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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,468 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    How naive.

    Actually they can if their policies lead to job losses, wage reductions, reduced foreign investment, slow down in private developers building houses, more LLs leaving the rental sector, spending policies which drain the public purse and lead to higher taxation etc etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,600 ✭✭✭quokula


    They can do worse, much much much worse. I genuinely fear for what would happen to the country under their mismanagement.

    And yes, house prices probably will go down as that's what happens during periods of recession and mass unemployment rather than the current period of a buoyant job market, strong foreign investment and high standards of living that Ireland is enjoying compared to most of the world in pretty turbulent times following a pandemic and during a major war in Europe.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    In the event of things blowing up I will give you one guess as to who is going to lose out the most.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,503 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    As Moore McDowell said years ago and he got castigated for it Joe Sixpack

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 721 ✭✭✭drogon.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,468 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    And the question that will be asked, “why me?”.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The last recession was great for renters that kept there jobs, huge uplift in standard of living. 5 years to accumulate a deposit and be ready for when the banks started lending again, it wasn't so bad for people that lost their jobs even, speaking from a household that lost 2 incomes

    It was the young folk that came after us that paid the highest price. In Ireland and especially housing those least culpable pay the price.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,468 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    No doubt the plight of renters was helped by the over 300k people who emigrated during the recession. It takes a particular type of revisionist to think the recession benefited renters and standards of living. Property/rental prices certainly dropped, but no one could borrow money, many could not afford to rent etc, some lucky people could, and they did well. Kinda sounds like the situation today, except it’s good times for the well paid, less so yhe the average earner.

    Maybe the debt from the next recession can be passed on to the young folk, of the young folk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Ah Jesus, are we now saying the 2008 recession wasn't bad?



  • Registered Users Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    I dont think its really ever ended for many of us. I cant buy a home in Dublin on a middle income salary as a single person and renting is hell. Id actively vote for SF to MAKE 2008 happen again, best case I get a cheaper place to buy worse case the rich see a drop in their wages and we become more equal. I dont think many posters here understand just how big of an impact locking celtic tiger raised people out of the property market has had on our mindsets. A person I work with is emigrating next month despite making 60k because she cant buy a house and all of my 28 - 32 year old circle of UCD and Trinity educated middle income friends are enthusiastically voting for SF because we see the entire system as inter generationally fixed and are willing to lose a job to bring it down, all because we cannot buy homes in Dublin



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,468 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Would worse case scenario not be you lose your job and not be able to either buy or rent? In being able to buy a cheaper place, you are assuming you/your wage would be unaffected by a 2008-type recession.

    Why do you think you would be insulated? If you are 28, chances are you are too young to remember what 2008 was like.

    I admire your friend’s decision to look beyond where he/she is today, I’m less impressed with you whining that the system is rigged cause you can’t afford to buy in Dublin. There is a life beyond the county boundary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    I lost my job and covid and Im still living with my parents, I didnt really care. I hated renting and I wasnt my home. I know a lot the same. Renting is a temporary roof. I'll never rent again, I only want to own, its the only thing seen as normal in Ireland and we locked the young out of being normal



  • Registered Users Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    On emigration, I almost moved to Canada last year, didnt go because the visa is only 2 years.

    I'll likely end up having to buy in Meath or Louth but thats enough of a bad prospect for me to want to tear the system down. Lots agree with me and that is solely the reason SF are so popular.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    @Housing99 'A person I work with is emigrating next month despite making 60k because she cant buy a house'

    Why does she need or want to buy a single-family house if she is by herself?

    She could get a one-bed apartment in Dublin on that salary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,468 ✭✭✭✭Dav010




  • Registered Users Posts: 161 ✭✭Housing99


    I would assume its because she doesnt have a 50,000 euro deposit and also doesnt want to live in Balbriggan

    But sure claim its not a real issue, because this head in the sand is whats putting SF into power

    The best way to save the status quo if you think its good is to tax the jaysus out of assets to bring down house prices or demand an end to restricted mortgage lending. Basically do anything and everything so working people can buy in Dublin again



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I'm not claiming the housing crisis isn't a real issue.

    However it is people on incomes lower than 60k who must move out to Balbriggan. Your colleague could get a one-bed apartment in Smithfield, Santry, Chapelizod, Inchicore, Citywest, Park West, Beaumont, Tallaght, Ongar, Dublin 8 and Dublin 15.

    What she can't get is a house built for a family of four all to herself. Or an apartment in Dublin 2, 4, 6.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    Perhaps you are right about the way people will vote....but sinn fein won't achieve any of that if they are voted in imo......hurlers on the ditch at best imo,


    They may (I fact I think its highly probable) make the situation worse although the incumbents are such a shower its hard to see them deliberately adopting inflationary/counterproductive measures...


    I think its a runaway train at this stage and FG/FF know it and are attempting the hospital pass so they can watch SF shoot themselves in the foot and get back in next cycle when people are out for SF blood ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05



    The young folk of the young folk will be paying for 08, plus the pensions deficit.

    I get from your post that your starting to see the benefits of sustainable economy rather than the boom bust we are hooked onto



  • Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    This is genuinely a nonsensical post.

    I have no idea where the notion that people who struggle to buy today would find it easier post-market-collapse comes from.

    The only way house prices fall is if demand collapses. Nobody seems to actually understand what demand collapsing means, they think it's going to affect everyone but themselves. What it actually means is a huge number of people who are trying to buy houses now (i.e. you) are going to be unable to buy, for any number of reasons like:

    1. They've lost their job
    2. They're income has been cut
    3. The bank restricts it's lending / they find the bank is now saying no
    4. Current homeowners can not to upgrade - market becomes stuck
    5. Current homeowners go into arrears - cannot sell
    6. Output drops as developers scale down

    The reason people picked up cheap gaffes after 2008 was because we had a ton of excess stock. This does not exist today. Rents were low as we suddenly had a ton of unexpected landlords with negative equity property they couldn't offload. This does not exist today.

    You say the "rich see a drop in their wage and we become more equal". If the "rich" see a drop in their wages, why on earth do you think you won't see a drop in yours? The two things are not separate. What do you think happens when the government tax take is reduced? What do you think happens when the "rich" people have less money to spend in the economy? Again, those hit hardest will be those at the bottom of the ladder. If anything, the equality will get worse, since the "rich" are generally able to absorb drops in income better than the less well off.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭manniot2


    Cannot buy in Dublin or cannot buy in D4,6,8? There are plenty of houses for middle income people in Dublin. Check out Lucan or Swords. Granted you will probably need to be in a couple to get anything more than an apartment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    That's the issue though - renters in Ireland don't have a high standard of living. It's a mess, we have completely run out of (available) accommodation in most of our country.

    The situation has made an awful lot of people feel like they're locked out of having a stake in society.

    I agree an alternative government could be much much worse overall, but we really can't act surprised when they're voted in at this point.

    Wether we like it or not, renting is temporary in this country, its not secure, its expensive, and generally its of a poor standard. If you trap people in that mess ... they'll eventually say screw it, and vote for chaos.



  • Registered Users Posts: 493 ✭✭Shauna677




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Spot on. I was guilty of this kind of thinking myself for a while until I realised if and when things turn for the worst it won't be the boys in the offices on the top floor who feel it first. It will be the shitkickers like myself who are out the door. How will I buy anything with no job?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,503 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I am sixtyish years of age. I am from that cohort that never went to Trinity's or to any other university. I married when I was 29. For two years before that both me and my wife saved very hard to put a deposit in place.

    I knew very few single people who bought house in there twenties or even in there thirties. We were in the midwest not in Dublin. Two single lads bought houses. One won a shared lotto where he worked. He won 60 k. The other lad had a small inheritance that allowed him bridge the gap. They got people to move in with them.

    You have to remember we were a generation that some started working from 15 years of age maybe younger. Lads left school at that age. Your generation are 8-10 years longer in education and expect to leave college and buy a houses.

    I spend 3-4 years in digs and the rest of the time renting until we build our home. Most of that time renting I shared a room in a house with one bathroom.

    While my rent was cheaper than the present generation car costs were astronomical back the. The insurance for my first car was 800 pounds( over 1000 euro) for the year. The car did not cost much more it was 12-15 weeks wages as I was an apprentice. I even paid tax out of my apprentice's wages.

    When I qualified my wages were 140/ week due to the tax system I took home about 105 out if it. Even out if that wage and my insurance dropping to 450 euro I was paying more than 4 weeks wages for car insurance.

    I did not live in Dublin so there was no public transport system. I didn't go to college because my mother could never have afforded it. She was widowed twice and had to rear eight children.

    Maybe I was lucky I did not go to Trinity.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    You forgot the bit of farming you do too, extra added hardship that trinity couldn't even compare to. 3rd level education (3rd level degree myself) is just another new enslavement and money racket, all to feed the college industry. NUIG building huge college campus accommodation and charging 1200 a month, crazy stuff.

    People literally spending arms and legs in college, comming out with alot of degrees that are basically not worth the parchments it's printed on, and a job in dublin on a graduate scheme for **** all. If I could do it all again I would take a trade, work around home where I grew up and shuffle with sheep and cattle just for the added hardship.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,468 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Maybe you just didn’t learn how to benefit from your third level education, that bit can’t be taught, but it is invaluable.

    Besides, aren’t trades at least partly taught in colleges now? Seem to remember reading that electricians had to attend classes as part of their training/certification, but I could be wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Well funny enough I done fairly okay out of my degree as I have a role in my work that allows me to base myself out of the North West even though its a dublin job, odd meeting maybe once a week in dublin but I have a company car so that isn't really a problem. I was lucky I graduated in 2015 and got in at the right time college now is off the reterscale so I can see the disgust from the younger people.

    As regards trades I still feel all the years I spent grafting paying crazy rents in dublin in order to luckily get the role I'm in down was the greatest waste ever and I would have been way better off for all those years if I had a trade and worked around home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,503 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Did I say anything about hardship. I mearly pointed out differences between generations and perceptions. There is an expectation now that you can have after 4-6 years working that took a different generation 10-12 years and more to achieve. And they did not achieve that as a single person.

    You think that now about a trade. You will not think that in 20 years time. As a 40-50 year old you will getting up at 6-6.30 am in the morning leaving home 15-20 minutes later and driving 30-90 minutes to work. You will not be working every Saturday. Ya the lad in the trade is out earning you now. But a recession could drop his wages in half. There is very few trades people I know that did not spend 5-10 years abroad at some stage in there life. If not that they maybe spend that amount of time working away from home.

    With in ten years you will have a totally different outlook to now

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    "I married when I was 29. For two years before that both me and my wife saved very hard to put a deposit in place" -> this is impossible today for most. Utterly impossible. No matter how hard someone works to save. And that's just saving a deposit in 2 years, never mind paying for a wedding!

    "There is an expectation now that you can have after 4-6 years working that took a different generation 10-12 years" -> this is patently false, look at home-ownership rates for 30-somethings in this country, the majority of whom have a decade+ working. Never mind that home ownership in early-mid 20's was far from unheard of for your generation, even for modest earners.

    It is, once again, so demoralising to see that, for you and many of your generation, your view is essentially that you were 'hardier' than the generation(s) that followed.



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