FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

GFS 12z a fairly significant shift to warmer weather after a bit of a cool down this week coming. Hopefully we will see further shifts to high and dry over the coming days.

Yep Elmer, plenty of high pressure fests showing up recently on the GFS at least. Over the past year I have found the GFS far more reliable than the ECM or GEM when it comes to trends, sometimes the CFS extended also can show hints from along way out.

There is a good deal of uncertaintly over the next few weeks but I'll be amazed if we don't pull off another decent shot of summer before mid September. We are unlikely to see 30C again this year but a spell of low to high twenties with high pressure seems likely at some point over the next 2 to 3 weeks. As much as I would like a warm to hot September that can be a bad thing if you want to build up hopes of a decent winter and I have a feeling we're in for a rerun of September 2021.

Midway through May I thought we had finally broken the year long spell of high pressure fests and above normal temperature anomalies but I was wrong and here we are back in the same position as this time last year after a mostly dry and very warm 6 week spell since the start of July. The only difference between now and last year is that the first half of August has truly delivered and we may not be done with the warmth yet, probably just another brief interruption over the coming week before were back under high pressure central.

There hasn't been a single cooler than average month since May 2021.

GFS 12z isa bit more encouraging for next week. Between now and Monday doesn't look great temperatures genearaly mid teens to high teens, coolest on Saturday with low to mid teens generally. After Monday it should warm up with high teens to low twenties back and towards the final days of August hints of mid twenties but that is along way off. Hopefully over the next 5 days we will see further improving signals for sunshine and decent warmth for the final week of August. It can't be much cooler than it is today.

I wouldn't be planning any outdoor events this weekend as it will be a washout with bands of rain and showers on both Saturday and Sunday, between 10 and 25mm of rain over both days.

Fine settled weather should come back after this weekend towards the middle of next week. Next weekend could be very nice indeed but the warmth would not be to the levels we had over recent weeks.

Things look like they may settle down from next Thursday but it's going a little flimsy/messy at this stage and temperatures will remain close to normal or a little above at times between now and end of August. I don't think we will see temperatures much higher than 21 or 22C between now and the 1st of September. Certainly no signs of real warmth on the models other than standard end of summer fair weather for the final week of August which may not be completely dry.

The HP has been getting downgraded and pushed back for the past few days. It was originally supposed to become warm and settled on Monday, then Tuesday, yesterday it was Wednesday and now it's looking like all of next week will now be unsettled with things not settling down until the the final days of August with temperatures not that far from what we have right now. It could be September before this HP gets going and if it does get going it is likely to not last more than a few days at most as there is definite support for an unsettled and wetter than average September.

Just another 12 days and we flip into Autumn, once that happens I take off my sunglasses and start focusing on the winter.

I would like at least one more sunny week with warm temperatures just as long as it doesnt roll into the second half of September. I'd like autumn to begin properly around the 2nd week of September.

GFS 6z rolling out and it stays largely unsettled to the 30th of August and temperatures only begin to reach 21C around the 1st of September. The low pressure that we are currently under is going to cycle around us for the next 10 days.

GFS 18z showing some fairly warm conditions to build again from this weekend after a fairly cool day on Friday. Temperatures possibly getting into the mid twenties again across Munster, Leinster, mid western areas and low twenties across the northwest during the early days of next week.

Bring it on, a possible 3 to 4 day blast of late summer warmth.

The GFS has been showing that for the past week and on last nights pub run it gets going again after the above warm few days but as always it's FI and a full week away so i've been banking on downgrades to this scenario over the next week.

GFS 6z doubles down on high pressure even further with temperatures into the low twenties all the way to September 7th and little to no rainfall in most areas over the next 16 days. Lets see what the 12z brings. A huge difference on what the GFS has been showing for the past week.

Weekend looks mostly dry across the east, south and midlands, maybe the odd isolated light shower. A bit more rain towards the north-west but nothing heavy, just annoying light rain or showers hugging north-western areas.

Rainfall over the next 10 days looks very light away from western and north-western coasts.