Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Thing could be worse, of course, but this is not a licence or permission to continue with doomed policy, it should be motivation to fix it. High unaffordable House prices can crash an economy quicker than any alternative

Multiple opportunities have been missed to sort this out, with more on the way mainly a housing construction recession (UK, US) . This brings deflationary materials environment and larger pool of available labour

Government states tackling inflation is their number 1 priority, you don't need to be a genius to know that the heaviest life costs are so because of government interderence.

Sent my daughter to summer camp for a week over the summer, the cost was half what it would be to send her to creche. The summer camp was in university facility which I imagine they paid a fee for.

Creche's are bogged down with forms, questionable staff ratios, insurance and extortionate rents

Rather odd that the business friendly party had the balance of power for the last decade and a half then

Wonder how many tds are from the legal profession and other professions that the Irish consumer gets hammered

Back to property

Alot of lucrative business with councils through rents and sales including doubling the price of a house in less than 3 months

"Fianna Fáil Junior Minister Robert Troy used Dáil speaking time to call for more funding for a State rental scheme which he currently receives an income from"

I can see a scenario where multi-generational mortgages will be the norm. Anyone who was saying prices are coming down need to look at immigration numbers and the slow down of new builds being built. No price drops for at least 5 years and if immigration inward continues we will be indefinitely be at a deficit when it comes to housing

It's been mentioned the property crisis is occurring in a lot of (developed) countries. But I would argue that the situation in Ireland is acutely worse. In trying to do a very rough comparison with UK & AUS:

• In RoI, there are approx 5.1 million people with 784 rentals available on Daft.ie at the time of posting. On a per capita basis thats roughy 1 rental for every 6,500 people. NOTE: This is not a meaningful statistic, other than using it for compartative purposes.
• In Australia with a population of 27.1 million, realestate.com.au dominates much like Daft. Its showing approx 52,400 rentals, which translates to roughly 1 rental for every 520 people.
• In the UK, harder to get a figure but a quick search I found a report that said in March this year there were just 64,800 rentals in UK (population 67.4 million). That equates to roughly 1 for every 1040 people.

Ireland is a basket case when it comes to housing its people. Our rental market is so dysfunctional it is actually causing severe societal harm & economic problems.

It appears that I have been too complimentary on the government in their attempts to deliver housing for people to buy, the most up to date data shows that only 1 in 4 new builds were made available for sale to the public.

"Affordable" homes scheme are priced at 450k for Dublin and 400k for Cork and Galway. This requires an above average income and the top 20% of household income.

Almost everyone has been priced out of new builds

82% of the open planning permissions in Dublin are for inferior build to rent properties.

Maybe/maybe not if you think of the positives when your considering your kids and they pick up the mortgage when you retire and you live there till you pop your clogs no CGT and your kids has a good portion of the mortgage already paid and can sell up without any taxing on the profit made then your kids would have a decent bit of cash to buy. Just saying it will become an option if the current dynamic of new builds stalling, population increasing at 300k a year and new incentives for FTBs to buy pushing up prices.

Could you repost if you have to hand please?

Well what is the alternative your kids to continue renting and wait for you to die to pay a shed load on tax for the property at least the mortgage they have will be half paid if not more and the debt built up by health, pensions and government will still be there one way or the other.. I cannot see how it will not become an option in the future if our trends in migration, building and political interference in the market continue.. The other side of this is people were betting on another property crash and have waited about a decade for this a lot of these people are in there 40s/50s and may not have any other option as banks normally only lend to someone up until they are 65.

A lot of first world countries are also having issues with inflation and housing.

The likes of Canada/US/Sweden/Oz/NZ (to name a few) seem to be having varying degrees of HP 'corrections'. Will we be similar?

Maybe, but put yourself in the position of many renters who would love to buy. You cant buy because of little supply available to the public and high prices. You are struggling pay rent, save for a deposit and have a quality of life at the same time. All the while fearing getting an eviction notice on your overpriced rental, knowing you face living in your car or back in with the parents if your lucky enough. How does it get worse?

Fundamentally it is a lack of supply at a time of increased demand. Rent caps were merely a reaction to this. I agree with your view on Rent caps. Whilst the idea may have merit - under certain conditions - they are just another market intervention with unintended consequences.

As supply dwindles, further measures are introduced to protect renters which are disadvantageous to small landlords. Given high prices now acheived, small landords are being effectively incentivised to sell often by realising a capital gain and losing a headache at the same time, which in turn is further reducing rental supply. And round and round it goes...