Softening house market?

Small scale geo perspective:

There is zero data to suggest a "softening" of the residential property market in Cork City and Suburbs.

The demand is insane. Rents are still more than equivalent mortgage repayments - and there is no-where to rent to boot.

Anyone who believes there will be a "crash" in the next three years is kidding themselves.

then there is also the question of the reaction of the construction industry. Are they going to build less in order to keep supply low? This will most likely be the only measure to keep prices from dropping to much, I'd say.

Even if prices fall, the cost of construction doesn't (certainly not to the same extent). If prices collapse, builders won't build because it's uneconomical, not to limit supply.

Population of Manchester is twice that of Dublin. I suppose that would have nothing to do with it

Not a hope of a crash.

Too much cash in the system.

Too much demand, too little supply.

Should China economic difficulty, there is no obvious destination for emigration as a pressure release valve.

Not a hope of a crash.

I think people are scarred by the last crash and often confuse a downturn with a crash. I could definitely see a softening, as the title suggests, or a small correction (5 - 10%) but a crash like 2008 - not currently as it isn't a credit driven bubble like before. Unless a major geopolitical event takes place, but it's difficult to predict such things!

The last crash was a financial meltdown and a credit crunch. That may happen again, who knows with the banking sector. But the amount of pent up demand and lack of supply coupled with massive inflation in building costs and a shortage of skilled labour in the construction industry says to me the conditions are not there for a crash. But I do think the pace of increase will stop, it just becomes an affordability issue very soon. However, there are lots of people out there making lots of money and many others cash rich so what is for sale is snapped up.

Investors leaving the market is obviously a boost to supply but I haven't seen any figures as to the scale of this.

There are more houses for sale in the 4 local towns I look at buying in. I am a potential trader upper, just looking at options for now but there's defo more supply in all towns (about 20% up on what it was earlier this year).

Construction slowing significantly

"The pace of reduction in housing activity accelerated sharply over the month"

No it's not cyclical. There is evidence that builders providers have reduced staff hours/ put them on reduced weeks.

It was obvious that refurbishment, extensions and one off housing had stopped to a large extend. There was evidence as well that developers were reducing new starts.

How are prices heading for a crash. No houses being build. Unless we see a huge drop in building supplies prices we will not see any houses build. Even then construction may switch to smaller projects such as extensions, refurbishments and insulation upgrades.

There may be a 10ish% correction but if any more than that builders will just not build. No new supply could actually put upward pressure on prices of existing stock

If it encourages the activation of some of the tens of thousands of permitted developments not yet started, then yes. Or alternatively, if it forces speculative applicants to sell the land with permission at a reduced price that could improve the economics of development.

Yes. The latter is a big problem. Developers and speculators outbid each other stupid money for sites and then feel entitled to make X% margin on top of it regardless of the market or practicalities.

We saw in the last boom with the "Baron of Ballsbridge" paying 55m an acre for a site. They just keep outbidding each other and inflating the market and try to lump it onto the end consumer.

If they buy zoned land, they should not be entitled to sit on it until the market gives them what they demand. What adds most value to the land is the zoning. That zoning is a gift of administrators and planners (and the State) rather than an inherent characteristic of the property.

cant see it. price of building has risen a lot ove the last 12 months, all new builds coming on market now will have cost 15-20k or so more than what they would have cost in 2021. not sure why builders would need to take a hit when there is still huge demand.

Building materials will fall in price with recessions all over Europe and the world.

Timber has fallen 62% in North America.

https://fortune.com/2022/08/07/lumber-prices-lumber-bubble-when-to-expect-the-lowest-wood-prices/

what i mean is people arent starting extensions in december, residential building has always been cyclical, without seeing other reports it is hard to take much from the one off report

extensions attic conversions etc have been off the charts here recently, that work is finite and being driven by the inability to move to a bigger house, its also summer work, dies off at the end of the summer