Softening house market?

It might be that way. However something certainly is off.

You look over to Manchester and see new built after new built, high rise after high rise which wasn't there a while ago, even an airport connected to a rail service, and you wonder, why this isn't happening in Dublin.

Economically, purely from data interpretation, Dublin seems stronger still. However some things apparently won't happen. One only asks why.

You're a bit all over the place here.

The rail link to the airport has nothing to do with the housing market. Whether prices are rising by 20% or falling by 50%, there isn't a train.

There have been lots of proposals for high rises in Dublin. They've run afoul of planning rather than demand.

The market may soften, especially if interest rates keep going up, but none of these things is an indicator.

I know, it's a discussion which easily goes into the "what's this got to do with that".

However one would expect a certain infrastructure, if one is spending a bit of cash on a property investment.

I recently took a look at Canada, notably Toronto. Market was red hot, demand high, sales cycles short, even sometimes one million over asking for a house. Little supply, massive demand, easy money around, low interest rates. Now things changed massively and are about to change.

Blindness is the basis of the beginning of any downturn in the market. What's the one got to do with the other, here we're seeing none of that of other cities and countries.......

I took a look at Canada too, their property market never dipped after the 2008 global meltdown and it went through the roof during Covid. Whereas we're only just getting back to 2007 levels now, prices there are about 2.5 times what they were in 2007. There is enormous scope for a correction there but I'm not sure how relevant it is here.

Again, the market may slow down or shrink but it will be the ECB and/or war in Ukraine that does it, none of this other stuff is relevant to us.

Investors leaving the market causes rental shortages and reduces occupancy rates making matter worse no matter what way you look at it

any link to the actual report? How does this relate to any other year, is it cyclical

Construction is fecked again. What a surprise.

Running out of buyers at these prices. Add in interest rate rises and its inevitable that prices are heading for a crash.

Definitely need a significant vacant site tax brought in as soon as possible.

Yes. The latter is a big problem. Developers and speculators outbid each other stupid money for sites and then feel entitled to make X% margin on top of it regardless of the market or practicalities.

We saw in the last boom with the "Baron of Ballsbridge" paying 55m an acre for a site. They just keep outbidding each other and inflating the market and try to lump it onto the end consumer.

If they buy zoned land, they should not be entitled to sit on it until the market gives them what they demand. What adds most value to the land is the zoning. That zoning is a gift of administrators and planners (and the State) rather than an inherent characteristic of the property.

I agree. Councils would be a waste of time.

But it could be done by revenue.

There already is a Vacant Site Levy.

It is not effective.

It is rarely enforced. It exists almost in name only. It would not be difficult to have a tax on zoned land. If you don't want to pay the tax, then you can submit proposals to have the land rezoned back to agricultural or green belt or similar.

You could have a reasonable grace period of a waiver for say X years after the zoning.

Very simple system to implement.

Extension etc never took off this year. A substantial amount got cancelled. As did one off houses after people got the price. Refurbishment of houses stopped as well. This is reflected in the price of houses that need refurbishment that are for sale with little or no interest.

Why would building be cyclical at present with demand.

Any building material that has carbon tax on it will struggle to drop in price. Ready mix concrete has a carbon tax at present of about 30/cubic meter, there is supposed to be another 8-10 going on it shortly. This would be reflected in concrete blocks prices as well

This is the key. So many on Boards keep equating a recession = property crash.

Im not advocating for price growth in a recession as there’s no doubt that an economic downturn can have a negative impact on value. But whilst a recession generally results in people losing their jobs, a recession isn’t automatically bad for everybody, and not all recessions are created equal.

We have a serious supply shortage with huge demand such that even if these two factors converged closer together, provided banks are still lending then its quite feasable house prices do not crash as demand will still exceed supply.

If we get a liquidity crisis....then thats a different story. Its going to be an interesting 6-12 months.