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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Nope. We tried this already, doesn't work. Putin has gone full totalitarian and is literally attacking Europe, doesn't make any sense to be energy reliant on such a regime, that bridge is fully burnt. As for sanctions, they'll stay as long as Putin is invading and seizing European territory (which will never stop), so they're pretty much forever sanctions, unless the Russians get rid of him (highly unlikely)

    This winter and the next will be painful, but by then we'll almost be fully off Russian energy. It's a good jolt for renewables also.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The West obviously miscalculated..

    They thought that between the war and the sanctions they'd take down Putin..

    Now we have to deal with the consequences of all the hard talk of the last few months..

    It's not just the price of gas..that has massive knock on consequences across the economy..

    And it's never going to go back to how it was..

    We're being led by imbeciles..



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    This rhetoric worked to an extent in the summer. However facts are that winter in half of the europe means temperatures of minus 15-20 and tons of snow which can not be dismissed with "This winter and the next will be painful". I would not speculate about painfulness or pure survivability of this winter for most of the eu countries. Anyone who suggest we can get through without Russian gas do not have a clue what they talk about - most of commenters here never experienced proper winter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    And yet eu total gdp grew while Russias collapsed

    not to long before visa ban comes in, only matter of time before Russian Nazis commit yet another atrocity, you better get your bags packed and look forward to not having to endure us Irish



  • Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    wow...so after 2 1/2 years of "protecting granny and grandad" and closing down society to do the same, we're now willing to feed them to the wolves just so we can stick it to putin?

    if major plans are not urgently put in place for heating throughout europe this winter, a lot of old and disabled people are gonna be found dead in their houses and apartments



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    So they won't keep 3 reactors going over Winter because it would only save 2% of the gas supply. No drama it's only one weeks supply of gas for the whole country, i'm sure they will find that kicking around somewhere or go without for a week instead.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Just another 10% in half an hour. Demand for gas is 150% more in winter than now.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    A lot of the "puck Putin we'll do without his gas" posters on here are posting from their parents box room. They've more than likely never paid a bill in their lives unless it was their x box subscription although mammy probably paid that for them also. They should get back to playing Minecraft and let the adults discuss the real world geo political ramifications of trying to get through the winter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Oil down on fears of economic slowdown. 95$ is already a very low level considering the situation we are in. So the money men are thinking there's problems ahead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    All the sanctions were applied by the west/Europe regarding energy from very early on so you can't say it's Putin.

    They were self sacrificing sanctions done by the EU without any input from its citizens.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Gdp means nothing to us when we are paying through the nose for stuff. Grand if your a refugee landing here getting free benefits, but nothing to ordinary Joe paying tax.

    Id rather pay Putin cheap money for cheap gas so Europe can return to normal then pay the US big money for the same gas.

    Ukrianie is not in the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Isn't this a great example of how articles can be portrayed as positive or negative depending on your bias?

    One poster - oil prices are going down - good for the consumer and the economy

    Another poster - oil prices are going down, its a sign of lack of confidence in the economy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Jamie Dimon Head of JP Morgan telling all his billion dollar investment people in private meetings (minutes leaked last week) that there is serious pain ahead and to go to cash. Jp Morgan company on Bloomberg and media saying bear market is over and there is no real chance of a recession.

    Wonder why that is get the licks of the average Joe's to buy in so the heavies can sell out too cash and were left holding the bag.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    It's a non issue sure

    They will just wear an extra jumper. Nobody is concerned about gas supply and cost.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I am curious, have any of ye with private pension funds changed the fund breakdown to have less equity/property and more cash/bonds?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    It was Putin, 100%. He made the decision to invade Ukraine, we applied sanctions. Of course the sanctions will hurt us, no one was under any illusions, but they are hurting Russia more (although not as much as we'd like). Also, there are new sanctions being passed on a regular basis. Unless Putin is deposed or something dramatic happens, these sanctions will be there for your lifetime, we're never going back to being energy reliant on Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Not really because you need to look at the reason why the price is going down.

    Oil price dropping due to an increase in output by oil companies is good for the consumer.

    Oil price dropping due to fears of economic problems ahead does not bode well.

    If there was a banking collapse tomorrow, oil would crater. Is this good for the consumer?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Of course not, but you didn't even read the whole article, just the part that confirmed your own thoughts. It speculates it could be due to:

    Fears over the global economy

    A strengthening dollar making it more expensive for other currencies to buy oil

    Slowing fuel demand in China


    Naturally you focused on point one and ignored the other two. Its the theme of this thread though, just two sides cherry picking articles to suit their point.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Those 3 are all the one thing.

    Why is the dollar strengthening? Because the Fed are increasing interest rates. The ECB either need to do the same, which will decrease economic activity or they do nothing and our imports get extremely expensive. The end results are similar no matter what happens.

    And of course problems in China would overflow to the rest of us. Things are apparantly in an awful state there, videos circulating of them demolishing half finished apartment blocks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12




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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It is going down because the market view a recession as reducing demand.


    Ultimately that is what will help end the recession.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    A strengthing dollar is bad for the global economy, especially in Asia, many of them have borrowed in dollars and that squeezes them.


    Slowing fuel demand in China, the 2nd largest economy in the world is also going to ripple across the world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Have most of my holding in metals, gold, silver, platinum etc.. and cash. I wouldn't trust a pension fund at the best of times but it's pure muppetry and bad financial advice having big pension holdings at present.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Whether there is a recession is for many a moot point, if growth is 4,% and inflation is 10% that's a brutal and painful drop.


    Personally I think a recession is very likely. Lots of businesses are under severe pressure now, my own included.


    Whether it is global is a question though. It is a locked in certainly for Western Europe though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    But as a counterpoint, surely slowing fuel demand in China is positive for Europe where fuel prices are skyrocketing?

    I agree that recession is inevitable in many western countries at this point though



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I probably should do that, not for all that's in it anyway only started it about 3 years ago. I do believe we will see a crash and prices will drop but I still think we won't see inflation going below 4% even with a deflationary downturn. Food price with fertiliser, gas, electricity the necessities will keeping infation well above the target of 2%.

    Worst thing is too if there does come a deflationary downturn CBs will just quantitative ease their way out of it again, save the big boys and re inflate the asset price back up and the casino starts again. Its a shambles and the jig is up. I think for a real economy to appear again they need to let the big guys that mismanaged go bang let the economy reset, otherwise all we will ever see is a fake economy driven by central banks



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Like some poster said here awhile back my emails from Linked Fiance for buissness looking for moneys is an order of magnitude higher than I have ever say it before. Looks like they finding it hard to get money off banks and looking to peer to peer lending. This is definitely not a good sign. All SMEs too



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    True, it does help us in that way but will that be balanced out by reduced demand in Asia etc


    Recession sowing the seeds of the next upturn.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Will you stop. Its a separate issue.

    How many sanctions did we apply to other countries in shady wars. Lets take the illegal Iraq invasion. We applied none to any country during that war, and none after it.



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