to appease the likes of Eamon Ryan just because he's a bit of a dose,but sure'n he's a nice chap n'anyway.

    The Immediate future is bleak,but only because we have sacrificied commonsense & reason on the altar of attempting to influence the inevitable behaviours of a planet doing as it has done for 4.5 Billion years.

    It is Irish survival we need to focus upon now,rather than depending upon a European Union which will prioritize it's own majors before it looks to us...We KNOW this already ! 😨


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306



    I'm quite familiar with it ... which is why I know you're playing fast and loose with those numbers. There is absolutely nothing constraining the appraisal of the gas prospect during development of Barryroe oil. The idea that they would have to wait 15 years -- until after the oil is more or less played out -- is tosh. Much of the natural gas is "associated gas" -- you don't get to choose to develop it separately from the oil.

    Five years supply of natural gas is nothing to be sniffed at. However, the Barryroe east panel extends into the adjacent OPL/1 option area which potentially holds the same again. It is up to Eamon Ryan to license that block if he so desires. As licensing minister he holds plenty of cards in directing the work program. For instance, appraising the deeper Jurassic play below Barryroe is a condition of the existing license.

    The bottom line is that nobody knows what's there until it's appraised. Where did you get the idea that it's not economically viable? You do know that economic viability is a function of above ground factors too, particularly market price? Apart from all that, unless you're a dyed-in-the-wool cyclist like Ryan and haven't been near a petrol pump lately, you'll know that there's an oil supply crunch too. The world needs Barryroe oil.

    And finally, most of our gas-fired electricity generation is capable of running on distillate oil as a secondary fuel. Not a pretty option, but I can guarantee you that if we hit a serious power supply crunch we will burn everything that moves. The Greens don't seem to comprehend that the public will give short shrift to their pieties if the alternative is going back to the Middle Ages. It's the same lack of comprehension that makes them think the world is going to overawed by Ireland saving 0.05% of global emissions. (They will be, but only as an example of economic hara-kiri to be avoided).

    Post edited by ps200306 on


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Everything I stated can be verified on the Providence site. Their own documents state the viability of the gas reserves is borderline.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    Sure we can just Frack oil Greens did not ban that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306



    As I said before, I'm very familiar with those documents. I've also seen several of their technical presentations over the years which are not on the website. I've also been very interested as an "educated layperson" in the physics and economics of hydrocarbon exploration for more than 20 years, ever since becoming acquainted with how scarily dependent we are on fossil fuels. (It was around the same time I became aware of how out of touch the Greens are with physical reality).

    So I can quite confidently tell you that whatever you've inferred from Providence's statements is irrelevant. The economic value of resources in the ground is not a fixed quantity, and it's viability is not solely determined by geophysics. Price changes have a large impact on the classification of reserves, as do other non-physical criteria such as the cost of finance. The value of natural gas (at least since the shale revolution) compared to oil has typically been very low per barrel of oil (energy) equivalent. Back in 2014/15 that ratio changed by a factor of three when oil prices crashed. It changed again as oil prices recovered, and changed completely again when European natural gas prices spiked by 700% in the past year. You can see several different field development concepts from Providence over the years based on these non-physical factors.

    The thing is, all of them are just concepts until a final investment decision is taken. And that will be based on the factors that prevail at the time. The current high price of gas is a material factor, so I say again: the viability of any gas reserves in Barryroe is not some sort of "law of physics" that is fixed forever, and what you think the documents say is irrelevant. Even the physical factors aren't fixed across the field. The Lower Cretaceous horizon includes an upper sequence of gas rich sands and a lower sequence of oil rich ones. The only appraisal well that Providence have drilled was optimised for testing oil and ran into technical problems even at that. There are several other sand layers that haven't been appraised, and at least two older horizons at greater depth that are completely untested.

    Neither a geologist nor an economist could share your apparent level of confidence in the viability of Barryroe gas. And the company's own statements don't change that. The only thing that can change it is appraisal drilling followed by a financing plan, both of which have been held up at Eamon Ryan's whim for nearly a year and a half now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    Agree with ya man, must look up boats on done deal



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Don't wait, the perfect storm is coming, you need to buy a boat today, learn how to sail, navigate and survive extreme weather™. You will be able to visit me at my beach front property (admittedly its currently 200Mtr above sea level), however, I'll have the last laugh all those billionaires who own beach front property today and preach about climate change, will need a mooring place for their super yachts and I have the diesel supply (even better its green) and I have a generator in place today for electricity generation, plus a few acres of land, and a box of shutgun shells, access to turf and timber for heating, I'm all set. I'm ready today for the climate apocalypse, or is that the zombie apocalypse?, there are so many apocalypses now I can't tell, but I'm prepared.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We may need 'some' gas. The more renewables we build the less gas we will need. The less dependent we are on foreign imports of a extremely volatile commodity the more secure we will be



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We are currently on the RCP 8.5 pathway. The IPCC only says its unlikely because governments have committed to reducing emissions. You're on here saying we should break those commitments. If everyone's doing that then we're right back on the worst case scenario



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Of course we won't, it's something i made my peace with many years ago. Governments think in 4-5 year cycles not 50-100 years. The nonsense "solutions" governments have come up with like taxing people more are proof they've no interest in saving humankind.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,376 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Nope.

    You are imagining that the renewables that get built will be operating at their full capacity all the time.

    When the wind stops off for a prolonged period there is nothing to fill the void bar fossil fuels- until green hydrogen or some other mass storage gets invented.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Tax take is the only thing government is concerned with to look good.

    Every tax surplus is announced with glee.

    Energy supply will not be resolved unless there is a breakthrough on the tech side that can be rolled out quickly and be practical not some science project in a lab.

    Or backpedal and considering the best of a bad lot like gas and nuclear for the time being along with any renewables we can add to the grid.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Additional info sought from New Fortress Energy by ABP as some of their figures on emissions don't add up

    The party rep for Tralee, Anluan Dunne, says the letter directly references the 2021 Climate Action Plan and the National Energy Security Framework, which shows the impact that Green policies are having on fossil fuel infrastructure projects.

    He adds the company is being asked to elaborate on their emissions calculations, as its direct operational emissions figures appear different to those in the Environmental Impact Assessment Report.






  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Imagine how much more expensive our electricity would have been if we didn't have this




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306


    But you can't predict how much 'some' gas is. Nor can you predict how much these 'more renewables' are going to cost. So I presume you'd agree that Eamon Ryan's attempts to make sure we have no access to imports regardless of how his renewables experiment works out is the highest folly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306


    No we're not. You are making the same mistake that the media (and more than a few scientists) have continually made. RCP 8.5 was never the business as usual case. It was a no-climate-policy high emissions scenario based on high population and/or economic growth and a vast expansion in coal use by a factor of 6.5. Coal use peaked in 2014, and high population growth is already extremely implausible (and even more so under a high economic growth scenario). The IPCC itself has already been at pains to point this out. Please stop spreading confusion.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306


    New video on Ireland's energy supply plus all you ever wanted to know about the Inishkea and Barryroe hydrocarbon prospects. The graphs are scary -- our renewable energy output is often pitched in terms of share of electricity generation, ignoring that 87% of our total primary energy consumption is from fossils. Attempts to electrify transport and heating will have to take that into account. Puts Ryan's head-in-the-sand job into even sharper perspective.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306


    We don't have to imagine. We know. And the answer is -- not at all. Did you read the figures in your own article (despite it being a puff piece by the spokespeople for "Big Wind")? The wholesale cost of electricity was four times what it was two years ago. And that's because prices are not set by wind availability. You really should read up on this.

    And here's another thing. If fossil fuel prices went back to "normal" we would then be paying our new onshore wind providers twice the wholesale cost of gas-fired electricity, because that's the minimum they're guaranteed. Renewables are not saving us money either in a high- or low-price fossil fuel environment. We are being scalped.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭KildareP


    Up until about 10-15 years ago, we had a much more varied fuel mix for generation - oil with gas backup (Poolbeg - 511MW, Tarbert - 592MW), peat (West Offaly/Shannonbridge - 137MW, Lanesboro/Lough Ree - 91MW), and coal with oil backup (Moneypoint - 915MW).

    Today:

    • Poolbeg has been shut since 2008 and is long past being returned to use
    • Tarbert is operating at a fraction of it's rated output albeit with much of the plant kept in a standby mothball state but is due to be shut entirely next year
    • West Offaly closed in 2020 having been refused conversion to biomass
    • Lanesboro closed in 2020 under similar circumstances
    • Moneypoint had only really been used as a low scale winter baseload plant up until around 2020, having slowly being wound down over time. Since 2020 it's had to be online at a not-insignificant output year round (it's providing some 10-15% of our daily power demand all throughout the summer, which is anything up to 750MW of output at full demand) to maintain base load but it too is due to close by end-2025.

    In all of the above cases, the stations had a minimum 90 days weeks of fuel reserve onsite to operate at maximum station output.

    There wasn't any real need to store gas because those stations could supply as much as one-third of our peak demand, which although blackouts would have been a certain if gas was strained, they would have only really been during midweek times of peak demand and could be rolling by the hour, day, week, etc. We could also refire some of the existing gas turbine plants on oil if gas supply was going to be strained for an extended period.

    What we now face within the next two years is one-third of our daily peak grid demand being removed from our dispatchable generation capacity and no onsite fuel storage for any of our remaining generating plants at the same time as we are heavily pushing towards electrification of transport and heating thus meaning we need more generation capacity than we've ever done before.

    With no storage, if gas supply was suddenly disrupted onto this island at 1PM, we'll have very widespread power outages nationwide across the entire island before people will be starting into their commute home. And when they get home they may well have no heating, no lighting, no cooking, and within a few more hours potentially facing no water, no sewage and no mobile phone signal - if they even get home that is (no DART, no LUAS, no track signalling, no traffic lights, no street lighting, no automated level crossings).

    No time to plan, no time to prepare, no time to refire some of our plants on oil before a total grid shutdown happens, no possibility of minimising disruption to rolling blackouts to distribute the limited electricity evenly. We'll have little to nothing in terms of electricity within a matter of hours.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Interesting to note your video, where it discusses Barryroe, apart from a 5 second mention of the gas at that site, pretty much ignored it and just discussed the oil.

    So taking the same approach as Providence themselves



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭ps200306


    It was a five minute segment. The MMBO totals mentioned include BOE's of gas. But yes, no doubt, Barryroe is c. 90% oil. Also no doubt there is gas in the upper sands.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Wind Energy Ireland generate so much hot air, they could nearly drive their members turbines using their press releases, which also fail to explain how the grid runs when their members turbines could not generate sufficient power. Who generated 79% of the power? All wind turbines do is defer when the gas must be burned, they don't save any money and I have an electricity bill to prove it. The press release made no mention of the balancing costs incurred as a consequence of the turbines unreliability.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    If all the planned renewable capacity was at 100% all the time we'd be producing many times more electricity than we need. The plan is to install more capacity in the knowledge that wind and solar is variable. But it is very rare that there is no wind blowing off our shores and no sunshine for any extended period of time



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,276 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    And in the magical green world all this solar and wind power can be stored in the fairy storage land where the wind always blows and the sun always shines. Crock of shite more like it



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Storage is a 2030-2050 objective.

    80% renewable generation is the 2030 target.

    Apart from some battery installations and possibly Silvermines, there are no major storage projects planned for this side of 2030.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Because wind and solar are variable installed capacity is meaningless. As is the average percentage of installed capacity generated over a period. If you want 100% reliable dependable electricity from renewables then the installed capacity required is determined by the lowest percentage of the variables involved.

    We saw for long periods that on-shore wind was only contributing 6% and even lower of our daily requirements where we had installed wind capacity of 75%. That made the installed capacity meaningless as we would have required 16X that to achieve 100% of our needs. Now presumable someone has taken note of that in determining just what installed capacity we will need from on-shore, off-shore and solar to reach this 100% so what is it and how much will it cost ?

    As far as I can see nobody knows, and there is no plan other than to keep throwing money at it hoping to somehow, at some undetermined time in the future, get to a 100% dependable reliable supply of electricity from renewables. That`s not a plan, that`s a Hail Mary. And a money pit Hail Mary to boot.



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