Russia - threadbanned users in OP

At the ranges they are currently hitting its a possibility they already have some or similar not all of these strikes are from HiMars

Add the 18th to that

If true, desperation

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1560341505327484928

I doubt it very much that Russian want to drag NATO into the war...they have so far studiously avoided any action that might trigger NATO involvement, because it would be suicidal for them. NATO could seriously degrade Russian war capabilities in a matter of days, to the extent that as a fighting force, they would be finished, And that in turn might well be the straw that broke the camels back, or to put it another way, Putin launches his oft threatened Nuclear strikes.

WOW.....I wonder what has changed with them so. Russian reporting is notoriously economic with the truth, and especially when it comes to military setbacks. Unless of course, they will use it to back up their claim that they are defending Russians from the Ukrainian Nazis and NATO and the West in general. But at this stage will the Russian public still believe them? Or have doubts steadily been creeping in for more and more Russians, and not just the one's who have lost family members to Putins madness?

They are a bit more sparse on details compared to the Western media, but the explosions at Belgorod for example have been reported, so the Russian public are aware of it.

I remember early on in this discussion saying that Ukraine could well and truly give putin a bloody nose, but it's like he's been dragged into a bears cave and he's being played with and wondering when he's going to be finally eaten , surely the Serbians who are being baited by Russia to be kick off with Kosovo must be looking on and thinking if things kick off Russia isn't coming to save them

I feel we are entering the next phase of the war. Russia will be pushed back. I just cannot see them holding any ground while Ukraine is getting so much aid and the whole western world is against Putin. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for NATO to destroy the adversary it was created to protect against and I am sure that while the war is not in the news as much Russia will be ground down to collapse.

I've been pondering the impact of potentially destroying the Kerch bridge and taking it out permanently.

First, if the Kerch bridge was hit badly enough to need extensive repairs, I get the impression that unless Russia can machine and install the parts themselves, they might not have the means to actually make repairs. The Soviet Union could have done it, but I'm not so sure about the modern Russian Federation.

If the bridge is out for good, then they need to go back to using boats to cross the Kerch Strait. Assuming they haven't already dismantled the ports that used to handle that traffic, all land transport will have to go to Crimea via ships, creating a massive bottleneck in their military & logistics traffic.

I feel this would have 2 impacts, in particular to the Kherson front:

The first is logistical. Kherson was invaded via Crimea and is likely still supplied via Crimea. They have a "land-bridge" to Russia via Southern Ukraine and Donbas, but this route lacks a direct rail link. The rail links into Donbas would have to be rebuilt or built from scratch. The only direct(-ish) rail link is via Crimea and the Kerch Bridge. Loosing the bridge would make supplying the Russians there all the more difficult. They could have the option of airlifts into Crimea, but you'd need several plane loads to match a cargo train, and even then you still need to use trucks to get that stuff up to Kherson. What little material the Russians had for that fight will probably fall to beyond critical levels.

The second impact would be morale, or more importantly, the sense that they always had the option to retreat to Russia proper if things got too bad. There's a real possibility of Russians getting trapped on the Right Bank of the Dniper and within Kherson if Ukraine can make the 2 only crossings in that area useless. But worse still, you can add the idea that even if they retreat into Crimea and are chased there by a successfully advancing Ukraine, they are going to feel the need to scramble for an airlift or to that bottleneck at the Kerch ferry port. The possible panic of these situations would descend into absolute chaos. It could turn into a rout of a scale unseen since the Korean War.

This is all assuming that Ukraine can damage the Bridge badly enough and that Russia will not have the means to repair it.

Why do you think Russia wouldn't be able to repair the bridge? Russia built it, not the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union baulked at the idea of building it due to Spring ice flows I think. Although Russia is impacted by current sanctions, I would imagine they still have the ability to repair the bridge.

Might well take a while , and depending on which spans of the bridge were to be damaged it might well block or slow ship traffic through the Kerch straits altogether ..

Seems like shooting the bridge is part of a strategy to isolate the troops trapped on the Ukraine side of the Dnipro. The '10000 bee sting' approach shown last night might just be there to ratchet up the pressure, via the Russian people, who may actually be hearing about this. I'd expect lots of activity in Crimea through the weekends. And the orcs will commit more atrocities since it's all they've got.

Interesting summary in the Torygraph of all places. Paywalled so archive.ph link