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General British politics discussion thread

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    When inflation gets to double figures, the economy is in real trouble.

    With that rate of inflation, then prices start rising - 'because of inflation' - which is inflation chasing inflation. Now because the Gov collects taxes based on declared incomes where higher incomes get higher taxes, a 10% rise in take home pay requires a pay rise of 15% for those on high tax rates, which means further rises in prices, which feed on further inflation - well inflation going out of control. And of course, they need the pay rise now, and another one next month.

    It will take a generation to bring inflation back under control. Raising interest rates by BoE will be inflationary in the short to mid term, raising mortgage rates, which should effect house prices negatively - another Tory no-no.

    VAT is a consumption tax that increases as prices rise. Is a VAT reduction part of the pledge by the contestants for PM to cut taxes? I doubt it. I think tax cuts equals a cut in corporation tax and reduction in the highest income tax rates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    Having lived and worked through 1980s British rollercoaster inflation it was brought under control in a fairly short time(4 or 5 years).Although not a good situation,hopefully the UK public have had a belly full of the tories.Having said that, Ireland doesn't have to contend with a tory government and is in the EU but isn't far behind the UK inflation rate at 9.6%



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, inflation in Ireland has a few causes - energy prices, particularly gas, then there is Brexit which has caused imported stuff from the UK to rise in price due to extra paperwork, plus the imposition of VAT on UK cars. We need importers to begin to diversify to EU suppliers, but lazy ones will not bother - just pass on the extra charges, and some are just UK companies with Irish offices. M&S are 25% dearer* than the same goods on sale in the UK.

    The inflation in the UK took off a lot earlier than the 1980s. It really began in the 1960s, and really took off in the oil crisis (which is an energy crisis) so it took until the 1990s before it was under control. That by my reckoning is a generation.

    We handled Covid better and we will handle inflation better.

    [Edit: *Just checked an M&S white shirt - £29.50 UK, and €44 in Ireland - which taking VAT and exchange into account is 22% dearer for the identical product.

    You will find the same pattern with most UK supplied items by companies that have a presence in Ireland]



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,238 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Scheduled maintenance of a month every 18 months would only result in 3 offline at a time, or perhaps 5 or 6 in summer to keep more online in winter.

    27 reactors offline all at once for an extended period ?

    It's not a specific point during the year French nuclear hasn't been above 50% of name plate capacity since the middle of April.


    The Conservative government in the UK has been under investing in infrastructure and it's already bitten them. The UK used to be able to store 30% of annual gas demand.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,238 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Conservative Home poll :

    asked what might happen as costs rise, a majority of people said: people having utilities cut off; boycotts of bills; more homelessness; more shoplifting; more home repossessions. A third say general disorder.

    Only 13% reckon they will get a pay rise that keeps pace with inflation. 18% have cancelled a holiday plan in the last month.

    75% of poorer voters (DE) would lass than a month if main earner lost their job (40% + 35% already have nothing left now)


    Liz wants to keep going with Boris' plan to cut 91,000 civil servants (last year they were planning to cut the Army back to 72.500)


    But what may matter more to electors of the next PM is house prices which may drop before the next general election.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    Compelling plan announced by Shapps to erode the power of unions targeting low paid workers, those that rely on public transport. Users of the trains are more likely to not own a car and work menial jobs. Those better paid office types are free to WFH during travel disruption.


    Minimum service must be run just like European countries much lauded by the left - lauded selectively that is. Minimum service during strikes conveniently not mentioned.

    The rail unions are not striking against low pay or redundancy, these do not apply in this case. They are striking against reform of outdated work practices and need to be prevented. Why should unions be allowed to put rail users lives at risk by preventing track inspection by technology?

    Also getting very sinister from Lynch trying to use unions influence to bypass the electoral system and politicians to decide policy with "generalised action and synchronised responses from the trade union movement" against interest rate rises and housing costs.

    Post edited by salonfire on


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,709 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Not a great move if the low paid workers support the strike.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,170 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    They are also striking over changes in work practices that amount to a reduction of manning on trains - which they say is a safety issue.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,485 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    On a recent trip to Birmingham, two men ran the whole train. So yeah, I can see where they might be coming from.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Look, the DLR has no-one running the train.

    If the train requires a driver and a guard then removing the guard may well be an issue. Just having a driver might be an issue.

    Reducing manpower is not necessarily a safety issue, nor is it necessarily safe to do so. Those who work the trains probably know which is which. I do not, but it is a pay issue - at least to the bean counters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,709 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    With TFL the big issue was station staff and it is definitely a safety issue when you have the kind of numbers going through and not one person live at the ticket desk in case there is an issue. Leaks or damage for instance or problems with gates.

    Imagine a staff free pub and you get the idea what Southwark station would be like at 8pm most days.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,170 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    They are striking over pay first and then work practice changes second. The UK govt want the train operators and NR to link any pay rise to work practice change, the unions say no, pay rise first then we talk about work practice change (which will be linked to separate pay award)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    It is a pity that the MPs can award themselves pay rises with no real need to strike and also no question of safety issues.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,094 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I'm not so sure about. I know they voted against it in 2021 at their conference but it seems that things having been changing in the other direction ever since. Everyone knows that the unions are extremely influential in the Labour party and the two largest, now back moving to PR.




    from that second article written by popular Labour Mayor Andy Burnham:

    What I am proposing is cooperating now on a programme for political reform. At a grassroots level, Labour is moving towards support for PR. If the party as a whole were to embrace it, it paves the way for an agreement with other parties on wider reforms: an elected senate of the nations and regions to replace the Lords and maximum devolution of power out of Westminster.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,560 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Things may go from bad to worse if Citi analysts are correct...

    UK inflation projected to hit 18.6% as gas prices surge

    Surging wholesale gas prices are putting the UK on a path to exceed 18 per cent inflation next year, the highest rate among larger western economies, according to a report from Citigroup.

    The bank’s projection heaps more pressure on candidates for the Conservative leadership to address a worsening cost of living crisis and came as UK gas prices for next-day delivery surged as much as 33 per cent.




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,238 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Barristers and posties on strike too, please let them delay a surge of Conservative Party leader votes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,499 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It reminds me of Ireland around the time of the financial crash (perhaps even worse in many ways).



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,709 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's not just the numbers either. My last year in London (2019) the sense of gloom and constant going away parties had that same sinking ship feeling



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,560 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Not for the first time, John Major blames Johnson & many in his cabinet for the ongoing damage to the UK...




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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,499 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    One key difference is that civic society never broke down in Ireland during the crash, not even when it was at its lowest points.

    The UK by contrast appears to be in a considerably worse position heading into autumn 2023. Talk of widespread strikes and civil disobedience, perhaps even rioting on the streets, not to mention food and energy poverty on a huge scale.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,709 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Civil society never broke down in Ireland cause we were all too busy emigrating. Didn't some TD get in trouble for praising our pressure valve at the time.

    I think people in the UK are more likely to use protest and civil disobedience as a go to so things could get ugly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,499 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I think the Irish media largely acted responsibly as well and didn't stoke the flames. Problem with the UK currently is that it was already a deeply divided society even before this energy and inflation crisis kicked off - making it something of a potential powder keg.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,300 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Irish media stoked the property boom and largely ignored discussion on a possible bust.

    Regarding the idea of rioting, whilst it happens from time to time in the UK (60 million plus people), the vast majority are law abiding and don't agree with rioting.

    The last time it happened on a wide scale, outside of the North, it seemed most people in Britain were horrified by the London riots in 2011.

    Those arrested over that were given harsh sentences in the courts.

    People here must be mistaking English people with French people, who have much more tendency to protest and riot. English, like the Irish, are more passive and take their anger out at the ballot box.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,300 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    What's this thing about British people being deeply divided?

    My observation is that ordinary people in Britain tend to be polite and not bring up political leanings and politics in general. The same is the case in Ireland.

    What's the daily evidence of this division?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,499 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It's a fair question. Evidence of the division would be that the conservative and right wing half of England gave an obvious shyster and con artist like Johnson an 80 seat majority i.e. they inflicted the current mess on their own country, no matter how much they try to deny it. It's certainly true that people are generally not arguing about this in face to face interactions, but that doesn't mean that division doesn't exist or that there isn't huge inequality.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,954 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Guardian saying that unless something is done about energy prices 70% of all pubs in the UK will not survive the winter, other industries and sectors must also be seeing similar forecasts. The phrase sleep walking into a crisis is thrown around a lot but god how could you describe it any differently. Ireland is gonna be in for a rough winter but if the Tories keep going the way they are it will be nothing in comparison.




  • Registered Users Posts: 25,709 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    In my own experience there is little argument due to the geography of the division. Places are so red or so blue it would be pointless.

    There was certainly a lot of conversation about Brexit, Corbyn and May/Johnson though. It was a constant topic in pubs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,300 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    They voted for the Tories because a lot of English people, almost half, usually vote for the Tories at every election.

    A lot of middle ground voters in England just don't like or trust Labour to govern their country. It's as simple as that.

    So I really don't see this division people are talking about or wishing for. It's certainly no where near as bad as the 70s and early 80s in Britain.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,300 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Don't we get a lot of our gas from Scotland?

    If anything the situation for us could be dire.



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